Ground Penetrating: Advances in Earthquake Prediction

Geologist Tim Little measures curved dents on an Alpine fault. (Credit: Nick Barth/UCR)

RIVERSIDE, Calif. – For millions of people living in earthquake-prone areas, from New Zealand to California, a few minutes of warning could mean the difference between life and death. Now, by studying ancient curved scratches left on fault surfaces from past seismic events, scientists have discovered a way to better predict how earthquakes will travel and affect different areas.

The study, published in the journal Geology, offers a new way of understanding earthquake behavior that could change the way we prepare for these natural disasters. The research focuses on the curved dents left on fault planes when huge masses of earth collide with each other during an earthquake. These marks, called skidlines, act somewhat like tire marks at the scene of an accident, revealing the direction of travel.

“Fault planes accumulate these curved scratch marks, which we didn't yet know how to look for or interpret,” explains Nick Barth, a geologist at the University of California, Riverside and lead author, in a statement.

To understand how these ancient marks could help save lives, the research team turned to the Alpine Fault in New Zealand, a massive 850-kilometre-long fault in the Earth's crust that handles up to 80% of the movement between the island's Pacific and Australian tectonic plates. South in New Zealand. This fault is not just a geological feature, it is a time bomb with a 75% chance of exploding in the next 50 years. What makes them particularly interesting to scientists is their clock-like regularity, producing major earthquakes approximately every 250 years.

Examples of curved scratches documented in this study. (Credit: Nick Barth/UCR)

The researchers focused their investigation on a remarkable section of the Alpine Fault known as the “Earthquake Gateway.” This zone can either stop earthquakes in their tracks or allow them to continue their journey, a decision with dire consequences. When earthquakes surge through this portal, they transform from magnitude 7.5 events to much stronger magnitude 8.0 quakes, greatly increasing their destructive potential.

The implications of this research reach far beyond New Zealand's shores. “The dents indicate the direction and origin of a previous earthquake, which could give us clues about where a future earthquake might start and where it will go,” Barth points out. “This is key for California, as predicting the direction of an earthquake on faults like the San Andreas or San Jacinto could mean More accurate forecasts of its impact.

Understanding the direction of earthquake movement is not just an academic curiosity, it can provide crucial additional minutes of warning time for vulnerable populations. Consider the case of Los Angeles: If a large earthquake started near the Salton Sea and moved north along the San Andreas Fault, it would direct intense energy toward the city. However, this scenario could also give residents a minute's warning through cellular alert systems – valuable time that could allow people to cover up, stop medical procedures, or shut down vital systems.

Lead author Nick Barth at Alpine Fault. The Australian Plate is on the left, while the Pacific Plate is on the right. (Credit: Jesse Kearse/Kyoto University)

The study revealed two important findings about the Alpine Fault: The massive 1717 earthquake moved from south to north, a trend that models show produces more intense tremors in populated areas. Perhaps more importantly, they discovered that major earthquakes can start from either end of the fault, a previously unknown possibility.

These insights have inspired researchers to begin looking for similar curved signs on other major fault systems around the world. “We can now use the techniques and expertise we developed on the Alpine Fault to examine faults in the rest of the world,” explains Barth. “Because there is a high probability of a major earthquake in Southern California in the near term, looking for these curved signs on the San Andreas Fault is an obvious goal.” “.

Like nature's geological record, these curved lines tell stories about ancient earthquakes, helping us prepare for future ones. As Barth emphasizes, “There is no doubt that this new knowledge will enhance our understanding and modeling of earthquake behavior in California and globally.” Although we cannot prevent earthquakes, understanding their patterns – including how and where they propagate – brings us closer to developing more effective early warning systems and improving earthquake preparedness.

Explain the methodology of the paper summary

The researchers used precise drilling at three sites along the Alpine Fault in New Zealand. They first documented naturally exposed fault surfaces and the slip line patterns within them, recording details such as structural positions and path lengths. Then, using hand tools ranging from shovels to fine tools, they exposed more of the faulty surfaces while being careful not to create artificial marks. They used innovative techniques such as pouring water from plastic bags to clean surfaces without damaging them. All observations were documented through detailed field drawings and photographs for later analysis.

Distribution of results

The team performed 233 slipline measurements on 146 individual tracks, with curvature visible in 30 of them (21%). The lengths of the curved tracks ranged from 10 cm to more than 3.5 m, with an average deviation of about 15 degrees. In both the Hokori River and the Martyr River, they found evidence of earthquakes traveling in both directions, while no anticlines were observed in the Chasm River. The last event (1717 AD) appears to have moved from the southwest to the northeast.

Restrictions

The study faced several obstacles. It was not possible to identify the squiggles directly, making it difficult to link specific markers to known historical earthquakes. In addition, even the longest observed slip lines only recorded less than half the expected slip distance of the earthquake. The remote locations of the study sites and the need for careful manual excavation also limited the amount of fault surface that could be examined.

Discussion and takeaways

The study introduces curvilinear clines as a valuable new tool for understanding prehistoric earthquakes globally. The results suggest that seismic gating of the Alpine Fault can allow cracks to pass in both directions, challenging previous assumptions about fault behavior. This has important implications for earthquake risk assessment and emergency planning in New Zealand, especially for population centers that may experience different levels of shaking depending on the direction of rupture.

Financing and disclosures

This research was supported by the Marsden Fund Board with funding from the New Zealand Government, administered by the Royal Society of Te Aparangi. Fieldwork was approved by the New Zealand Ministry of Conservation. The study appears to have no conflicts of interest to disclose.

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