Why our favourite holiday destinations in Europe are increasingly at risk of earthquakes

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There were no warnings before the quake struck Lisbon on Monday morning. Worse, the computer system of Portugal’s Ocean and Atmospheric Agency crashed shortly after the tremors began at 5.11 a.m. No injuries were reported, but residents, who were mostly asleep when the quake struck, said they were terrified and jumped out of bed and “couldn’t stand up.”

“I got my footing and slid down to my parents thinking, ‘This is the big one,’” says Patricia Brito, who lives in the city The tremors lasted less than a minute, but she couldn’t sleep for three hours as she and her friends texted each other on WhatsApp from Setúbal to Porto, sharing their stories. “One of my friends woke up and threw up a minute before the earthquake started, so she must have been very sensitive to it.”

Although the earthquake was moderate, located 84 kilometers from its epicenter in Lisbon, it dominated the headlines of Portuguese and European newspapers, and was also felt in Gibraltar, Spain and Morocco.

The panic among Lisbon's residents was also understandable, because the city's residents were used to living in the shadow of the 1755 earthquake, when a massive quake collapsed Lisbon's churches during mass, sent tsunamis over the city walls, and caused fires that lasted six days.

Scientists estimate that the magnitude of that devastating event was 7.7, compared to the magnitude of 5.4 that occurred on August 26. So what does an earthquake of this magnitude mean for Lisbon today?

Since two-thirds of the city's buildings were built before anti-seismic regulations were introduced in the 1980s, the damage could be incalculable, which is why residents of the city are often subjected to drills, whether it's tsunami alarms being tested near the city's waterfront, or school children being instructed on what to do in the event of a catastrophic event.

Until last week, all residents received text messages reminding them to be prepared for aftershocks, keep shoes close, and check for cracks, damage or gas smells.

We may not like to think about it, but Lisbon, like many tourist destinations, is under constant threat. It’s only a matter of time before another major earthquake hits southern Europe. And there’s nothing stopping the African tectonic plate from moving north, threatening major disruption.

Research published in May suggests that the climate crisis has amplified the risk: rising sea levels and stronger storms can trigger earthquakes and related disasters such as landslides and tsunamis. Even the slight extra pressure from a full lake or reservoir can trigger a landslide. That means increased risks for coastal areas around the Mediterranean, which are particularly vulnerable.

Portuguese Meteorological Institute staff monitor seismic activity (AFP/Getty)

Even the UK is not safe, as earthquakes can seem bizarre from the vantage point of the British Isles. In the 19th century, the famous historian Henry Thomas Buckle insisted that freedom from earthquakes was a prerequisite for British economic dynamism, because fear would discourage investment.

He even claimed that earthquake-prone lands were doomed to mental retardation, because “there are among the people feelings of dread and helplessness, on which all superstitions are based.”

However, the Scottish Highlands have a long and well-documented history of small earthquakes. Even the small village of Comrie became a tourist destination in the 19th century for those who wanted to feel the earth shake. In 1863, an earthquake could be felt across 85,000 square kilometres of England, and in 1884 an earthquake centred in Essex caused enough damage to launch a national collection.

For a brief moment after these shocks, fear struck the heart of the British Empire. Charles Dickens declared that “we are not immune from the most sudden, the most cruel, the most destructive forces of nature. There may be another shock like the Lisbon earthquake this year or next.”

The Times warned of “means, quite beyond our comprehension and calculation, lying beneath our feet, which may undermine cities, cut off populations suddenly, and destroy empires… Who can say what strange ordeal of shaking, collapsing, drowning, dividing, or drying up may await us?”

These were merely passing fears. Earthquakes in the UK were more of a pastime than a hazard. Nineteenth-century Londoners could enjoy the thrill of a visit to a play about the Great Lisbon Earthquake, depicted in a Cyclorama, complete with moving scenes and screams from behind the scenes.

Engraving showing the destruction of Lisbon during the 1755 earthquake (Getty)

British earthquakes have been forgotten since the UK started building nuclear reactors in the 1960s, without earthquake reinforcements. Seismologists have done their best to raise awareness. In 1983, New Scientist magazine ran a cover photo of a teacup being thrown from its saucer, with the headline “Is Britain prepared for earthquakes?” The Times responded with a dismissive editorial, insisting that the British “have other things on their minds”.

In the 2000s, reports of tremors in Lancashire were linked to hydraulic fracturing, which can trigger earthquakes just as high water levels can. The government imposed a moratorium on fracking in 2019, but fears of fuel shortages due to the war in Ukraine prompted calls for it to be lifted. Experts are still weighing the risks.

The earthquakes threatening southern Europe are about 100,000 times more powerful than those caused by fracking in the UK. Governments in the region are relying on short-term forecasts to avert disaster.

In the wake of a devastating earthquake that struck the Italian city of L'Aquila in 2009, six seismologists were convicted of manslaughter for failing to warn the city of imminent danger.

Although their convictions were overturned on appeal, demand for earthquake prediction has increased. This is a dangerous trend, because seismologists agree that there is no reliable way to predict earthquakes.

The only way to reduce the risk is to avoid building near active faults and to enforce building codes. The message is clear: dealing with seismic risks requires long-term planning.

In the wake of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake, which killed at least 300 people (AFP/Getty)

It also requires cooperation. The most devastating earthquake in European history struck Sicily in 1908. It killed nearly half of Messina’s population and destroyed some 90% of the city’s buildings.

The disaster struck at a time when the imperial powers of Europe seemed headed for conflict. Just two months earlier, Austria had annexed Bosnia, sparking the war that would break out in 1914.

The humanitarian response to the earthquake was swift and dramatic. Dozens of Russian, British, French, and American ships brought food, blankets, and building materials. American workers built nearly three thousand new homes for survivors using materials provided by the U.S. government and the Red Cross.

They did this with the express aim of promoting “good feelings between nations.” Two weeks after the disaster, a German satirical magazine featured a cartoon of two devils on the cover, one commenting to the other: “Everything was beautifully prepared for war. Then this fool comes and causes an earthquake! The whole human race has fraternized again, and we have lost our chance.”

Although the devil was woefully wrong about the possibility of war, the earthquake inspired long-term international partnership.

The International Relief Union was founded in 1927 by a member of the Italian Red Cross who devoted several months to relief work in Messina in 1908. There he learned that disaster response required an unprecedented degree of international coordination.

Lisbon, like many tourist destinations, is under constant threat (Getty)

Earthquake preparedness also requires cooperation with the public. One of the most effective ways to gather information about seismic hazards while increasing public awareness is to encourage citizens to take education into their own hands. Ironically, Europeans were much more aware of earthquakes in the 19th century than they are today.

At the time, scientists based their accounts of earthquakes largely on eyewitness accounts from survivors. “It is likely that in no other field does the researcher depend so completely on the assistance of non-geologists,” wrote one 19th-century geologist, “and nowhere else is the observation of each individual so valuable as in earthquakes… Only by the cooperation of all can a satisfactory result be arrived at.”

Even today, the most sophisticated seismometers alone cannot determine the extent of the damage a future earthquake is likely to cause. This type of information can only be obtained by people on the ground sharing their observations.

As I discovered by reading correspondence between scientists and citizen observers while preparing my book on the subject, a lively debate developed in the nineteenth century about how best to live with seismic hazards.

Scientists have learned what their instrument readings mean in terms of the concrete experience of people at the earthquake site, while observers have developed a new curiosity about our dynamic planet. Reviving this dialogue could help Europe build a common language for earthquake safety today.

Deborah R. Coyne is Professor of History and the History of Science and Medicine at Yale University. Her book Earthquake Watchers: The Science of Disasters from Lisbon to Richter is available for purchase here.

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