Earthquakes have nothing to do with whale and dolphin strandings

Immediately after the earthquakes in Japan, posts appeared on social media claiming that the earthquakes were predicted due to dolphin or whale strandings. But a survey by NHK found no evidence to support such a claim.

Dolphins stranded shortly before the 2011 earthquake and tsunami, March 5, 2011

This photo was taken six days before the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011. The earthquake washed up about 50 dolphins on a beach in Ibaraki Prefecture, north of Tokyo. After the massive earthquake and tsunami, social media was filled with posts saying the dolphin stranding was a bad omen.

We checked to see if there was such a connection, since dolphins and whales often wash up on shore—even when earthquakes aren’t happening. We consulted data from the National Museum of Nature and Science’s website. The “Drifting Marine Mammal Database” section lists cases of dolphin and whale strandings on Japanese beaches.

Marine Mammals Database

Researchers, local government officials, surfers and others from across Japan contribute information to the site. Species and genders of mammals washed ashore, as well as accident locations and other circumstances, are posted.

We checked the database through four major earthquakes that had a magnitude of 7 on the Japanese seismic scale, which ranges from 0 to 7. We looked back one year before each earthquake to see when other earthquakes of magnitude 5 or greater had occurred, and where dolphins and whales had washed ashore.

Case #1: Massive Kumamoto Earthquake in 2016

The second magnitude 7.0 earthquake struck southwestern Japan on April 16, 2016. During the one-year period leading up to that date, 288 strandings were reported at various locations along the coast of Japan.

Video shows strandings before the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake

Aichi Prefecture, in central Japan, was the hardest hit, with 40 cases, followed by northern Hokkaido Prefecture, with 39, and Mie Prefecture, with 22. Kumamoto Prefecture reported only five cases. As a result, drownings were scattered across Japan’s coastline, rather than clustered near the epicenter.

Case No. 2: New Year's Day Earthquake, Ishikawa Prefecture, 2024

During the period up to January 1, 2024, 163 beach strandings were reported across the country.

Video shows strandings before New Year's earthquake in Ishikawa Prefecture

Hokkaido Prefecture had the highest number of strandings, with 48, followed by Aichi Prefecture with 16, and Nagasaki Prefecture with 12. Ishikawa Prefecture had two. Again, there was no pattern of strandings around the epicenter.

Case No. 3: Strong earthquake in Iburi, Hokkaido, 2018

In one year to September 6, 2018, 190 cases of delinquency were reported across the country.

Video shows strandings before the 2018 Hokkaido earthquake

The largest number was in Hokkaido Prefecture with 50 cases, followed by Mie Prefecture with 35 cases, and Aichi Prefecture with 20 cases. But Hokkaido, due to its long coastline, topped the list of prefectures in other cases as well.

Case No. 4: Great East Japan Earthquake, 2011

In one year up to March 11, 2011, 332 cases of delinquency were reported across the country.

Video shows strandings before the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake

Hokkaido Prefecture reported the highest number of infections with 75, followed by Mie Prefecture with 36, and Nagasaki Prefecture with 35. In contrast, the three prefectures closest to the epicenter saw relatively low numbers. Iwate and Miyagi Prefectures reported eight cases, while Fukushima Prefecture reported only one.

There was no evidence that these swells were a sign of an impending earthquake.

The trend has been to report large numbers of dolphin and whale strandings along Japanese coastal areas every year.

Insights from the survey

The study confirmed the presence of 3,179 cases of delinquency during the period from March 11, 2011 to February 18, 2024.

Video shows animal strandings from 2011 to 2024

These outages are not linked to specific locations. If these outages are a harbinger of major earthquakes, they will only occur intermittently, as earthquakes do.

This map shows the number of stranded people by governorate.

Number of stranded people by governorate

Hokkaido has reported the highest number of cases with 708, followed by Mie Prefecture with 488 and Aichi Prefecture with 402, which appears to have strong reporting networks. Although the numbers vary, they are regularly confirmed in all coastal prefectures.

What causes whale strandings? Tajima Yuko, a researcher at the National Museum of Nature and Science, says:

About half of all whale and dolphin deaths are due to external factors, such as collisions with ships or entanglement in fixed fishing nets, says Tajima Yuko, a researcher at the National Museum of Nature and Science.

Other causes include infection and disease, such as pneumonia, and swimming in areas uninhabitable for the creatures due to low temperatures, says Tajima, who investigates the causes of death through autopsies.

She is often asked about any connection between whale strandings and earthquakes, but she sees none. As a researcher, she wondered about the potential impacts after the case of about 100 whales that stranded themselves before the 2011 earthquake in New Zealand.

But she says: “There is no basis for the claim that strandings are affected by earthquakes based on an analysis of the number and locations of strandings and the locations of earthquakes.”

The large number of sardines that have died have also sparked unfounded posts.

In addition to dolphins and whales, a school of sardines has led some people to claim that these incidents are a sign of impending earthquakes.

In December 2023, an estimated 1,000 tons of sardines were spotted on a beach in Hakodate, Hokkaido.

Sardines on Hakodate Beach on December 7, 2023

There were large numbers of sardines around the coast of southern Hokkaido at the time the boat ran aground, said Fujioka Takashi, a researcher at the Fisheries Research Institute in Hakodate.

He said it was likely that the fish were chased by dolphins or larger fish and pushed into a small area of ​​water, where they ran out of oxygen and died.

Don't be fooled by fake information.

Experts we spoke to said that news of drownings undoubtedly causes a vague sense of anxiety in people. One psychologist pointed out that people are creatures who are deceived by misinformation in order to calm their anxiety. It is important to carefully verify the accuracy of information circulating on social media.

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