'Non-destructive' tsunami detected after California earthquake. The simulation shows real risks

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Residents along the West Coast were shocked when a 7.0-magnitude earthquake struck the area last week, triggering a tsunami warning and two terrifying watches for more than 5 million people.

While the tsunami warning was canceled shortly after evacuations and transportation stopped, meteorologists in San Francisco said a small wave was seen off the California coast.

“A non-destructive tsunami wave was observed earlier today near Point Arena,” the National Weather Service Bay Area office wrote on social media. “This serves as a reminder that we already have a rift capable of producing tsunamis in our neighbourhood. We don't deal with this very often, but when we do it pays to know yours!”

The wave height was only nine centimeters and was measured around Arena Cove at 11:46 a.m. PT last Thursday. The cove is located in Mendocino County on the northern shores of the state. A three-hour drive north is the city of Ferndale in Humboldt County, which was closer to the epicenter.

While the wave generated by this earthquake did not result in a disaster, officials have warned people not to assume that the next event will play out the same way.

“If you evacuated, you did the right thing. Tsunamis are rare, but they can be very deadly,” the National Weather Service’s Bay Area office said in a social media post. “For perspective, nearly 230,000 are lost.” “They lost their lives in the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the deadliest natural disaster of the 21st century.”

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The map shows the tsunami danger zone in California, shaded in yellow. Tsunamis are among the rarest natural hazards on Earth, but preparing for them remains crucial (California Geological Survey)

Geologists said the quake was what is known as a strike-slip, meaning two of the Earth's tectonic plates slid next to each other. The Earth is made up of these plates, and they are constantly in motion.

“These types of earthquakes are less likely to cause tsunamis because their movement is primarily horizontal with minimal vertical movement of the ocean floor,” the USGS explained.

However, recent research by academics at the California Institute of Technology suggests that strike-slip faults can generate large tsunamis.

“Slip faults are capable of generating powerful tsunamis, as we saw just six years ago,” Dr. Ahmed El-Banna, associate professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign and lead author of the work, told The Independent.

“When seismic faults slide, the surrounding ground moves and deforms like rubber in a waistband. This movement can cause stress on nearby faults to increase or decrease, making Additional earthquakes are more likely in some areas and less likely in others Independent Email “If pressures increase on a fault close enough, it could trigger an earthquake. However, we cannot know if this will happen until it does.”

In this case, aftershock forecasts indicate there is less than a one percent chance of another 7.0 magnitude earthquake next year. Scientists say the possibility of smaller events near Site 7.0 can be expected in the near term, but experts do point to an expected increase in strike activity elsewhere.

If the energy from such an earthquake is large enough and close enough to the ocean floor, it could cause the ocean floor to suddenly rise or fall, according to the USGS. As the ocean floor rises and falls, so does the ocean water above it. While earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or less are unlikely to trigger a tsunami, and those with a magnitude between 6.5 and 7.5 typically do not produce damaging tsunamis, larger earthquakes may produce much worse outcomes.

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Simulation shows tsunami wave behavior along the Central California coast. For visualization purposes, 70 minutes of elapsed time was compressed to 20 seconds and the tsunami wave amplitude was amplified (USGS/Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center)

Large tsunamis have occurred in the United States and will occur again. A 9.2 magnitude earthquake in the Gulf of Alaska caused damage and loss of life along the West Coast in 1964. More than 150 tsunamis have struck California shore since 1800. The 2011 tsunami that struck Japan also caused $100 million in damage to the state's ports And its ports. Ports.

The best way to prepare is to be aware of the risks a tsunami may pose to the immediate environment. Interactive risk maps created using computer modeling can show which areas are in critical areas.

In the future, there can still be improvements. The modeling that forms the basis for tsunami warnings is determined using observations from buoys floating in the deep ocean. The California Geological Survey says placing more of these buoys in key locations could help.

“These buoys are exposed to harsh conditions at sea, so having extra buoys in the ocean will help when some buoys break down,” Patton and Bohon said.

Furthermore, research focused on using GPS to help model earthquakes that generate tsunamis could improve initial tsunami size estimates from the National Tsunami Warning Center.

But guidance on what to do during a tsunami threat has remained largely unchanged.

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People walk along the sand at Ocean Beach in San Francisco during a tsunami warning on Thursday. During a tsunami, people should head inland and move to higher ground ((AP Photo/Emily Steinberger))

When a tsunami is about to hit, there are several signs to look out for. For example, the ocean may look like a wall of water or a rising flood. They can also drain suddenly, exposing fish and the ocean floor. A loud roaring sound may emanate from the ocean. However, people may not see natural tsunami warnings and should be aware of official tsunami warnings, such as broadcasts, radio emergency alerts, and messages from officials. Sirens may sound, indicating that an area is at risk, in the one in which they are located.

For people in tsunami hazard and evacuation zones or low-lying coastal areas who feel a strong or prolonged earthquake or see any natural warnings, a tsunami can arrive within just minutes. Meteorologists recommend heading as high or as far inland as possible. Those who can must move to a safe place and not wait for warnings or official instructions. They have to do this on foot because traveling by car may cause traffic that may prevent people from evacuating.

They should also avoid earthquake damage such as fallen power lines and stay away from buildings, bridges and sidewalks. Heavy objects may fall from it during an aftershock. Residents should stay outside the tsunami danger area or evacuate until officials say it is safe to do so. The first wave may not be the last or largest, and the danger may last for hours or days.

Planning your evacuation now can be life-saving in the future. Emergency plans must include evacuation routes and tsunami danger areas. Plans must also include several specific locations that are safe for people to access, in the event of logistical complications such as road closures and damage. Those with children should know their school's evacuation plans. The National Weather Service advises people to practice evacuation routes on foot, including at night and in bad weather.

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This interactive map shows the potential for tsunami flooding along the Oregon coast. A tsunami warning has been issued for the south-central Oregon coast and the Curry County coast (Oregon.gov/Oregon Tsunami Clearinghouse)

In California, tsunami danger zones extend from Crescent City to San Diego. Current maps are drawn with boundaries from the California Geological Survey. Danger areas are highlighted in yellow. The latest changes showed increases in Monterey in central California, and the state said large areas of Alameda County in northern California could be flooded with up to 18 feet of water.

2021 maps showed that in San Francisco, a tsunami from a large earthquake in Alaska would take about five hours to reach the city of more than 800,000 people.

“When the coast is surrounded by steep cliffs, flooding will not extend inland like in more flat, low-lying places (such as bays or estuaries). Also, places like the entrance to San Francisco Bay can limit tsunami flow, causing The tsunami should be smaller (in height and amount of land inundation).”

Cascadia tsunami simulation reveals West Coast disaster risks

In neighboring Oregon, the map has different colors, marking out tsunami evacuation zones farther away than local areas. What appears in green is outside the danger zone.

On the coast, Washington has hazard maps prepared for multiple tsunami scenarios. Metropolitan Seattle — home to more than 730,000 people — is at risk in both the Seattle Fault earthquake scenario and the 9.0 magnitude Cascadia earthquake scenario. Simulations of this scenario demonstrate its destructive power throughout the Pacific Ocean and along the coast.

Most inland areas are safe, but the extent of safety depends on the size of the earthquake and its consequences.

“Washington is ranked as the second-highest earthquake hazard area in the United States, and therefore is at high tsunami risk as well,” Ewingard said.

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Broken bottles litter the floor inside E&J Liquors after a 7.0 magnitude earthquake struck Thursday. Only minor damage was reported ((Savana Robinson via AP))

Thursday's earthquake occurred in what is known as “earthquake country” because three tectonic plates meet there. There have been just under 40 earthquakes of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the past century within 150 miles of Thursday's quake, which was the strongest quake to shake the state since a 7.1 magnitude quake struck Ridgecrest in 2019.

With reports from the Associated Press

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