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The Inflation Reduction Act: A political earthquake looms on the horizon

The Inflation Reduction Act: A political earthquake looms on the horizon


Were it not for the election season's inundation of news coverage, more people would likely be talking about the revelation that, in the words of one Bloomberg headline: “The World Bank has somehow lost track of at least $24 billion.” In fact, this may understate the reality of the matter: the accounting gap that the World Bank suffers from may reach $41 billion. The missing funds in question were for “climate finance” projects, “funded with taxpayer money from member states, the largest of which is the United States.”

According to the Oxfam report that was the source of the Bloomberg story, “There is no clear public record showing where this money went or how it was used, making any assessment of its effects impossible.” It is possible that much, perhaps most of the money lost, went to the intended people and purposes. But only the hopelessly naive would reject the possibility of rampant waste, irregularities, graft, and outright theft as explanations for this “gap.” Spending of this scale and speed with sloppy supervision is an invitation to thieves.

But the World Bank oversight scandal does not constitute a huge change compared to the US inflation reduction law and the massive planned “climate finance” program. The misnamed Irish Republican Alliance constitutes, in the words of its supporters, “the largest climate policy in US history.” [emphasis added] The law's ambitions are dwarfed by those of the World Bank. According to various estimates, the IRA will lead to about $3 trillion in direct spending on grants, subsidies, and so on, plus another $3 trillion in spending related to enacting mandates and rules. For perspective, this is much higher than the cost of Obamacare, and even more than the $4 trillion the United States spent (adjusted for inflation) to fight World War II.

It makes no difference which side you're on regarding the urgency of climate change: the policies and associated spending revolve almost entirely around trying to create an “energy transition.” Nor does it matter what you think about whether such a shift is plausible (it is not): the sheer magnitude of IRA spending represents a “whole-of-government” opportunity for waste, abuse, and fraud on an unprecedented scale.

If the potential for waste and abuse isn't clear to you, consider some of the well-documented features of federal spending in general. A March 2024 Government Accountability Office (GAO) report on overall federal government spending in fiscal year 2023 found that “more than $175 billion of the errors were overpayments — for example, payments to deceased individuals or those who no longer qualify.” for government programs,” and “$44.6 billion.” “It was an unknown payment.” [emphasis added] The only “good news” was that the “unknowns” were $11 billion less than in the previous fiscal year, when Covid funds were still being spent freely, the GAO wrote. And again, only the naive would conclude that waste, fraud, and abuse were not responsible for any of those “anonymous” payments and “errors” in the normal course of our government’s $6 trillion annual budget.

And now comes the IRA, another federal government flush, whose total $6 trillion of money has been directed to “climate finance,” with far fewer administrative and oversight barriers than we typically find in federal programs. What could go wrong?

Where are all the inquisitive investigative journalists? Fortunately, a few still exist, most notably James Varney of RealClearInvestigations, who recently published a preliminary investigation: “Overnight Success: Biden’s Climate Splurge Gives Billions to New Nonprofits.”

The purpose of the Varney Inquiry was not to cast doubt on the effectiveness of key spending policies, their cost-effectiveness, or their ability to achieve their stated objectives. (For the record, we have good reasons to question the effectiveness of the policies and their goals. For example, a new analysis by the National Bureau of Economic Research reveals that “the IRA spends between $23,000 and $32,000 on every additional electric vehicle sold.”) Varney for answers to simple questions that fall within the scope of investigative journalism: Who gets the money, and what is it spent on? Let's hope Varney inspires more reporters to dig deeper, because the massive scope of the “whole-of-government” spending program can't be covered by one person.

By necessity, Varney focused on just one small corner: the White House's $27 billion greenhouse gas reduction fund. As an EPA press release announced last April: “The Biden-Harris Administration announces $20 billion in grants to mobilize private capital and deliver clean energy and climate solutions to communities across America.” Varney found that there is “not a lot of public information” about many of the organizations receiving funding, nor about what they are doing or planning to do with the money.

Just reading the EPA's press release would raise some reasonable questions about the potential for waste and its connection to “climate.” For example, an EPA announcement states that one award is intended to “[d]Allocates more than $14 billion to low-income and disadvantaged communities, including more than $4 billion for rural communities as well as nearly $1.5 billion for tribal communities – ensuring program benefits flow to communities most in need and strengthening the President's Justice 40 Initiative. Should To say that poor societies consume much less energy than rich societies? Therefore, changing behaviors or procurement among them will do almost nothing to achieve the ERA's stated climate goals. Regardless, one may want to know more about what specifically the grant recipient organizations are doing or will do, and who is running them.

One of the award recipients achieved nonprofit status in 2023 and eight months later received a $940 million award, Varney reported. Another holder made $2 billion just one month after obtaining nonprofit status and showing a previously reported income of $100 (not a typo). Varney does not accuse any of these organizations of crimes. It just seeks to clarify a few things about who got what, when and where the money goes. However, when he contacted different recipients, he received no responses or elliptical responses.

Again, regardless of the question of whether the spending will be useful, any reasonable person might object that we are still in the early days and that such an ambitious program is difficult to implement. It's all true. But of course, the beginning is exactly the time when opportunities for waste and fraud are built into the program. Varney reports: “ [$27 billion] The awards were made by the Environmental Protection Agency, an organization new to the world of making major grants. The agency admits it has never distributed such huge sums of money, and its inspector general told Congress last month that it represented a “fantastically complex” and “unusual” setup that would be difficult for his junior staff to follow.

And so we return to the obvious questions, such as: How is the grant donor organized to evaluate and monitor funding recipients? How many groups are formed by political insiders? On the latter issue, such arrangements can be quite benign, because insiders know where the money and opportunities lie. But the public has the right to know more. One certainly hopes that Congress will impose effective oversight. It's a huge amount of money. And again, from the Varney report: “I can't say enough about the complexity of this system,” EPA Inspector General Sean O'Donnell testified before a House subcommittee in September. “It's like they started an investment bank.” It's fantastically complex. “I think it's unusual.”

The Democrats were keen to extol the virtues of the IRA. (The law passed without a single Republican vote, only the second time something so momentous was so partisan. The other was Obamacare, which, notable, did not create a “whole government” of billions of dollars in grants Given the IRA's stated claims and goals, and the amount of money already spent, one would expect to see more news and press releases touting the program's successes, as the IRA is ultimately the most expensive effort ever undertaken to restructure an entire American sector .

In the absence of more information, we can make some reasonable assumptions: If the IRA is subject to typical levels of waste, abuse, and fraud due to government largesse, then odds are that a major political shift is on the horizon. Perhaps more than any other factor, the dismantling of the climate-industrial complex may come from the amount of money being pushed into the economy to accelerate an impossible goal: the “energy transition.”

The popular expression “follow the money” comes from the famous 1976 film “All the President's Men,” which highlighted the investigation of the Watergate scandal and the political earthquake that followed. The IRA's spending dwarfs anything that precedes it. If serious investigative journalists follow the money, it's good to see huge scandals emerge.

Photo by Anna Rose Leyden/Getty Images

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