Lebanon, Palestine, Israel: Is the Middle East Doomed to a Major Earthquake?

From Beirut to Amman, via Ramallah or Tel Aviv, collective fear is renewed with each new earthquake. The laws of nature ignore geopolitics, borders and conflicts: in the Middle East, millions of people live along the Dead Sea Rift, a major seismic hazard zone.

The rift, which has its roots in the eastern Mediterranean basin, is located at the junction of the African and Arabian plates, and runs through the region from south to north for 1,200 kilometres, from the Gulf of Aqaba to Turkey, across Palestine, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria.

If the region has witnessed several low-intensity earthquakes in recent decades, including the earthquake of last July, the shock wave resulting from the earthquake that plunged Turkey and Syria into mourning on February 6, 2023, awakened ancient demons, buried in the collective unconscious, but not forgotten.

Since then, nagging questions have been circling everywhere: Is the Middle East destined to witness a major catastrophe one day? And is the region prepared for it?

Although seismic threats are no longer a priority in the region, the accumulation of reminders of them in recent years has left its mark.

New newsletter from Middle East Eye: The Jerusalem Dispatch Subscribe for the latest insights and analysis on Israel and Palestine, along with Turkey Unpacked and other Middle East Eye newsletters.

Panic spread across several Lebanese cities on February 6, 2023, as the country experienced strong earthquakes following the earthquake that struck neighboring Turkey and Syria.

Thousands of Lebanese have rushed out of their homes, certain that tragedy is about to strike. They fear that the question is no longer whether a major earthquake will hit the region, but when. It is a fear shared by many experts.

“The past is the key to the present and the future, as it shows us the frequency of earthquakes in the region and their destructive nature.”

– Shmuel Marco, Tel Aviv University

Shmuel Marco, a professor of geophysics at Tel Aviv University, believes a major catastrophe is inevitable.

“The past is the key to the present and the future, and it shows us the high frequency of earthquakes in the region and their destructive nature,” he told Middle East Eye.

In fact, the movement of tectonic plates – especially the Arabian plate, which is moving slowly but steadily toward the Anatolian plate to the north – is inevitable.

Jalal Al-Dabeek, director of the Earth Sciences and Earthquake Engineering Center at An-Najah University in Nablus in the occupied West Bank, agrees with him.

“The geographic exposure of Palestine, like Israel and Jordan, ranges from medium to very large. We expect a magnitude 6 to 7 earthquake, with the possibility of exceeding this number in some areas in the north,” he told Middle East Eye.

What areas will be affected?

While Jordan appears to be the least affected country in the event of a strong earthquake, there is great concern elsewhere, especially in Lebanon.

“The acceleration, which is the seismic calculation value, is the same throughout Lebanon, because the country is so small. This indicates how much the entire region is affected,” Yahya al-Temsah, a professor of civil engineering specialising in the study of structures under the influence of earthquakes at Beirut Arab University, told Middle East Eye.

We must also not forget that in addition to the lemon crack [the name given to the Dead Sea Rift in Lebanon]“There are many other secondary faults, which may be more or less important, that could move at any time,” he added.

In the south, Professor Marco identified several weak points: between the Dead Sea (located between Israel, Jordan and Palestine) and Lake Tiberias (in Israel), as well as near the Gulf of Aqaba (open to the Red Sea, between Israel and Jordan).

“One approach is to look for sensitive locations that have not seen earthquakes for a long time, where pressure is building up,” he told Middle East Eye.

“In the first case, the last major earthquake occurred in 1033, which represents a thousand years of slow stress buildup. Near the Dead Sea, the last earthquake occurred in 1212, and a smaller earthquake occurred in the 15th century,” he explained.

“We can learn from the earthquake in Turkey. The place where the earthquake occurred has not moved since 1157, on what is called the East Anatolian Fault. So while we cannot know the exact moment of the break, it is possible to pinpoint locations,” he added.

“The Palestinian capacity to deal with such an event is very weak, mainly because we are under occupation.”

– Jalal Al-Dabeek, An-Najah University, Nablus

Since the previous major earthquakes in Turkey and the Middle East each occurred a thousand years ago, does the recent break in the East Anatolian Plate bode ill for Lebanon, Israel and Palestine?

Experts agree that this is just an indicator, but there is no scientific evidence to support it.

“Maybe with the earthquake in Turkey we will see a reshaping of the regional landscape, but it is too early to know,” Marco said.

If an earthquake occurs north or south of the Dead Sea, should we expect to see cities like Jerusalem or Ramallah wiped off the map sooner or later?

“Local geology is also important,” the professor replied.

He explained that “houses built on rock are less damaged than those built on the ground, and the cities of Ramallah and Jerusalem are built on mountains, which makes them relatively safer.”

On the other hand, cities such as Ramla and Lod [in Israel] “It could be badly damaged,” Marco said.

unprepared

Al-Dabaik stressed that an earthquake of this size would be extremely deadly in the West Bank.

“The Palestinian capacity to deal with such an event is very weak,” the expert told Middle East Eye. “This is mainly because we are under occupation.”

“We lack infrastructure, we don’t have an airport. It can take three or four days for international aid to reach the site, because the Jordanians and Israelis are probably too preoccupied with the situation they are in.”

Al-Dubik also points out that “institutions and NGOs lack knowledge in this area.”

“The task will be very difficult with so many refugee camps. We are not only physically vulnerable, but also socially, economically and environmentally vulnerable.”

“lots of buildings” [in Lebanon] “They are already weak… and this is very worrying.”

– Yahya Al-Timsah, Beirut Arab University

This scenario contrasts with the latest Israeli developments on the matter: in February 2022, the country officially launched a national earthquake warning system.

Although it is not “predictive,” it should be able to warn people who live relatively far from the epicenter, saving them a few precious seconds.

“This is enough to stop the train so it does not derail, put hazardous materials in safe places, and turn off high-voltage gas and electricity lines to prevent a tragedy,” Marco explained.

But in his opinion, this does not make Israel a country prepared to face a major earthquake, because it “has good training in the field of rescue but not much in the field of preparedness.”

“Earthquake-resistant building codes were only imposed in 1995, and many older homes may not be able to withstand it,” he added.

“We have not educated the population enough about the right behaviour to follow, and the authorities are certainly afraid of scaring people,” Marco added.

After the city was rebuilt vertically after the end of the civil war, largely without taking into account anti-seismic regulations, Beirut could be severely affected by an earthquake (Laurent Perpignan-Eban/Middle East Eye)

In Lebanon, the risk of earthquake damage is greatly increased by overcrowding, construction on poor quality soil, and the widespread practice of adding floors to buildings without taking proper precautions.

“We have many people at risk, especially in some neighborhoods of Beirut, the Tripoli area, and Akkar. [north of the country]“The residents of these areas are already suffering from buildings being damaged by time and humidity,” Timsah told Middle East Eye.

The professor pointed out that “the anti-seismic standards imposed by the state in 2013 have not been applied everywhere, due to the costs involved.”

In the current context of a failed state, Lebanon is ill-prepared to face a major disaster scenario.

“Many buildings are already weak,” Timsah said. “Buildings constructed after 2013 account for about 15 to 20 percent of the built environment. The rest of the buildings will likely not be able to withstand a major earthquake. This is very worrying.”

Translated from the French (original) and updated version.

Sources 1/ https://Google.com/ 2/ https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/lebanon-palestine-israel-middle-east-doomed-major-earthquake The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article

What Are The Main Benefits Of Comparing Car Insurance Quotes Online

LOS ANGELES, CA / ACCESSWIRE / June 24, 2020, / Compare-autoinsurance.Org has launched a new blog post that presents the main benefits of comparing multiple car insurance quotes. For more info and free online quotes, please visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/the-advantages-of-comparing-prices-with-car-insurance-quotes-online/ The modern society has numerous technological advantages. One important advantage is the speed at which information is sent and received. With the help of the internet, the shopping habits of many persons have drastically changed. The car insurance industry hasn't remained untouched by these changes. On the internet, drivers can compare insurance prices and find out which sellers have the best offers. View photos The advantages of comparing online car insurance quotes are the following: Online quotes can be obtained from anywhere and at any time. Unlike physical insurance agencies, websites don't have a specific schedule and they are available at any time. Drivers that have busy working schedules, can compare quotes from anywhere and at any time, even at midnight. Multiple choices. Almost all insurance providers, no matter if they are well-known brands or just local insurers, have an online presence. Online quotes will allow policyholders the chance to discover multiple insurance companies and check their prices. Drivers are no longer required to get quotes from just a few known insurance companies. Also, local and regional insurers can provide lower insurance rates for the same services. Accurate insurance estimates. Online quotes can only be accurate if the customers provide accurate and real info about their car models and driving history. Lying about past driving incidents can make the price estimates to be lower, but when dealing with an insurance company lying to them is useless. Usually, insurance companies will do research about a potential customer before granting him coverage. Online quotes can be sorted easily. Although drivers are recommended to not choose a policy just based on its price, drivers can easily sort quotes by insurance price. Using brokerage websites will allow drivers to get quotes from multiple insurers, thus making the comparison faster and easier. For additional info, money-saving tips, and free car insurance quotes, visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ Compare-autoinsurance.Org is an online provider of life, home, health, and auto insurance quotes. This website is unique because it does not simply stick to one kind of insurance provider, but brings the clients the best deals from many different online insurance carriers. In this way, clients have access to offers from multiple carriers all in one place: this website. On this site, customers have access to quotes for insurance plans from various agencies, such as local or nationwide agencies, brand names insurance companies, etc. "Online quotes can easily help drivers obtain better car insurance deals. All they have to do is to complete an online form with accurate and real info, then compare prices", said Russell Rabichev, Marketing Director of Internet Marketing Company. CONTACT: Company Name: Internet Marketing CompanyPerson for contact Name: Gurgu CPhone Number: (818) 359-3898Email: [email protected]: https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ SOURCE: Compare-autoinsurance.Org View source version on accesswire.Com:https://www.Accesswire.Com/595055/What-Are-The-Main-Benefits-Of-Comparing-Car-Insurance-Quotes-Online View photos