Earthquake or nuclear test? What is behind the mysterious tremors in Iran? – First post

On the evening of October 5, 2024, a 4.6-magnitude earthquake struck Iran, 44 kilometers southwest of Semnan, at a depth of 10 kilometers, according to the European-Mediterranean Seismological Center (EMSC).

The tremors, which were felt approximately 110 kilometers away in Tehran, occurred at 10:45 p.m. local time.

Shortly after, a second, weaker earthquake was reported in Israel, sparking widespread speculation on social media, questioning whether the seismic activity was actually an earthquake or something more sinister like a secret nuclear test.

What happened?

The Semnan region, where the earthquake occurred, is characterized by its proximity to the main Iranian nuclear facilities, which immediately sparked rumors of a secret nuclear test.

#Earthquake (#earthquake) confirmed by seismic data. ⚠ Preliminary information: M4.6 || 44 km southwest of #Semnan (#Iran) || 19 minutes ago (local time 22:45:40). Follow the topic for updates 👇 pic.twitter.com/0VnZxdlgHX

— EMSC (@LastQuake) October 5, 2024

Social media platforms exploded with theories, with one X (formerly Twitter) user writing: “Iran has gone nuclear since last night. They used bombs at a depth of 10 kilometers below the surface near Semnan to ensure minimal radiation exposure, and this resulted in a 4.6-magnitude earthquake that was recorded by seismographs.

Another speculated, “The Iranian earthquake really scared Israel.” They are wondering whether to attack Iran. The secret seems to be to have nuclear weapons. “No country will mess with nuclear power.”

The timing of the earthquake, in the context of rising tensions between Iran and Israel, has reinforced these suspicions. Iran recently fired about 400 missiles at Israel on October 1, following a series of high-profile killings of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders.

With Hamas launching attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, and Israeli retaliatory strikes that killed more than 42,000 Palestinians in Gaza, the volatile political situation has provided fertile ground for speculation about Iran's nuclear ambitions.

How are nuclear tests and seismic activity linked?

Underground nuclear explosions can produce seismic activity similar to earthquakes, but there are key differences. Iranian nuclear sites, such as Natanz, are located deep underground, and the relatively shallow depth of this earthquake has raised questions.

While the shallow depth of 10 km is consistent with normal seismic events, it is also close enough to what would be expected from an underground explosion.

However, conducting an underground nuclear test without causing a disturbance on the surface is a very complex process. Magnitude 4.6, although significant, does not conclusively indicate a nuclear detonation.

It is important to distinguish between natural seismic activity and nuclear testing. Although rumors spread, there is no concrete evidence to support the claim that the earthquake was caused by a nuclear event.

The fact remains that Iran has long been accused of developing its nuclear program by Western countries.

Does Iran have nuclear capability?

Iran's nuclear capability has long been a point of contention on the global stage. In a statement issued in December 2023, the United States and its European allies condemned Iran for expanding its production of 60 percent enriched uranium, just one step away from the 90 percent needed for weapons.

Although Iran denies that its nuclear program is military in nature, experts estimate that it could produce enough weapons-grade uranium to make a nuclear bomb in less than a week.

“If the regime’s leadership decided to build nuclear weapons, it would only take a few weeks to obtain enough fissile material,” a nuclear weapons expert from the Institute for Science and International Security said in a January article.

It is believed that the path to weaponization, which includes theoretical calculations, simulations and testing of various components, is almost complete. So far, Iran is capable of producing up to 12 nuclear warheads within five months if it chooses to accelerate its efforts.

However, achieving a usable nuclear weapon requires additional work. Although Iran has delivery systems such as missiles, the final steps in weaponization, such as producing a warhead capable of being mounted on a missile, remain a challenge.

However, the risk of Iran conducting an underground nuclear test to signal its entry into the nuclear club looms large. Iran's ability to collect fissile material has advanced to the point that it has become possible to develop a crude nuclear weapon within months.

What does the current scenario tell us?

The earthquake, whether natural or not, occurred amid escalating hostilities between Israel and Iranian-backed groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas. Since the Hamas attack on October 7, the Israeli military response has been relentless.

More than 42,000 Palestinians were killed in Gaza, while Israeli raids on southern Lebanon claimed the lives of 2,000 people and displaced thousands more.

On October 8, 2024, Hezbollah responded by launching 130 missiles into Israeli territory, specifically targeting the city of Haifa. Air strikes, coupled with retaliatory attacks, have put the region on the brink, with many fearing a larger conflict is on the horizon.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak said: “Iran’s nuclear ambitions are no longer just a matter of speculation, but rather a growing reality that we may have to deal with very soon.” He also warned that any military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities may have limited effectiveness. He pointed out that “the Iranian nuclear program is so advanced that no strike could significantly hinder it.”

What is the final ruling? Shake or test?

While the October 5 earthquake has some characteristics suggesting a possible underground nuclear test, the available evidence remains inconclusive.

Known nuclear sites in Iran are barricaded underground, and the shallow depth of the earthquake is anecdotal but not conclusive evidence of a nuclear explosion.

Although the IAEA continues its monitoring efforts, Iran's increasing levels of uranium enrichment, combined with its missile capabilities, are intensifying fears that a nuclear-armed Iran will soon become a reality.

Given Iran's progress, the question is no longer if, but when, Tehran might reveal its nuclear arm.

With input from agencies

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