A new metric shows which countries suffer disproportionate losses in earthquakes

A new system for indexing earthquake deaths indicates that five countries have suffered the greatest loss of life over the past 500 years.

Written by Rebecca Owen, Science Writer (@beccapox)

Citation: Rebecca Owen, 2024, New metric shows countries suffering disproportionate losses in earthquakes, Tumbler, http://doi.org/10.32858/352

Although there are many seismically active regions around the world, each of which has the potential to host devastating earthquakes, some countries are particularly vulnerable to seeing large numbers of earthquake-related casualties. As unaffected people elsewhere watch deaths mount higher and higher in the wake of a major earthquake, it can be difficult to comprehend the lives lost.

To better understand how a country's population is affected by an earthquake, the authors of the February 2024 study formulated a new type of measurement: the earthquake fatality burden (or EQFL). This number is the ratio of the number of deaths to the total population of the country at the time of the earthquake. It can provide a more comprehensive view of the potential loss of life that may result from future earthquakes. By doing so, it can also focus the world's attention on at-risk countries before an earthquake strikes.

Study earthquake records

In the new study, researchers analyzed records from the past 500 years in countries where the cumulative number of earthquake-related deaths was 10,000 or more. That group totaled 97% of all earthquake deaths recorded since 1500, which, researchers estimate, is the furthest away from relatively reliable records in history.

The catalog of these deaths includes those caused by building collapses or other related hazards such as landslides, fires and liquefaction, but does not include people killed by tsunamis caused by earthquakes. A different equation is needed to calculate deaths and damage from a tsunami compared to shaking, says Max Weiss, a retired seismologist at the International Center for Geosimulation and one of the study's authors.

CAPTION: Two workers in yellow jackets walk down a street in Portovijo, Ecuador, around damaged buildings. Image source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/26/Calle_Francisco_Pacheco_Portoviejo%2C_Ecuador_04.05.2016.jpg

The study ranked 35 countries and regions at risk of earthquakes by EQFL, with the top locations including Ecuador, Lebanon, Haiti, Turkmenistan and Portugal. These are not necessarily countries with the most frequent, most recent, or largest earthquakes – but if they are hit by an earthquake, the expected loss of life will be much higher in these five countries than in the others.

Factors affecting EQFLs

Several factors affect a country's EQFL, including population size, tectonic setting, and overall disaster preparedness.

Weiss explains that although each casualty is tragic, a death toll of a certain size is more powerful in a smaller country. The human impact of an earthquake is much greater in a smaller country because the number of lives lost in smaller countries may include a large portion of the population. China, for example, ranks first in the sheer number of earthquake-related deaths over the past 500 years, but ranks 23rd on the EQFL list because its population is so large. Meanwhile, Lebanon and Turkmenistan, two countries at the top of the EQFL list, reported a population of less than 10 million.

The tectonic environment provides another risk factor, says James Dalzell, Earth Hazards Research Lead at the WTW Research Network, who was not part of the study. “Major faults are at plate boundaries such as the Anatolian Fault Zone [in Türkiye]For example, it will be at high risk for large-scale events and vulnerable to cascading hazards such as liquefaction, subsidence, slope failure and landslides.

Both Ecuador and Haiti have a very long fault spacing, which means that faults can rupture for longer periods, creating large earthquakes that can easily overwhelm small populations. Greece “suffers a lot of earthquakes,” Weiss says. “But it was never a big earthquake, because the country was torn apart into short faults.” In other words, smaller but more frequent earthquakes in Greece have dropped it to 20th on the EQFL list.

Another factor that affects EQFL is a country's disaster preparedness. The West Coast of the United States is known for its earthquakes, yet it ranks second to last on the EQFL study's list. This finding reflects the fact that the United States is a country with scientific resources, enforced building codes, awareness of seismic risks, and warning systems to give residents warning when an earthquake occurs. All of these preparations can help keep deaths low.

For similar reasons, other countries known for their earthquake risk — such as Japan and Mexico — rank low on the list (No. 28 and 32, respectively). Both places have modern or enhanced infrastructure and rapid emergency response systems. Meanwhile, Turkey, which ranks 11th on the EQFL list, has seismic building codes, but they are not always enforced, says Vis.

Advanced EQFL

The news isn't all bleak. For all 35 countries Weiss and his colleagues included in their analysis, deaths from earthquakes declined over time. Moreover, this decline has been observed despite the occurrence of large earthquakes over the past 500 years. This trend may be due to the rapid arrival of aid and the increased efficiency of emergency services. It could also be a result of population moving from rural to urban areas where buildings may be better suited to withstand strong tremors. In the past 500 years, Mexico, Colombia, Ecuador, and California have shown the strongest declines in EQFL. Italy saw the lowest decline due to its older buildings.

Italy saw the lowest decline in EQFL over the past five centuries due to its ancient buildings, like this medieval cathedral in Norcia, which collapsed when an earthquake struck the region in 2016. CC0 Public domain.

The ranking of countries in the EQFL list is not fixed; It is not intended to be a permanent prediction of future deaths or earthquakes. Weiss points out India's low ranking of 33 despite its location along the active Himalayan plate boundary. Its low status comes from the lack of reliable historical records of fatalities and few recent major earthquakes, rather than the truly low risk of social impacts from earthquakes. When the next earthquake happens there, if the death toll rises to relatively high numbers based on population size, it will rise to the top of the list, Weiss says.

Although Wes is retired, he offers his earthquake expertise to the public by operating the QLARM alert system. QLARM provides real-time loss estimates for earthquakes around the world. Each event is given a green, yellow or red signal within half an hour, with the colors providing an estimated range of deaths and injuries for each reported event based on the size, depth and location of the earthquake as well as the population. affected in that particular area. Red represents the highest estimated levels of deaths and infections, yellow represents the average values, and green represents the lowest estimated values.

Combined with resources like QLARM, as well as the USGS's PAGER system, the EQFL could become another tool for raising awareness of areas likely to experience disproportionate earthquake mortality. “Anyone in those small countries can use this information to get their governments to pay attention to the problem and fund earthquake preparedness,” Weiss says.

“When looking at earthquake risk, we tend to examine not only risk but also exposure and vulnerability,” says Dalzell. “This includes infrastructure and the potential for things like business interruptions, but also the potential for fatalities. This is an important metric to know where resilience measures will matter most.”

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