Two hurricanes, an earthquake, and Trump

From eastern to western Cuba, three natural events have caused us great harm. Two hurricanes and an earthquake have combined to make these last two months of the year more difficult, leaving us with a lot of bad memories and disappointments.

It is difficult to quantify the extent of the damage, but there is no doubt that the cost of these three events is very high for the national economy. Even higher than that, because the country’s economic and material conditions “facilitated” the destruction beyond imagination.

These events have further highlighted the infrastructural deficiencies – water, electricity, communications, roads, etc. – that we already knew and experienced, as well as those associated with operations in which systematicity was lost, such as tree pruning, solid waste collection and others. In these services, it was proven that the responsible institutions did not do what people entrusted them with.

There are multiple reasons, some of them strange and external – such as the restrictions imposed by the blockade – but others not, and these are linked to errors of management and leadership and above all with the lack of resolution in matters that – at least in theory – guidelines, perception – have been agreed upon. What it looks like.

How can we be burdened for so many years with so many shortcomings and shortcomings in the waste collection service that does not guarantee the cleanliness of cities and neighborhoods? How could preventative pruning service not be performed properly, even though so many companies are responsible? Why, if state institutions cannot do this, is it not possible to resort to and encourage the creation of non-governmental institutions in options such as public-private partnership?

Garbage clogs a street in the Vedado neighborhood in Havana. Photo: Ms.

Today, much of the damage to the transportation network is due to massive tree falls on the networks. The local governments and institutions involved in these services lack the capacity to respond sufficiently to return the population to this special normality that we are experiencing in a reasonable time, despite the enormous efforts of workers, officials, organizations and the military.

Hurricane Rafael has outdone us with its devastating power and the accumulation of vulnerabilities it has exploited.

Hurricane season is not over yet, and Tropical Depression 19 has just formed in the Caribbean Sea, south of Cuba, with a high probability of becoming a hurricane. So far, this may not affect us – we have to be vigilant – but we are all very concerned.

Under these circumstances, there is little we can do but better prepare and learn from what happened to us with Rafael, just as we learned from what happened with Oscar at Guantanamo a few days ago. With Raphael, information reached everyone and the costliest and most painful loss, that of human beings, could be avoided.

The other hurricane, which directly threatens our country, will last for at least four years. It will affect the entire island, from one end to the other, from the northern coast to our last keys on the southern coast. There is no need to predict its path or the strength of its winds. This other hurricane will be managed by the same team that designed Trump's Cuba policy (2017-2021), which Biden has maintained almost to the letter.

In recent days, she has been filled with posthumous comments about Trump's victory and the defeat of the Democratic political apparatus, much more so than Kamala. And also about the meaning of such an overwhelming victory in that it expresses the values ​​of the majority of the United States population who voted for the ideas that Trump knew how to sell, exploiting disappointment and weariness with the Democratic administration.

Indecision, incoherence, and broken promises are among the worst diseases a government can suffer from. They are usually deadly, and Democrats are paying the price for them today and will probably continue to pay for them for a long time.

Damage to homes after the earthquake that struck the municipality of Belun. Photo: EFE/St

The positive thing about Trump's election to Cuba today is that we already know what to expect from that administration. They will “modernize”/”modernize” the policy that was designed eight years ago to put more pressure on the country, and comply with that memorandum issued by the Eisenhower administration over sixty years ago that served as a mandate for every state of the United States. departments since then.

They, like recent hurricanes, will exploit every one of our many vulnerabilities. It's not news. They were already doing that.

We are now at what Acemoglu calls a “critical juncture.” That is, “major events that disrupt the existing political and economic balance in one or multiple societies.”

It is not written or predetermined what the results will be; We do not know today whether this new season will end with a success that will prolong the survival of this “new” Republican Party – perhaps headed by Marcos Rubio as a potential next president – or whether, on the contrary, it will lead the country. United States to operations that endanger the core of the Union.

But what we do know is that this critical situation, in any of its forms, is crucial for our country.

Believing that a saving hand will appear that will allow us to continue to survive is as naive and dangerous as ceasing to struggle every day against this policy that is drowning us. We need to strengthen our neck muscles.

We need profound institutional changes that will allow our country to adapt to this “critical situation”, limit its impact, take advantage of the spaces it may leave, promote and encourage inclusive growth, make the reforms we need and, above all, start now, because there is no time. In our favor.

Right now, we are just in the eye of the hurricane. Soon the damaging winds will begin.

Debris on a street after Hurricane Rafael passed. Photo: EFE/Felipe Borrego. Dr. C. Juan Triana Cordovi

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