Scientists discover the possibility of issuing early warnings of earthquakes

Photo: © :bymuratdeniz | iStock Researchers from the University of Alaska Fairbanks have revealed a promising method for predicting major earthquakes months before they occur.

Led by research assistant professor Tarsilio Girona, the team used advanced machine learning techniques to analyze seismic data leading up to two major earthquakes: the 2018 Anchorage earthquake and the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake series in California.

Predicting earthquakes before they happen

Their study found that abnormal seismic activity, occurring three months before each earthquake, could be a reliable indicator. This seismic activity consists mostly of low-magnitude earthquakes of less than 1.5 on the Richter scale, covering large areas of south-central Alaska and southern California.

“Our paper shows that advanced statistical techniques, especially machine learning, have the potential to identify early indicators of large-magnitude earthquakes by analyzing datasets derived from earthquake catalogs,” Girona said.

The results suggest that increased pore fluid pressure within fault lines may be a major geological factor contributing to these pre-seismic activities. This pressure can alter the mechanical properties of faults, potentially leading to large earthquakes when frictional resistance is overcome.

According to the researchers, their algorithm showed a sharp increase in the probability of a major earthquake within 30 days, reaching 85% just days before events in both Alaska and California. This early warning capability could significantly enhance preparedness efforts, potentially saving lives and reducing economic losses.

Use this in real-time scenarios.

The researchers’ next step is to implement and test their algorithm in real-time scenarios, ensuring its reliability and effectiveness across different seismic zones. They stress the importance of training the algorithm using specific historical seismic data from each zone to improve its accuracy.

This research offers hope for improving earthquake preparedness around the world. By harnessing the power of machine learning and high-performance computing, scientists are unlocking new possibilities in seismology that could reshape disaster response strategies.

As progress continues, it is now possible to provide communities with timely warnings of impending earthquakes. This research not only represents an important scientific achievement, but also underscores the potential of technology to protect vulnerable populations from natural disasters.

For more information about this pioneering study and its implications for earthquake research, the full results are published in Nature Communications.

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