Amnesty International's prediction of a 30-day Istanbul earthquake is sparking controversy among experts

Cemil Emre Yavaş, a Turkish researcher based at Georgia Southern University in the US, led a team that developed an artificial intelligence algorithm designed to predict earthquakes with remarkable accuracy.

According to Yavaş, the system has shown a 91.65% prediction success rate for potential seismic events in Istanbul, and provides forecasts up to 30 days ahead. This announcement sparked debate about the role of artificial intelligence in earthquake prediction and the consequences of early prediction.

Experts question AI earthquake predictions: 'We can't yet predict earthquakes'

However, some experts urge caution. Professor Naci Gurur, a seismologist who has long studied seismic events in Türkiye, warns against relying on these predictions.

“In order to claim that we are truly predicting earthquakes, we will need specific answers about the timing, location, magnitude and duration of their occurrence,” he explained, highlighting the four main criteria that must be met. He pointed out, “Until now we have not been able to answer all these questions.” “Until now, this is simply not possible.”

A photo taken on February 22, 2024 shows the logo of the artificial intelligence chat application on a smartphone screen in the city of Frankfurt am Main, western Germany. (Photo by Kirill Kudryatsev/AFP) “Forecasting and warning can be as harmful as the earthquake itself.”

Guror expressed concerns about the potential impact of early or incorrect forecasts, saying: “Saying ‘we predicted this’ could be as dangerous as the earthquake itself.” He said such announcements could lead to mass anxiety, mobilize local and national resources, and cause unrest for millions.

“Evacuating areas and restructuring people’s lives – these are not simple tasks. If inaccurate forecasts start to spread, public health could be at great risk,” he said.

He stressed that if countries want to implement predictive systems, they will need strong technological support and regulatory frameworks in place.

Historical precedents and risks of false security

Juror pointed to an example from China, where earthquake prediction has led to success but also to tragic consequences. The 1975 Haicheng earthquake was described as the only earthquake that was accurately predicted three days in advance.

Although 90,000 people were evacuated, preventing an estimated 150,000 deaths, another earthquake just 18 months later led to disaster. He said: “No one expected this earthquake, and misplaced confidence claimed the lives of 242,000 people.”

Predictive limits: what is possible and what is not possible in earthquake prediction

Another respected geologist, Professor Ovgun Ahmet Ercan, expressed his concerns, stressing that partial predictions do not necessarily protect lives or property.

“Knowing the approximate time of an earthquake can be useful, but claiming certainty is a different matter,” he said.

Ercan questioned the reliability of the algorithm, pointing to unanswered questions: “Where did they get their data? What parameters did they use? What was the margin of error?”

He highlighted the challenge of accurately predicting the location, time and magnitude of an earthquake – criteria that no existing technology can yet meet.

What Are The Main Benefits Of Comparing Car Insurance Quotes Online

LOS ANGELES, CA / ACCESSWIRE / June 24, 2020, / Compare-autoinsurance.Org has launched a new blog post that presents the main benefits of comparing multiple car insurance quotes. For more info and free online quotes, please visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/the-advantages-of-comparing-prices-with-car-insurance-quotes-online/ The modern society has numerous technological advantages. One important advantage is the speed at which information is sent and received. With the help of the internet, the shopping habits of many persons have drastically changed. The car insurance industry hasn't remained untouched by these changes. On the internet, drivers can compare insurance prices and find out which sellers have the best offers. View photos The advantages of comparing online car insurance quotes are the following: Online quotes can be obtained from anywhere and at any time. Unlike physical insurance agencies, websites don't have a specific schedule and they are available at any time. Drivers that have busy working schedules, can compare quotes from anywhere and at any time, even at midnight. Multiple choices. Almost all insurance providers, no matter if they are well-known brands or just local insurers, have an online presence. Online quotes will allow policyholders the chance to discover multiple insurance companies and check their prices. Drivers are no longer required to get quotes from just a few known insurance companies. Also, local and regional insurers can provide lower insurance rates for the same services. Accurate insurance estimates. Online quotes can only be accurate if the customers provide accurate and real info about their car models and driving history. Lying about past driving incidents can make the price estimates to be lower, but when dealing with an insurance company lying to them is useless. Usually, insurance companies will do research about a potential customer before granting him coverage. Online quotes can be sorted easily. Although drivers are recommended to not choose a policy just based on its price, drivers can easily sort quotes by insurance price. Using brokerage websites will allow drivers to get quotes from multiple insurers, thus making the comparison faster and easier. For additional info, money-saving tips, and free car insurance quotes, visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ Compare-autoinsurance.Org is an online provider of life, home, health, and auto insurance quotes. This website is unique because it does not simply stick to one kind of insurance provider, but brings the clients the best deals from many different online insurance carriers. In this way, clients have access to offers from multiple carriers all in one place: this website. On this site, customers have access to quotes for insurance plans from various agencies, such as local or nationwide agencies, brand names insurance companies, etc. "Online quotes can easily help drivers obtain better car insurance deals. All they have to do is to complete an online form with accurate and real info, then compare prices", said Russell Rabichev, Marketing Director of Internet Marketing Company. CONTACT: Company Name: Internet Marketing CompanyPerson for contact Name: Gurgu CPhone Number: (818) 359-3898Email: [email protected]: https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ SOURCE: Compare-autoinsurance.Org View source version on accesswire.Com:https://www.Accesswire.Com/595055/What-Are-The-Main-Benefits-Of-Comparing-Car-Insurance-Quotes-Online View photos