The report shows the impact an earthquake could have on Vancouver

A new report from the City of Vancouver and Natural Resources Canada has laid out how a 7.2 magnitude earthquake could impact Vancouver, highlighting six neighborhoods in high-risk areas.

In the report, the areas of Vancouver's West End, Yaletown, Downtown East Side, Quisilano, Fairview and Mount Pleasant are most at risk of damage from a major earthquake.

The report also stated that if a major earthquake centered in the Georgia Strait occurred, there would be more than 1,300 casualties and more than 6,000 privately owned buildings damaged in Vancouver.

The report's co-author says the economic impact on the city could reach more than $17 billion, with a loss of $30 billion countywide.

“If we don't repair those buildings, when an earthquake happens, people will come out of those homes, those homes, those buildings,” said Dr. Tegan Hobbs, a seismic hazard scientist with Natural Resources Canada.

“Everyone will move out at once while we have to rebuild everything, unlike these programs where we may have to move people in to fix the building but we can do it in stages and work towards it slowly for many years or even decades.”

Hobbs said in the report that three types of problematic buildings should be prioritized for retrofitting: old high-rise concrete buildings in the West End and downtown, and older brick and wood residential buildings.

While this retrofit is still underway, Vancouver City Council. Pete Fry says it will be important to secure funding from the provincial and federal governments as they develop a strategy to reduce future earthquake risks.

“Upon receipt of the report, the next step will be to come up with a plan for how to deal with these risks in a sensible and thoughtful way, recognizing that we are already facing a housing and affordability crisis,” Fry said. “This is not an inexpensive project, and if we want to replace these high-rise buildings… “Seismic risks, it will cost us a lot of money, and it will take some time.”

“It's a complex undertaking, and I hope this will enrich conversations not only here in the City of Vancouver but also with the region, the province and of course the federal government, because it will need 'all hands on deck' especially when it comes to private property.”

While the numbers outlined in the report are “doom and gloom,” the chances of a major earthquake hitting the city within the next 50 years are about 5 percent, Hobbs says.

This report will be presented to Vancouver City Council at its next meeting on Tuesday.

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