Prepare for the next big event; Guidance from the USGS

SALINAS, Calif. (KION-TV) – In light of a 7.0 magnitude earthquake that struck Northern California in early December, followed by hundreds of aftershocks and even another 5.8 magnitude quake not far from the border, people's minds are shaking.

“We can't predict earthquakes but we can understand what the risks are over longer time periods based on how frequently these earthquakes occurred in the distant past,” said Curtis Baden, a scientist with the US Geological Survey in San Jose. “When I say a distant corridor, I'm talking about the last few thousand years.”

Baden says that depending on where the geographic area is, he will determine what he calls a “recurrence period.”

“For example, there was a very large earthquake in Hayward in 1868… It's been about 150 years since that earthquake happened, and the Hayward earthquake recurrence interval historically is about 160 years, give or take a few years,” Baden said. .

Baden says that if scientists follow this model in the Hayward area, a major earthquake there right now is not unrealistic.

“In the Gulf region over the next 30 years, there is a greater than two in three chance that we will see strength exceeding 6.7 degrees,” he said.

The last major earthquake to rock the area was the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake that shook homes and businesses along the Central Coast on October 17 at 5:04 p.m. It measured 6.9, based on what scientists use to measure earthquakes, the now old-fashioned Richter scale.

Regarding aftershocks, Baden says they are not only common, but expected, especially after a large earthquake.

He added: “There is a 5% chance of an earthquake following it with greater force.”

Baden says people need to prepare before an earthquake strikes and not scramble to get things ready after the fact.

“We need to be prepared. Seismic equipment must be ready [and] “Know the proper protocols to protect yourself and your family when an earthquake occurs, because it will happen,” he said.

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