Bren Institute geologist warns of potential massive earthquake in Mentawai-Siberut sector

TEMPO.CO, Bandung – Danny Helman Natawidjaja, a researcher in geology and disasters at the National Research and Innovation Agency, highlighted the great potential for a major earthquake to occur in the Mentawai-Sibirut sector and the Sunda Strait. While the exact timing of such an event remains unpredictable, the risks require increased public awareness and preparedness.

“Minimizing losses must be done through intensified efforts,” Danny stressed on Wednesday, August 21, 2024. These efforts must include training residents on evacuation procedures, reviewing and upgrading infrastructure, and strengthening emergency response capabilities.

Danny expressed concern that public preparedness could wane over time, leading people to forget that a major earthquake disaster could strike their area. In particular, the Mentawai-Siberut sector has a proven history of major seismic activity.

“The probability of a massive ejection event is very high indeed,” he added.

Danny noted that an 8.5 magnitude earthquake occurred in the Mentawai-Siberut sector in 1797, and its recurrence period has likely passed without releasing equivalent energy. He explained that the earthquakes that struck in 2007 and 2010 occurred on the edges of the sector, leaving a large amount of untapped energy.

According to Danny, seismic events can occur rapidly, as demonstrated by the 2005 Nias earthquake, which followed the 2004 Aceh earthquake and tsunami. However, these events can also occur over extended periods, as happened in the area around Mentawai.

“The 1797 Mentawai-Sibirot earthquake was followed by the 1830 earthquake to the south,” he said. The two events occurred in the same superthrust zone but in different sectors.

Although a major earthquake is possible, scientists and seismologists cannot accurately predict when it will occur. “It is difficult to use the seismic pattern as a basis for predictions,” Danny added.

Comparison between Indonesia and Japan

Danny drew a comparison between Indonesia and Japan, noting that Japan had issued early warnings of potential megathrust-induced earthquakes, such as the one that followed the 7.1-magnitude quake on August 8. He acknowledged that the circumstances in Japan and Indonesia were different, with Japan having conducted extensive research into megathrust events, allowing for predictions based on statistics and scientific data.

He also said that the Japanese people have become more prepared, as they have a long history of disaster mitigation and taking preparedness measures seriously. “The early warning of earthquakes in Japan has led to a positive response from the public,” he said.

Back in Indonesia, he said the potential for a major earthquake is also high in the Maluku and Nusa Tenggara regions, although seismic data in these areas is limited. The Sunda Strait also poses a high risk, as no major earthquakes have been recorded for centuries, indicating a seismic gap.

Anwar Siwadi (Contributor)

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