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Germany on the brink of a far-right political earthquake

Germany on the brink of a far-right political earthquake

 



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The Alternative for Germany party hopes to make big gains in Sunday's elections.

The far right looks set to win the most votes in Germany's local elections for the first time since the Nazi era.

For some people in Germany, the rise of the AfD is a living nightmare.

But others, especially in the east, say the AfD represents an opportunity for change.

Throughout the year, the temperature has been rising in German politics, and Sunday's elections in the states of Thuringia and Saxony may be the boiling point.

“Liar!” a small group of people in Thuringia shouted this week, as Chancellor Olaf Scholz took the stage in the city of Jena.

Chants of “Volksverräter” broke the wider applause, a phrase that means “traitor to the people” and is seen by many to have Nazi connotations.

Reuters

Olaf Scholz was on the campaign trail in Thuringia ahead of Sunday's vote.

Chancellor Scholz's Social Democrats, together with their coalition partners the Greens and the liberals, appear to be doing very poorly in Thuringia, and may not even win a single seat in the state parliament – while the Alternative for Germany party is leading in the polls.

In the neighbouring state of Saxony, the AfD is running alongside the conservative Christian Democratic Union.

Last week's knife attack, in which a Syrian asylum seeker and suspected Islamist was accused of killing three people, has sparked intense criticism of how successive governments have handled immigration.

The knee-jerk – or perhaps panicked – reaction has seen ministers announce tougher asylum and knife crime laws.

Reuters

One protester in the crowd gathered for the chancellor's speech held a sign asking him how many Germans he wanted to kill – a reference to the knife attack in Solingen.

But this is unlikely to overcome the broader discontent that – for many AfD supporters – is not based solely on anger over “mass” immigration.

People also talk about their desire to fight what they see as overly green policies, state intervention, and ill-considered military support for Ukraine.

In the East, all this is mixed with despair and frustration that has been brewing for years, even decades, regarding the results of German reunification.

“You can constantly see where East begins and where West begins,” says 16-year-old Constantin, who rides a Simson S50, an East German-made motorcycle, into Meiningen.

“East and West are now connected. They are one Germany. But we see a great difference between them.”

Constantin, who was born long after German reunification, says you can still see the difference.

The perspective of an auto mechanic's apprentice is one that echoes through the streets of the cities, towns and villages that once made up the communist German Democratic Republic.

Contempt and resentment have been mixed with the West's stronger industrial base, higher wages, and historic pension inequality.

“We are being forgotten,” says Constantin, who insists he supports the AfD, as do many young people, according to opinion polls.

Like all AfD supporters I spoke to, he rejects the accusations of extremism that have increasingly dogged the party.

Earlier this year, a BBC investigation found clear links between party figures and networks considered extremist by state authorities.

In Thuringia, the party is officially classified as a far-right party, while its controversial state leader, Björn Höcke, was recently fined for using a Nazi slogan – although he denies doing so knowingly.

Reuters

Björn Höcke leads the AfD in Thuringia

But party supporters often say they believe domestic intelligence agencies and mainstream media are actively seeking to discredit their movement.

Some may judge this as a dishonest or misleading defense, but there is – in the East – a deep-rooted suspicion of the state among communities that once suffered from the activities of the hated secret police in communist East Germany.

“People who live here have already seen what happens when the government starts to interfere too much,” says Viviane Rothstedt, a 31-year-old lawyer and AfD candidate in Thuringia.

The restrictions imposed during the Covid pandemic, and the perception that people are forced to adhere to “politically correct” views, appear to have increased public distrust.

Viviane Rothstedt is the AfD candidate for the local elections.

“People in eastern Germany know exactly what it is like when you are no longer allowed to express your own opinion,” she tells me, sheltering under her campaign umbrella in the 30-degree heat in Meiningen.

Meanwhile, another rebel party – the Desert Alliance Wagenknecht (BSW) – has managed to push itself into third place in the polls in this state.

Ms. Wagenknecht, a former communist and long one of East Germany's most prominent politicians, has successfully blended cultural conservatism with economically leftist policies.

But the AfD looks to have the best chance of winning the most votes here, and it is also set to do strongly in Saxony and in elections in another eastern state, Brandenburg, later this month.

While such a result would send shockwaves through Germany, it would not mean the AfD would take power, with other parties likely to band together as part of an ongoing “firewall” against the far right.

However, all this bodes ill for Chancellor Scholz, who is facing difficulties and his constantly quarreling coalition.

“This three-party coalition is new in Germany, and it hurts a lot when you have so many conflicts,” says SPD activist Levi Schligtendahl.

He works at a kiosk in Jena and remembers how different things looked when Olaf Scholz entered the chancellery three years ago.

“It was said at the time, 2021, that we need someone like [ex-Chancellor Angela] “And that was Merkel,” Levy says, recalling the desire for a “quiet” and anti-populist candidate.

“Times have changed now with the coronavirus and the Ukraine crisis and it seems like time is up for him.”

The results of these elections are not only of crucial importance for the people of Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg.

They will be judged as a crucial test of public opinion, a year before a federal election, when few expect this traffic-light coalition experiment to be repeated – or ever repeated.

The CDU appears to be the frontrunner for chancellorship under Friedrich Merz, but has been adopting a more right-wing tone as the establishment parties desperately seek to reverse the rise of the AfD.

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