A new report shows what would happen to Vancouver if a major earthquake struck

If a major earthquake hits Vancouver, it could kill or seriously injure more than 1,350 people, and severely damage or destroy nearly 6,100 buildings, according to a new report.

The 71-page report — written by city seismographer Micah Hilt and Dr. Tegan Hobbs of Natural Resources Canada — will be presented to council next Tuesday to inform a plan to reduce future seismic risks for private buildings in Vancouver.

These grim numbers are based on modeling programs that predicted what would happen in the event of a 7.2 magnitude earthquake in the Strait of Georgia.

According to Natural Resources Canada, the chances of a “very strong” earthquake occurring in the region within the next 50 years is one in five.

A hypothetical 7.2-magnitude Strait of Georgia earthquake would not only cause more than 1,000 casualties and destroy thousands more buildings; The report says that more than 350,000 people will be displaced from their homes for at least three months, and direct financial losses will reach $17 billion.

The researchers indicated that a smaller earthquake could displace up to 25,000 people and kill or seriously injure up to 200 others.

The study did not take into account the after-effects of a large earthquake, such as tsunamis, landslides, aftershocks, delays in emergency response, and fires.

Which buildings are most at risk?

The study identified five general types of buildings that are most at risk of sustaining significant damage and causing long-term displacement. The findings are based on a city inventory of about 90,000 buildings as of 2018.

She says roughly 80 per cent of the city's “seismic risk” comes from these buildings, even though they include a very small fraction of all buildings in Vancouver. They include mid- and high-rise multi-unit residential buildings (MURBs); MURBs unreinforced construction. Timber-framed MURBs; Low-rise unreinforced, wood and concrete commercial buildings; Medium and high-rise concrete commercial buildings.

For example, the report says that 45% of all displaced individuals, according to the model, would be those living in old, timber-framed apartment buildings, for a total of 103,900 people. The highest proportion of “residential casualties” modeled occurred in concrete residential buildings: 40 percent, or 230 people.

Importantly, “at-risk” buildings include the majority of Vancouver’s total residential units, including 80 per cent of purpose-built rentals, as well as SRO buildings, businesses and small offices in neighbourhoods. Those most at risk of partial or complete collapse or becoming uninhabitable are buildings built before 1990, with a more severe outlook if they were built before 1973.

“This finding is concerning because older purpose-built rental buildings provide relatively affordable housing options in the private market given their age and longer lease term,” the report states.

Where will the damage be worst?

The report says the highest-risk neighborhoods are the West End, Downtown East Side, Midtown, Quisilano, Fairview and Mount Pleasant — areas that are home to major employment centers and more than two-thirds of the city's purpose-built rental units.

Researchers say census data from the most at-risk pockets within those neighborhoods show that nearly 70 percent of people are renters, nearly 20 percent are low-income, more than 10 percent are seniors, and 30 percent are The cent is considered visible. Minorities and 4 percent are indigenous.

“These groups may face additional challenges and structural barriers in preparing their families and recovering from the earthquake, putting them at greater risk than other populations,” the report states.

The report also notes that cordoning off severely damaged areas for weeks, months or even years after a strong earthquake is often required, and that the West End, with its old concrete buildings, and the Downtown East Side, with its old brick buildings, are among the affected areas. So vulnerable.

“Coronation preserves life safety during earthquake response but increases the duration and difficulty of recovery, increasing long-term social and economic impacts,” the report states.

What's next?

The report concludes by saying that a major earthquake threatens the lives, homes and businesses of Vancouver residents, adding that most of the city's affordable housing and many small businesses would be permanently lost.

“Overall, a major earthquake is one of the most significant public safety risks facing Vancouver, but one that is well understood after detailed risk assessment and analysis.”

The authors hypothesize that seismic risk reduction can start with small actions in a limited number of high-risk buildings in specific areas of the city, which are outlined in the report.

“Small actions that quickly build on existing city policies and programs have the added benefit of enhancing awareness and putting the city in a good position to pursue additional additional government funding and tools to support more challenging risk reduction actions,” the report says.

“The sooner Vancouver begins to take action to reduce risks, even if they are modest at first, the less difficult it will be to protect residents and ensure long-term recovery.”

The full report is available online.

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