Opinion: Google's new earthquake warning is good news — but don't expect much from it yet

Written by Elizabeth Nadine

Updated: 4 hours ago Published: 4 hours ago

(iStock / Getty Images)

Google recently announced that its Android phones will soon receive earthquake alerts in the United States, including Alaska. The Alaska Earthquake Center welcomes Google’s innovative approach and speed in providing earthquake alerts, as it supports our mission to strengthen Alaska’s resilience to earthquakes and tsunamis.

A story on the Alaska Earthquake Center website focused on what it would take to make earthquake early warning work here. Google has had its own (phone-based) system available internationally since 2017 and will be rolling it out nationwide in the coming weeks. We provide some cautionary information to help ease people’s expectations.

It’s important to keep in mind that an alert isn’t a prediction, but it can provide a few seconds of warning and a chance to save lives. Google’s “Earthquake Alert for Android” system is based on the same premise as the Earthquake Early Warning System — quickly approximating the magnitude of an earthquake from incoming seismic wave information, estimating the expected shaking intensity, and sending an alert. All of this will be done on phones rather than through an existing seismic network. As Google notes, its system is a complement to, not a replacement for, government-run earthquake alert systems, which combine communications and preparedness.

Android alerts

In Google’s model, an Android phone with a built-in accelerometer acts as an earthquake detector. Having enough phones near the epicenter would generate the information needed to alert people farther away to the impending quake. Like any other early warning system today, people near the epicenter would receive little or no warning.

Some restrictions

One difference between what Google is offering and what the Alaska Integrated Early Warning System could offer is that the alert will only appear on Android phones and will only work with phones that have earthquake alerts enabled, which allow Google to track their location. Additionally, the phones must be connected to Wi-Fi or have data services enabled.

The usefulness of the alert system may be limited by the layout of Alaska's most dangerous seismic zones, which are located primarily off the coast. There won't be many phones monitoring the earthquakes that occur there routinely.

Alaska Earthquake Network and its Capabilities

The permanent seismic sensors in our regional monitoring networks are high-quality scientific instruments. They provide high-quality data 24/7, resulting in highly accurate estimates of earthquake locations and magnitudes.

Unlike phones, which tend to cluster in population centers, Alaska’s seismic network is distributed throughout the state, including in remote areas where there is no cell service. This sensor network, which includes several hundred stations, will form the backbone of an integrated earthquake early warning system in Alaska, quickly detecting impending tremors that start far from where people live.

Moreover, the state’s integrated early warning system will not primarily rely on a cellular network. As we’ve seen in the past, including last weekend when a broken fiber optic cable knocked out cell phone service and internet access in Sitka, widespread outages occur in Alaska for a number of reasons.

Google’s new earthquake alert is expected to increase the appreciation of what earthquake early warning systems will provide in the coming years. There are many places around the world that have well-integrated earthquake early warning systems, including Canada, Israel, Japan, Mexico, and Turkey.

In the United States, ShakeAlert provides warnings in Washington, Oregon, and California. In fact, Google works with ShakeAlert in those states, so its announcement of an earthquake alert on Android is a step toward helping Alaska catch up. The Alaska Earthquake Center has partnered with the USGS to develop a plan to implement ShakeAlert in the coming years. The system relies on seismic stations, rather than cell phones, to quickly and accurately measure and transmit seismic wave arrival information to a data processing center within seconds to determine location and magnitude. The alert will reach every industry, agency, and person who needs it.

Elizabeth Nadine is the communications director for the Alaska Earthquake Center.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author and are not necessarily endorsed by the Anchorage Daily News, which welcomes a wide range of viewpoints. To submit an article for consideration, please email commentary(at)adn.com. Send articles of no more than 200 words to [email protected] or click here to submit via any web browser. Read our full guidelines for letters and comments here.

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