Earthquakes in the Middle East

The Middle East resembles nothing so much as a seismic zone with multiple fault lines. This week, fighting has increased sharply along one of these lines: Israel's border with Lebanon and, more specifically, between Israel and Hezbollah. This in turn led to activity along another fault line, where Iran, supporting Hezbollah, responded by firing ballistic missiles at Israel, which vowed to respond strongly. What is less clear is what comes next, whether along these fault lines or elsewhere in the region.

What made escalation inevitable were the missile attacks launched by Hezbollah against Israel following the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. Israel evacuated about 60,000 citizens from the northern border to protect them from the dangers of attacks similar to those of Hamas, but the escalating exchange of fire between Hezbollah God and Israel made it impossible for them to return safely.

But what enabled the emergence of this new front is that the situation in Gaza has reached something like a new equilibrium. Over the past year, Israel has sharply reduced the military threat posed by Hamas. Between 10,000 and 20,000 of the movement's fighters were killed, and many of its leaders were assassinated or forced to hide indefinitely in Gaza's maze of tunnels. Israel decided that it could safely shift its focus to its northern border and Hezbollah.

What Israel has accomplished so far against Hezbollah is impressive. First, by detonating explosives planted in pagers and walkie-talkies, and then through targeted aerial bombardment, Israel decimated Hezbollah's senior leadership, including Hassan Nasrallah, the group's leader for more than three decades, and killed a large number of Hezbollah fighters.

After costly Israeli intelligence failures in the run-up to October 7, the attacks against Hezbollah revived the prestige of the Israeli security establishment by demonstrating its continued ability to obtain accurate intelligence about enemy groups and exploit that intelligence in a decisive manner. The belief that Israel and Hezbollah have reached a stalemate has been debunked, with Israel sufficiently deterred from taking any forceful action by Hezbollah's ability to launch a barrage of missiles against it.

Israel followed its secret operations and air attacks with a ground incursion into Lebanon, the scope and duration of which was unknown. The purpose is also unclear. Eliminating Hezbollah is impossible, and occupying large areas of Lebanon would be unwise given Israel's poor history of such undertakings.

Current Israeli policy appears aimed at dissuading Hezbollah from launching further attacks, but this, too, may not be possible. Although Israel has seriously weakened the organization, it still maintains significant fighting power, making it a dangerous adversary, especially in any war fought mostly on its own soil. At the same time, as Hezbollah appoints new leaders, it must decide whether and how to respond to Israel. The more retaliatory responses, the more it calls for strong Israeli military action. In short, it is not clear where all this is leading.

One can sympathize with what Israel did in Lebanon, while criticizing what it did, and failed to do, in Gaza. Hamas, like Hezbollah, is an Iranian-backed terrorist organization that seeks to destroy Israel. But that's where the similarities end. Hamas is a national liberation movement supported by elements of the indigenous Palestinian population. In contrast, Hezbollah is merely a tool of Iranian foreign policy, with little connection to the aspirations of the Lebanese or Palestinian peoples.

Moreover, no country would accept to live under a threat that would force tens of thousands of its citizens to evacuate their homes. The Lebanese government loses some of the natural benefits of sovereignty by failing to fulfill its obligation to ensure that terrorists do not use its territory to attack another country.

For its part, Iran responded to these attacks on what was seen as its most powerful proxy by taking what could be a fateful step by attacking Israel directly. I am frankly surprised that Iran would do this, even though its leaders may have felt compelled to do so for fear of appearing weak. Or perhaps they thought they could thread the needle by acting against Israel without provoking a meaningful military response. But Iran has now provided Israel with the justification to retaliate, for example by attacking nuclear sites, military targets, or even energy-related facilities that are central to its economy. Israel demonstrated its ability to do this in April, following a failed Iranian drone and missile attack.

Striking Iran directly is something that many Israelis would welcome, as they are tired of dealing with its many proxies. After years of indirect conflict, there is significant domestic support for the idea of ​​“going to the source,” in the hope that this will persuade Iran to reduce its support for its proxies. Some seem to believe that such attacks could lead to events that could lead to the fall of the Iranian regime. Earlier this week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: “When Iran is finally freed — and that moment will come much sooner than people think — everything will be different.”

Regime change, although not at all likely, cannot be ruled out, let alone guaranteed. It is also not at all clear what kind of government might replace the current one. The current regime will likely overcome everything in its path and find ways to attack Israeli and Western targets around the world, thus accelerating its efforts to develop nuclear weapons.

We may be approaching a turning point in the Middle East. What we don't know is where this turn might take us.

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