Meet the Robert Kennedy Voters Who Could Cause a 2024 Earthquake

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Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is reportedly planning to suspend his campaign as early as Friday, and may endorse former President Trump. But the question remains: Will that affect the race? Based on the people I’ve spoken to, the answer is probably yes.

I'll be honest, in my conversations with voters across our great land, the possibility of Robert F. Kennedy running for president on a third party, a distant possibility, doesn't come up very often, but when it does come up, it's with a very particular type of undecided voter.

The small group of undecided voters I’ve spoken to fall into two categories. The first, and most common, are those who like Trump’s policies and say they were better off when he was in the White House, but who simply don’t like him, personally or morally.

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“I know I’m voting for a president, not a pope,” one woman told me, the anguish evident on her face, “but I still feel this is wrong.”

“A couple in San Francisco told me, ‘We’re both tied up in money and vested interests, and we need a real outsider.’”

Among these voters, nothing Robert Kennedy Jr. does is likely to have much effect. But there is another type of undecided voter I have discovered, a group over which a Kennedy may have some influence.

This group simply does not trust that Trump and the Republicans, or Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democrats, are truly capable of making real change.

“They’re both tied up in money and vested interests,” a couple in San Francisco told me. “We need a real outsider.”

Another voter said to me, “What are we voting for?”

These Americans, a small but important group, were consistently, by a wide margin, more likely to name Robert Kennedy Jr. as a possibility to vote for, even when I never mentioned him. This had nothing at all to do with Kennedy's policy prescriptions.

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This phenomenon is similar to what almost everyone who covered the 2016 primaries experienced: We were mildly shocked when someone in New Hampshire or Iowa said, “For me, it’s Donald Trump versus Bernie Sanders.”

It seemed odd. On the one hand, there was the King of Capitalism, and on the other, there was the Count of Communism, but none of that mattered. These voters wanted someone, anyone, who was not part of the Washington, D.C., mob.

After eight years, Trump has lost much of his outsider status. He is now the official, stable head of the Republican Party, a party he has undoubtedly transformed, but which is also now firmly part of the “system.”

Here, Robert Kennedy Jr.'s potential endorsement of Trump could be a real move, especially if it comes with a promise of some role in the administration.

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The problem that independents in both chambers want is the transparency that comes from an outsider who is on the inside telling them the blunt truth — and urging them to change.

If Kennedy comes out this week to say that he believes Trump is the only one who can break the monotonous monopoly of power in Washington, many of those voters may shift to the former president’s side.

There’s another side of the Robert Kennedy Jr. story that could have a big impact. I haven’t met a single Democratic voter who was truly angry that Joe Biden replaced Harris without getting any votes.

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When Republicans point this out, they are accused of alarmism. After all, if Democrats are happy with the outcome, who cares? Some argue that the GOP is not worried about democracy, but that it might lose now.

Kennedy has a legitimate argument that he himself is the victim of the DNC’s actions. Kennedy, along with others like Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn., called for a full and genuine primary process, but the party told him to kick rocks.

Robert Kennedy Jr.’s warnings about Biden’s unpopularity and weakness have proven prophetic, and now he has the ability to criticize the process in a way that no Republican can.

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Democrats have already begun attacking Kennedy, falsely claiming that he has always been pro-MAGA, but most voters know that is not the case.

In a campaign full of dizzying twists and turns, Robert Kennedy Jr.'s endorsement of Trump may be just a blip in the road, but it could bring Trump a little closer to the finish line.

Click here to read more from David Marcus.

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