Here's what a 7.2 magnitude earthquake would do to Vancouver

A new report says up to 1,350 people will die or suffer serious injuries, and nearly 6,100 privately owned buildings will be severely damaged.

A new city report examining what a 7.2-magnitude earthquake could do to Vancouver concludes that as many as 1,350 people would die or suffer serious injuries, and nearly 6,100 privately owned buildings would sustain significant damage.

The report, prepared by Micah Hilt of the City of Vancouver and Dr. Tegan E. Hobbs of Natural Resources Canada said such an earthquake would also disable and displace more than a third of the population and workers for several months.

The authors estimated direct financial losses at $17 billion.

“Even a less severe earthquake, like the one used in the city's 2019 VanSlam earthquake drill, could disable and displace up to 25,000 residents and workers for more than three months, and cause up to 200 people with serious injuries and deaths,” he said. . The report focused on privately owned buildings.

The conclusions were based on the authors' use of a program that modeled a 7.2 magnitude earthquake whose epicenter was in the Strait of Georgia. The modeling included a detailed building inventory developed by city staff.

The assessment showed that a combination of five building types accounted for nearly 80 percent of the city-wide risk in terms of serious injury, death, disruption and long-term displacement.

The highest concentration of risk is found in the West End, Downtown East (including Chinatown, Strathcona), Midtown, Kitsilano, Fairview and Mount Pleasant.

“These six most at-risk neighborhoods collectively contribute an average of 65 percent of the citywide seismic risk while containing the city and region’s two largest employment districts and more than two-thirds of purpose-built market rental units in the city’s densest residential neighborhoods.” The report said.

The building types contain the majority of the city's total residential units, including 80 percent of purpose-built rental units, as well as downtown offices and small businesses serving the neighborhoods.

Tenants are at risk

Not all buildings are equally at risk.

“We know from modeling and engineering experience that buildings were built before early modern seismic design requirements [1990] More importantly, buildings that were built before seismic design requirements were introduced [1973] “They are most at risk of serious damage leading to injuries, disruption and long-term displacement of passengers,” the report said.

The authors said this finding is concerning because older, purpose-built rental buildings provide relatively affordable housing options in the private market due to their longer lifespans and rentals.

A recent study by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation found that median rents in Vancouver for units built before 1960 are approximately 35 per cent lower than rents for units built from 2015 onward.

An analysis of census data from “moderate to highest risk areas” within these neighborhoods indicated that nearly 70 percent of residents, on average, are renters.

Of these renters, nearly 20 percent are low-income, more than 10 percent are seniors, 30 percent are visible minorities, and four percent are Indigenous.

“These groups may face additional challenges and structural barriers in preparing their households and recovering from the earthquake, putting them at greater risk than other populations,” the report said.

“Injuries and deaths on the streets”

From past earthquakes elsewhere, the authors said cordoning off city areas is often required. A cordon is where areas with high concentrations of damage are closed off to the government for weeks, months, or even years at a time.

Areas such as the West End, which contains many older multi-unit mid- and high-rise concrete apartment buildings, and the Downtown Eastside, which contains many unreinforced masonry, are particularly at risk of cordoning off.

“Coronation preserves life safety during earthquake response but increases the duration and difficulty of recovery, increasing long-term social and economic impacts,” the report said.

“Major streets and commercial arteries throughout the city, which contain many unreinforced, wood and low-rise concrete commercial buildings, are also at high risk. These streets, as well as streets throughout the Downtown Eastside and downtown, face an additional risk of injuries and fatalities.” In the streets due to falling building debris.

Along many major roads, such as Hastings Street, Kingsway and others, street debris has the potential to disrupt emergency response and disrupt transportation as well.

“These obstacles increase the effects of earthquake damage and, like cordoning off, increase the duration and difficulty of recovery, and increase long-term social and economic impacts,” the report said.

“Challenging risk reduction measures”

Actions to reduce earthquake risk do not need to be taken all at once, the authors say.

They said it could start with small, strategic actions in a limited number of the most vulnerable buildings and in a limited set of vulnerable areas in the city.

“Small actions that quickly build on existing city policies and programs have the added benefit of enhancing awareness and putting the city in a good position to pursue additional provincial and federal government funding and tools to support more challenging risk reduction actions,” the report said.

“The sooner Vancouver begins to take action to reduce risks, even if they are modest at first, the less difficult it will be to protect residents and ensure long-term recovery.”

The report is scheduled to go before the City Council on November 12.

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