Do you live near an earthquake zone? You might be surprised.

If you live in Southern California, it's no surprise that the ground starts shaking at any moment. That's because this part of the country is prone to earthquakes.

But it may come as a surprise that this isn't the only area of ​​the country where the ground could start shaking. For example, central Virginia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina could be home to the next big earthquake in the future.

It is these unexpected hot spots that can cause the most pain because residents and buildings are not prepared for the damage that can result.

Predicting unexpected earthquakes

Charleston, South Carolina, was hit by a devastating earthquake in 1886, which had effects as far away as Wisconsin. By today’s standards, the 7.3 magnitude quake, which killed 60 people, caused $186 million in damage. Although we didn’t have the Richter scale back then, we can look at the magnitude of the damage that the earthquake caused back then and estimate how much it would have cost.

The revised National Earthquake Hazard Model first looks at what type of earthquake might occur at a given location, known as a “ground motion model,” and secondly highlights the likelihood of earthquakes occurring at different locations, called “earthquake rupture forecasts,” based on available fault lines.

Researchers are also looking at liquefaction, an indication that in the past the groundwater was shaken by a major earthquake, and as a result, the ground above became soft and therefore vulnerable to damage.

Read more: Animals sense earthquakes before they happen. Can they help us predict disasters?

How Scientists Identify New Fault Lines

According to Mark Peterson, the report’s author and a geophysicist with the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program, the report was surprising in how many places earthquakes have occurred in the past. The researchers found that 75 percent of the United States has some record of potentially damaging earthquakes in the past.

“That means there's a reasonable chance we'll get at least minor damage over this wide area, which I didn't expect at all,” Peterson says.

Additionally, the report used more comprehensive geological data than researchers had ever used before, resulting in a more accurate account of potential future earthquakes. The report included 350 new faults—cracks in the Earth’s crust that can trigger seismic activity. While earthquakes range in size from a few millimeters to thousands of kilometers, researchers can learn a lot about which areas may be vulnerable to future earthquakes.

Read more: 20 Things You Didn't Know About…Earthquakes

The importance of earthquake prediction

The San Andreas Fault is a prime candidate for the next big earthquake, having not had one since 1857. But that doesn’t mean other areas aren’t under study. Huge earthquakes have occurred in places like Mineral, Virginia, where on Aug. 23, 2011, millions of people across the country felt an unexpected tremor measuring 5.8 on the Richter scale.

The earthquake did not cause any casualties, as Mineral is a small town with a small population, but it did cause $200 million in damage. The earthquake also caused significant damage to the Washington Monument, which is more than a two-hour drive away.

“People, especially in the eastern United States, don’t understand that there is a risk of earthquakes,” Peterson says.

Peterson says earthquakes in the eastern and central United States can be felt over a larger area than those in the west. And when an earthquake happens once, it can happen again.

The benefit of looking at unexpected places where earthquakes might occur is that locals can modify building codes to withstand a major quake, although experts will ultimately never know for sure where the next quake will occur and how strong it will be.

Read more: Disasters you probably didn't think of

Article sources

Our writers at Discovermagazine.com use peer-reviewed studies and high-quality sources for our articles, and our editors review them for scientific accuracy and editorial standards. See the sources used below for this article:

Sarah Novak is a science journalist based in South Carolina. In addition to writing for Discover, her work has appeared in Scientific American, Popular Science, New Scientist, Sierra Magazine, Astronomy Magazine, and more. She earned her bachelor’s degree in journalism from the University of Georgia’s Grady School of Journalism. She is also a candidate for a master’s degree in science writing at Johns Hopkins University (anticipated to graduate in 2023).

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