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Bitterroot fault earthquake could cause more than $1 billion in damage
A 7.2 magnitude earthquake along the Bitterroot Fault has the potential to cause more than $1 billion in damage in Ravalli and Missoula counties, officials said this week.
Officials from the Montana Bureau of Mining and Geology (MBMG) and Ravalli County Emergency Management gave a presentation about the fault and the testing they conducted Wednesday night in Hamilton.
A Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) hazard risk report cited at the meeting listed the estimated economic cost of a 7.2 magnitude earthquake, the predicted maximum of the Bitterroot Fault, at about $993 million in Ravalli County and $345 million in Missoula County. . An earthquake of this magnitude is expected to cause nearly twice as much loss of life as the 1959 Hebgen Lake disaster, according to a FEMA report, with 56.7 deaths expected in Ravalli County if the event occurred during the day, and 8.04 Death at night. FEMA's analysis also expects there to be between 245 and 403 people infected in Ravalli County. The death toll is much lower in Missoula County, where 1.49 deaths were expected if the event occurred during the day, 0.157 at night, and 40.5-50 people potentially injured.
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Jan Javelot, a geologist and mining scientist with the Montana office, gives a presentation on the Bitterroot fault and geological hazards in the Bitterroot Valley at the Hamilton Center for the Performing Arts on Thursday, October 17, 2024.
Jessica Abel
One piece of infrastructure potentially vulnerable to a strong earthquake in Ravalli County is the Lake Como Dam, directly beneath which the fault lies. The 2023 MBMG Quadruple Slip Rates Report also notes potential damage to critical infrastructure in many communities across Montana and beyond, including interstate transmission corridors (railroads and highways), and high-voltage transmission lines that carry power to… Pacific Northwest, telecommunications facilities, and fuels. Water pipelines, canals and dams.
Eric Hoover of Ravalli County Emergency Management said the first step in preparing for an earthquake in the area is to be aware of what could happen in the community if the situation arises.
“I know people are aware of the wildland fires, the seasonal flooding that we typically have…but I think a lot of people don't realize that the Bitterroot Bug exists,” he said. “There is no indication of an imminent earthquake, but it is a real risk.”
The Bitterroot Fault is about 100 km long and is active at the base of the Bitterroot Mountains in Ravalli District. Researchers originally thought the fault ran from south of Darby to north of Stevensville, near Florence, but now they believe the fault extends as far south as Conner and north as far as Lolo. MBMG geologist Jan Gavello said they are waiting for LIDAR (light detection and radar) imaging from Missoula County to confirm.
“It appears to be the case,” Javelot said. “We don't have definitive proof, just because we're waiting for the lidar to confirm it… We have more data about slip rates, more data about ages, more data about the history of earthquakes that didn't exist.” Before, we also have more work to do below the surface to figure out what's going on deep down. So there are still things we still don't know, but the error length is a little longer now, but we're still waiting for the additional piece of lidar that hasn't been released yet.
Fault lines in Montana are shown in red in this map from the Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology.
Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology
The size of the fault is important because the longer the fault, the greater the amount of energy that can be released during an earthquake.
The only comparable earthquake of this magnitude recorded in Montana was the 1959 Hebgen Lake earthquake outside the western boundary of Yellowstone National Park, which had a magnitude of 7.3 on the moment magnitude scale. The earthquake caused a massive landslide that blocked the Madison River, creating an earthquake lake. The event killed 28 people, displaced 80 million tons of rock, and caused an estimated $11 million in damage — the equivalent of more than $100 million today.
Researchers are also working to understand how frequent earthquakes occur on the fault. They took core samples from the bottom of Lake Como in April, which will help them determine past large seismic events in the Bitterroot, but the results of those samples won't be available for about a year. Based on the data they have, large seismic events occur approximately every 4,000 to 6,000 years, Gavilo said.
“It will happen every 5,000 years between earthquakes,” he said. “If the last event happened about 6,000 years ago, and it happens every 4,000 to 6,000 years, in terms of frequency, we can expect an earthquake to happen at any time. It could be today, or 100 years from now, or 1,000 years from now – “We don't know, but we assume, within the possibilities, that the next earthquake could happen sometime soon, but we can't at the time of the crack.”
Montana is the fourth most seismically active state in the United States, according to Gallatin County Emergency Management.
Fault lines in western Montana are shown in red with their names. The frequency of earthquakes in the area is in the lower left.
Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology
A magnitude 4.1 earthquake occurred about 8 miles east of Dillon on October 7, 2024, a magnitude 5.8 earthquake shook the ground on July 6, 2017, southeast of Lincoln, and a magnitude 5.6 earthquake occurred 9 miles north of Dillon on July 25. , 2005.
Gavelot said awareness is the No. 1 thing, because if you know there are earthquakes, just like you know there are fire risks, you won't be surprised by them.
“I would like people to be aware and start talking about the dangers of earthquakes,” he said. “So, you have to know it, talk about it, talk to your neighbors so they know about it, and take little steps like that. There are things you do in terms of fire prevention. Do you have food and water for the next two or three days in case you have an earthquake?”
In the event of an earthquake, the main thing you should worry about is taking care of you, your family and loved ones, as well as any animals or pets you may have, Hoover said.
“We've seen time and time again, even accidents here, that first responders are overwhelmed and can't get to everyone right away, even despite how serious some of the damage or injuries are,” he said. “So, if people are able to be self-sufficient and able to survive, and help their communities and neighborhoods, in the interim period between when a disaster strikes and first responders or authorities can get to them, that not only helps them, it helps them.” It helps the entire community.”
The 2023 Quaternary fault map and location map shows the Bitterroot fault and the Bitterroot and Missoula valleys. Researchers with the Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology now believe the fault extends as far south as Conner and north as far as Lolo. They are currently waiting for LIDAR confirmation.
Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology
For more information about how to prepare in the event of an earthquake, visit the USGS Earthquake Preparedness website at usgs.gov/search?keywords=Earthquake%20Preparedness. You can also find earthquake drills and information provided by Great ShakeOut at Shakout.org/.
Learn more about the seismic and geological history of the Bitterroot Valley with the Bitterroot Mountains virtual reality experience, created by MBMG, at youtube.com/watch?v=foHn9TQD9Xc.
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