When will the next big earthquake hit the south-central region? | news

MEMPHIS, TN – People living in the Mid-South have wondered for many years when the “Big Earthquake” will occur based on our proximity to the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ).

It is the most active seismic zone east of the Rocky Mountains with about 150 earthquakes occurring annually.

“Most of those waves are below 2.5 magnitude and no one has ever felt them,” says Dr. Mitch Withers, assistant research professor at the Center for Earthquake Research Information (CERI) at the University of Memphis.

Dr. Withers manages an earthquake monitoring network covering most of the southeastern United States including the NMSZ. The network consists of 150 monitoring stations equipped with high-tech computers that constantly check vibrations in the ground.

“And when those vibrations get large — and earthquakes have a specific seismic signature that we can look for — we can say, ‘Oh, there's an earthquake.’” Withers continued, “and learning from more frequent, smaller earthquakes helps us do a better job of figuring out what might happen with cases.” Larger and less frequent in the future.

A computer simulation from the US Geological Survey (USGS) shows the widespread impact of a 7.7 magnitude earthquake in the NMSZ.

Dr. Kent Moran, a research associate at CERI, explains the Richter scale, which is used to evaluate the strength of earthquakes. “And scale modeling, because it's logarithmic in scale, every degree you go up on that scale, you logarithmically complicate or worsen the damage,” says Dr. Moran.

This means that an earthquake with a magnitude of six is ​​ten times stronger than an earthquake with a magnitude of five on the Richter scale. The power of seven is 100 times stronger than the power of five.

In 1811 and 1812, a series of powerful earthquakes shook the south-central region. While scientists are still debating the exact magnitude of these events, they were similar to magnitude 7.7 in the USGS simulation.

“In New Madrid,” Dr. Moran said [Missouri] In itself, when the fault there ruptured, it temporarily pushed the river upriver. This is where you get accounts [Mississippi] “The river flows back at Reelfoot, as if it had dammed the Reelfoot River, creating Reelfoot Lake.”

The 15,000-acre lake in northwest Tennessee was created by those events more than 200 years ago and remains to this day.

On the Mississippi River, just upstream of Reelfoot, earthquakes flattened the settlement of New Madrid, Missouri. A letter from a survivor provides important details for scientists. “The land was in constant turmoil, and undulated distinctly like a calm sea,” settler Eliza Bryan wrote.

“The thing about this activity is that it was a surprise to everyone. They literally put a settlement in New Madrid on top of the bug, not knowing it was active,” Dr. Moran said.

However, at that time, the area was sparsely populated. What is now West Tennessee was not yet part of the state. Memphis had not yet been founded. Scientists study those quakes to try to determine what might happen when the next “big one” hits an area that now has hundreds of thousands of residents.

“We also know from digging trenches in the soil and doing some archaeological analysis that similar sequences of earthquakes occurred on average about 500 years ago, at least for the last 2,500 years,” Dr. Withers said.

The NMSZ has been more than 200 years in the 500-year cycle since those last major earthquakes in 1811-1812. But that doesn't mean we have another 300 years until the next big earthquake. Earthquakes are unpredictable. It can happen at any time.

“The possibility of a recurrence of what happened in 1811 and 1812 exists, and our best estimate is about 7% to 10%,” Dr. Withers said.

This represents a seven to 10 percent chance of a magnitude 7 earthquake occurring in the NMSZ within the next 50 years. For a force of six, which is less powerful but still harmful, Dr. Withers said there was a 30% to 50% chance in the next 50 years. However, he says a major earthquake isn't something you have to fear every day. But be prepared.

“You know, if you told me that the chances of a storm this afternoon were 7% to 10%, I wouldn't take my umbrella,” Dr. Withers said. “I want to know where he is, you know. And I know that might happen, so I know what to do.” If it rains.

To make sure your family is prepared in the event of an earthquake or other natural disaster, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security offers these preparedness tips:

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