Is the North Bay ready for another major earthquake?

While the Aug. 24, 2014, 6.0-magnitude earthquake south of Napa caused widespread damage mostly in downtown Napa, the next quake on the West Napa Fault could affect a wider area — and with greater intensity, experts say.

The West Napa Fault was not a major threat compared to others, such as the San Andreas Fault, until the 2014 earthquake. The quake, which struck at 3:20 a.m., lasted for 20 seconds and caused $326 million in property damage and more than $1 billion in total economic impact to the region.

In the years since, seismologists have taken a closer look at the fault, mapping it more precisely. The latest unpublished maps from the U.S. Geological Survey suggest the fault could produce an earthquake about 32 times stronger than the one in 2014.

Research over the past decade suggests the fault extends 9 miles farther north than previously thought — beyond St. Helena and Calestoga — and perhaps farther south than Vallejo, according to Bill Philipposian, a research geologist with the U.S. Geological Survey.

“Basically, the size of an earthquake a fault line can cause is related to how long it is,” Philipposian said. “The longer the fault, the bigger the earthquake it can cause.”

Philipposian said she expects to release the updated map this fall.

The research indicates that the potential magnitude of the fault is 7.0 on the Richter scale, not 6.8 on the Richter scale as previously thought. The results also indicate that the risk of a severe impact in northern parts of Napa County has increased due to the additional length.

“Every one-magnitude increase is actually 32 times the energy,” Philipposian said. “So you would need 32 of the 2014 earthquakes to be a magnitude 7.”

Given Napa's historic architecture, vibrant downtown, and economic importance of its wine industry, a 7.0 magnitude earthquake could have a profound and long-lasting impact on the social, economic, and cultural fabric of the region.

Previous maps did not use lidar (light detection and ranging) data, which helps map faults that run through densely vegetated landscapes like Napa Valley, Philipposian explained. Lidar was used to improve and more accurately map already recognized fault lines, as well as to identify the new northern segment.

The 2014 earthquake also helped investigate the fault zone, by causing extensive surface movement, Philipposian said.

She added that it is difficult to determine how closely the fault relates to other faults to the south, as long-term urban expansion in Vallejo has changed the landscape, obscuring the fault marks even in the oldest aerial photographs. However, there are recognized fault lines around the Carquinez Strait that extend north toward Vallejo.

“It is possible that the West Napa Fault continues south through Vallejo and connects to those faults farther south, but it is unclear how smooth that connection is — which would make it longer in the south direction,” Philipposian said.

She said it is important for people – especially in California – to know about fault lines in their homes, work and other areas they frequently visit, and to be aware of the seismic risks they face.

“The South Napa earthquake remains an excellent reminder that there are many of these less active faults scattered throughout the Gulf region,” Philipposian said. “It is possible that each of these individual faults produces a devastating earthquake every thousand to several thousand years, which does not seem dangerous.”

“But if you look at all these risks together, they are very significant risks because they are so numerous.”

Better prepared

The South Napa earthquake, along with recent major wildfires, has also inspired an increased focus on disaster preparedness in Napa County. In response to the 10th anniversary of the earthquake, the county government has released a list of resources to help people prepare for disasters, including earthquakes.

This information includes where to get emergency notifications and what to do during an earthquake, as well as what to put in “emergency bags” prepared for a possible earthquake — including items such as canned foods and a portable stove.

Napa County Emergency Services Officer Brianna Jones said memories of the 2014 earthquake are still fresh in her mind. She worked in emergency medical services at American Medical Response at the time, until she got her current job in 2022.

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