Seismic data can predict war

Earthquake in Iran

The October 7 attack came as a shock and surprise to civilians and the Israeli army. But technology used to predict earthquakes and seismic shocks could be used to detect future attacks, say researchers from Tel Aviv University. They looked at data leading up to the attack in which Israel was breached, with 1,200 people killed and 250 kidnapped, and they say unusual activity could be sensed in seismic measurements taken at the time. Of course, it's retrospective data and conclusions, but researchers reveal that on the morning of October 7, roughly half an hour before the deadly terrorist attack, stations recorded weak but widespread man-made seismic noise.

The researchers attribute this anomalous seismic amplitude to the unusual movement of heavy vehicles inside the Gaza Strip, heading towards regulatory points along the Israeli border 20 minutes before the earth wall was breached.

Forensic seismology is often used to monitor conventional and nuclear explosions, the researchers explain. However, this is the first time in history that weak ground motions resulting from preparations for a terrorist attack have been identified by analyzing the characteristics of seismic noise generated by vehicular traffic.

They believe this discovery demonstrates the potential use of seismic sensing technology to provide early warnings of terrorist activity.

RELATED: Sex crimes reported by the UN on October 7

The study, led by Assaf Inbal of the Department of Geophysics at Tel Aviv University's Porter School of Environment and Geosciences and the Sackler School of Exact Sciences, was published in The Seismic Record, a journal of the Seismological Society of America.

Israel has experienced catastrophic earthquakes over the centuries, and much of this data was gathered from church records sent to the Vatican over the years. Israel has been saying for 30 years that a major earthquake can be expected at any time. Türkiye is very seismically active in the past 10 years, but recent research indicates that the tectonic plates between Turkey and the Dead Sea Rift are not or no longer connected.

In İskenderun, Türkiye – one of the places most affected by the 7.7 magnitude earthquake whose epicenter was in Kahramanmaraş

Inbal explains the data they found about the October 7 attack: “The Israel Geological Survey operates a national network of dozens of highly sensitive seismometers that constantly monitor ground movements. This network is primarily designed to detect earthquakes and determine Their locations and provide warnings of strong earthquakes caused by large-scale seismic events.

“However, three stations in the network – located in Amazia, Ketsiot and Whitir, between 30 and 50 kilometers from Gaza – recorded unusual seismic noise levels early in the morning of 7 October 2023. This noise can be confidently attributed to activity Vehicles in Gaza as Hamas terrorists gathered to carry out the attack. The time frame was between 6:00 and 6:30 a.m., before the rocket fire began.

“The probability that the recorded signals originate in Gaza is more than 99.9%.

“The movements recorded near the seismometers were in the range of tens of nanometers per second, while the minimum ground motion that humans can detect is several millimeters per second,” Inbal explains. “The characteristics of the noise emanating from Gaza and picked up by Israeli stations are fundamentally different from those recorded by the same stations on previous Saturdays during those hours.

“We analyzed three years of data from a trio of Israeli stations recorded in the same time frame preceding the attack. We found no example for Saturday morning when correlated amplitudes at all three stations were recorded for more than 10 minutes. It is important to note that these stations are spaced over The range is wide, and each station is primarily sensitive to seismic noise generated by nearby human activity.

“For example, the distance between Ketziot and Amazia is about 80 kilometers, and on previous Saturdays, there was no correlation between the data recorded at these stations. On the morning of the attack, when local activity near the stations was minimal, we found a unique large-scale seismic amplitude, which increased monotonically as the attack approached.

“No known natural or human source on the Israeli side can generate seismic signals with a distribution and intensity similar to those attributed to the Hamas movements. Although the open-air music festival near Re'im generated some seismic noise, our analysis shows that this noise does not match the strength or location of the noise sources recorded by the Israel Seismic Network on October 7.

Analysis indicates that the detected seismic noise began at 6:00 a.m. and intensified as the attack approached. Sometimes, the noise contained short bursts powerful enough to identify its source and track its progress. The location and density of these sources in Gaza indicate that vehicle movements progressed south and north within Gaza, from Rafah in the south to the Erez crossing in the north, during the thirty minutes preceding the attack.

“We have a good solution along the Salah al-Din Road, which is a main road that crosses Gaza from Rafah in the south to Beit Lahia in the north,” says Inbal. He added: “We can confirm with a high degree of certainty that their forces moved on this road at a speed ranging between 25 to 50 kilometers per hour. Observations from stations tens of kilometers from the Gaza border indicate the presence of convoys of heavy machinery, such as bulldozers and trucks, carrying activists.

“Three minutes before the attack began, we detected noise sources reaching the northern end of Gaza near Beit Lahia and the southern end near Khan Yunis. At the same time, we continued to receive signals from central Gaza near Nuseirat. We know that the attack began simultaneously Almost along the entire border, these seismic observations provide further evidence of the heavy deployment of Hamas forces, likely enabling a simultaneous breach of the land barrier.

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