Is a strong earthquake likely in Metro Vancouver?

Two earthquakes have been felt in Metro Vancouver in just over a week.

The quake was felt by Metro Vancouver residents in the early hours of Friday, October 4, raising concerns about the possibility of another, and perhaps larger, tremor in the near future.

The quake, which occurred shortly after 2 a.m., had a magnitude of 3.5, according to the Canadian Earthquake Service, and was centered about 18 kilometers west of Delta and east of Ladysmith in British Columbia and at a depth of 65 kilometres.

Just over a week ago, a 3.8 magnitude tremor was recorded in Haro Strait around 4am on 26 September. The quake, whose epicenter was 11 kilometers east of Sydney and approximately 55 kilometers below the surface, was felt by hundreds of people farther north. Such as Nanaimo and Parksville on Vancouver Island and south to Washington State.

Simon Fraser University (SFU) Professor Emeritus John Clague says low-magnitude earthquakes occur daily in British Columbia, although most register at a magnitude of less than 1 and are not felt by people.

However, the location of the two recent earthquakes raises an interesting concern for experts in the field.

“We've known for some time that these earthquakes happen under Puget Sound, and we know we're going to get some under the Canadian border,” an geoscience expert told VIA.

“The USGS shows that the epicenter of the earthquake site is close to the border. It tells us that these earthquakes could occur under the Strait of Georgia but are closer to Vancouver.”

The proximity of recent quakes to the Lower Mainland shows the potential for an earthquake closer to home, Clague says.

“Maybe we could have an earthquake in Vancouver,” he says. “The earthquake range can extend upward.”

Magnitude 3 or 4 tremors do not usually cause damage, but magnitude 5 tremors can cause damage near the epicenter. A 5.4-magnitude deep earthquake beneath Pender Island in 1975 caused high-rise buildings in Vancouver to sway.

Could recent earthquakes mean a big earthquake is coming?

Any mention of the Big One is enough to send shivers down the local spine without any of the Earth's plates slipping. The horrific event will occur but its timing is impossible to be certain of. Instead, the most likely scenario is a large, albeit smaller, earthquake in Metro Vancouver.

“This does not mean that we are approaching an earthquake of magnitude 7 or higher… There could be slight modifications along the plate boundaries. It is interesting that we had two earthquakes there, though,” he points out, referring to recent seismic activity in the area. .

The major slip involves “much larger slip” of a few hundred kilometers between the Juan de Fuca plate and the North American plate in the Cascadia subduction zone, Clague says. A magnitude 8 or 9 earthquake would devastate Vancouver Island and the Lower Mainland. Fortunately, this type of event only occurs every 400 or 500 years.

A more similar scenario would see smaller slip along “a crack in the Juan de Fuca plate or a small patch on the crust,” he notes. A magnitude 5 earthquake could cause major damage in Metro Vancouver.

Increased activity in this area may mean a smaller earthquake is possible, but it does not mean it will happen. There are three factors that will determine the impact locally if this happens.

Strength: A higher magnitude earthquake causes more damage because it releases more energy. Source or epicenter: Earthquakes under the city or near the ground are most likely to cause damage. Depth: All earthquakes occur within the Earth's crust. Shallow impacts usually have a greater impact on cities.

Kalaj says that large and shallow tremors near cities are the most harmful.

Are earthquakes more likely to occur at night?

Earthquakes occur at any time of the day and are less likely to be reported if they occur at night, especially if they are not strong. The last two tremors felt by local residents were in the middle of the night and had a magnitude of less than 4 degrees.

“It won't feel as if a lot of people felt the quake,” he points out. “Small earthquakes don't have the long-term ground motion that large earthquakes do.” “If you're awake, it may feel like someone hit the side of your chair.”

The latest quake was also very deep, meaning that by the time “the energy has transmitted to the Earth's surface and people feel it has been greatly diminished.”

The September 26 earthquake was felt more widely because it was larger and more shallow, Clague says. However, both events are important and not trivial because they are “felt” earthquakes.

“We live in earthquake country and we get a little something every day in British Columbia, but when you get to Tower 3 or higher, people will probably feel it.”

The earth sciences expert says that deep earthquakes on the Juan de Fuca plate and under the North American plate and the border between them are common and usually occur at a depth of about 40 to 60 kilometers. Occasionally, shallow tremors occur within the fragile crust of North America.

“We can't do anything about it…Mother Nature's game plan involves the collision of one plate with another that can lead to periodic breaking of the crust and movements along faults.”

With files from the Times Colonist.

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