Big or small earthquake? Scientists learn more about earthquake prediction

Is it possible to predict earthquakes? Scientists are said to be closer than ever to an answer. Scientists have collected seismic data from more than a thousand sites, and the data has shown a link between the strength of faults and the size of earthquakes. The data suggests it may be possible to predict how close an area is to experiencing a major seismic event.

Japan lies on the Pacific Ring of Fire, and is highly vulnerable to earthquakes. It experiences up to 100,000 small earthquakes a year, and is also at risk of being hit by a major earthquake. Japanese scientists are trying to study small earthquakes to understand the processes that occur within the Earth's crust that lead to a major earthquake.

Researchers from Kyushu University and the University of Tokyo in Japan studied the seismic activity in great detail and were able to determine the link between the strength of the fault and the size of the earthquake.

The study was published in the journal Nature Communications. The researchers suggest that the strength of the fault influences the value of b, thereby increasing the chances of a large earthquake.

“The b value is a very important constant in seismology, as it characterizes the relationship between earthquake frequency and magnitude,” explains Professor Satoshi Matsumoto, the study’s first author.

A lower b value indicates that there is a greater chance of larger earthquakes occurring.

“If the b value is low, it means there is a higher proportion of large earthquakes, while a high b value means there is a higher proportion of small earthquakes.”

The value of b varies from place to place and changes over time. It often decreases before a major earthquake.

The latest study points to the strength of the fault and says it plays a role, too.

West Tottori Earthquake Study

The study focused on the epicenter of the 7.3-magnitude West Tottori earthquake that occurred in 2000. The area is still experiencing seismic activity, and researchers have installed more than a thousand seismic stations to make accurate observations.

“Under certain stress conditions in each tectonic system, there is a suitable direction for the fault plane to slip. When faults are in the wrong directions, this indicates that they are weak faults that can slip more easily. On the other hand, strong faults require more stress to slip, and have a more distinct direction,” Matsumoto explains.

Simply put, these weak faults are more likely to slip before a significant amount of stress builds up, which means they are unable to release a significant amount of force, Matsumoto says.

While researchers acknowledge that it may never be possible to predict an earthquake, the latest observations may help them get closer to the “holy grail” of predicting major tremors.

“Data such as fault direction, fault strength and b-values ​​can help us estimate when the fault will reach a critical point,” Matsumoto said. “This information is vital for preparing for major earthquakes.”

Anamika Singh

Anamika Singh started her career as a sports journalist and then moved on to writing about entertainment, news and lifestyle. She also does script editing and video production.

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