Political earthquake could shatter German establishment in election ━ European Conservatives

The anti-immigration, anti-globalisation Alternative for Germany party is set to achieve its best ever electoral result when it contests regional elections in the states of Saxony and Thuringia on Sunday, September 1.

If confirmed, these results would mark a stunning rejection of Germany's ruling parties and could boost populist votes across Europe.

According to the latest opinion polls, the party, which has been highly critical of Berlin's ruling left-liberal coalition over its pro-immigration, radical green agenda, is expected to come first with 30% of the vote in Thuringia, a seven-point increase on its result five years ago.

In neighboring Saxony, the party is expected to take 31 percent of the vote, up 3.5 points, which would secure it second place behind the CDU (which polled at 33 percent). In Thuringia, the CDU is likely to come in second behind the AfD, at 22 percent.

Opinion polls suggest that eastern Germany is shifting sharply to the right, after three disastrous years with the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) in power in Berlin. Both the AfD and the CDU have criticised the so-called “traffic light coalition” – named after the parties’ colours, red, green and yellow – for overseeing an influx of hundreds of thousands of migrants, a sharp rise in crime, a collapse in security and the burdening of ordinary citizens and farmers with tax increases in the name of climate protection.

The AfD also attacked the government for its strong support for Ukraine in its war with Russia, and cutting Germany off from cheap Russian energy sources, instead of trying to achieve peace.

That sentiment appears to be gaining traction in Germany’s eastern states, where a new party, the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), has adopted a similar approach to the AfD on Ukraine, energy policy and migration. The left-wing nationalists, who broke away from the Left Party last year, are set to take 12% of the vote in Saxony and 17% in Thuringia, coming in third in both states.

Thus, the ruling parties, which are currently performing disastrously in opinion polls at the national level – not just the regional level – will suffer heavy losses in the elections.

In Thuringia, the Greens and the FDP may not even reach the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament, and the SPD will fall to 7% from 8% in 2019. The biggest loser could be the Left Party, which has governed the state in a coalition with the SPD and the Greens since 2014. The party – which Sarah Wagenknecht believes has abandoned its voters by focusing on gender and identity policies, climate change and sexual minorities rather than workers and pensioners – is expected to fall to 14% from the 31% it reached in 2019.

In Saxony, where the CDU governs in coalition with the Social Democrats and the Greens, the FDP and the Left Party are likely to fail to reach the 5% threshold, while the SPD polls at 7% and the Greens at 6%.

Bild described the elections as a potential political earthquake, as the main parties that relied on governing together only to keep the far-right Alternative for Germany party in control will no longer be able to cooperate because they will not have the support of a majority of voters.

CDU leader Friedrich Merz has ruled out any cooperation with the Alternative for Germany (AfD), a party that many in the German establishment are trying to ban for holding “extremist” views – in other words, views that are unacceptable to them.

But the question remains whether the alliance between the CDU and the left-wing BSW is sustainable. Sahra Wagenknecht has refused to enter into alliances with any party that supports military aid to Ukraine or the deployment of US missiles in Germany – two policies that the CDU supports.

“There are different scenarios that could unfold after the election, but in almost all cases they will lead to a serious change in the political landscape in Germany,” according to the conservative publication “Tiesches Einblick”.

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