'Earthquake country': What to know about Oregon's 'really big earthquake' | Local and state

Last week, about 60 miles offshore near Ferndale, California, tectonic plates moved beneath the Pacific Ocean, sending seismic waves across the ocean floor that radiated onto land and were felt from Santa Cruz to Medford.

Within seconds, cell phones blared with earthquake alerts throughout cities and towns in California and even Oregon, reaching Ashland, Bandon, Lincoln City and Corvallis.

The Cape Mendocino earthquake was felt in parts of Oregon, but it caused minor damage and no known casualties. The potential tsunami never occurred.

But for some, the quake was a reminder, even a dry run, of a much larger event that could cause catastrophic damage in the Pacific Northwest: the frequently referenced Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake of magnitude 8 and even 9. Frighteningly, as “the really big one.”

Spectators gaze out to sea at the Sutro Baths overlook in San Francisco, California, Thursday, December 5, 2025. A tsunami warning was issued after a 7.0 magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of the Humboldt Peninsula on Thursday morning, but it was later cancelled. (Jane Teska/Bay Area News Group)

Jane Tyska/Bay Area News Group/TNS

The Cape Mendocino quake sent a message: “We live in earthquake country,” said Peter Ruggiero, an Oregon State University professor who works on earthquake preparedness.

Large earthquakes present a unique problem for scientists, citizens and officials thinking about how to best survive them, because they occur so rarely.

“The risk of major disasters that our region faces is something that most people who live here, and certainly anyone alive, have never experienced before,” Rogero said. “In Oregon and Washington, we don't have much of an earthquake culture.”

While Oregonians have no direct experience, significant earthquakes have occurred within living memory. There was the 6.9 magnitude Loma Prieta earthquake that shook San Francisco during the 1989 World Series, killing 63 people and causing extensive damage and thousands of injuries.

The event was caused by a 9.1 magnitude earthquake in the subduction zone, causing widespread destruction, fires and a tsunami with a maximum height of 130 feet. As bad as the earthquake was, that wave was even worse, causing the majority of deaths and a nuclear accident.

Like the Tohoku earthquake, the “really big earthquake” would be a subduction zone event.

In a subduction zone earthquake, one plate slides under the other, causing the upper plate to lift up. In the case of a “really big plate,” that would mean the Juan de Fuca plate subducting beneath North America, pushing North America up and creating a killer wave.

The Cape Mendocino earthquake was a different type of earthquake, a strike-slip event that caused horizontal movement. Water was displaced, but it was measured in centimeters, not metres, said Andrew Meggs, a seismologist from Ohio State University.

The Cape Mendocino earthquake was not in the Cascadia subduction zone, but was part of the same plate boundary system, Meggs said.

And a subduction zone earthquake is coming.

Scientists know that the last major earthquake in the Cascadia region occurred on January 26, 1700 — a quake with an estimated magnitude of 9.0 that caused the coastline to drop several feet and sent a tsunami to Japan.

“Earthquakes don't happen periodically,” Meggs said.

Instead, he said, the pressure builds and builds until it is released.

“The longest time period between earthquakes is about 1,050 years, and the shortest time period is about 150 years,” Meggs said.

The Cascadia subduction zone averages 500 to 600 years, he said. Currently, the Pacific Northwest has gone 325 years without a major earthquake.

The following could happen at any time.

“It could happen in this call, or it could happen in 700 years,” Meggs said.

It's impossible to know when a “really big earthquake” will occur or even how big it will be, but the consensus among experts who work to study earthquakes and prepare the region for shaking and its aftermath is this: a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake is survivable. . But everyone must be prepared for that day to happen.

“This is absolutely overwhelming,” said Gina Tilt, a sociologist who works on earthquake resilience along the coast. “But the thing we say a lot is that those who are thinking about this and preparing are the ones who can weather the storm.”

People watch the waves come in after the earthquake was widely felt across Northern California at Ocean Beach in San Francisco, Thursday.

AP Photo/Haven Daly

An event like the Cape Mendocino earthquake was an opportunity for everyone, from researchers to citizens, to prepare.

For some scientists, this was an opportunity to test the instruments they use, the instruments that record earthquakes and how quickly they can get more instruments into the field to monitor earthquakes, said Erin Wirth, a research geophysicist at the USGS. Test for aftershocks.

“Another thing we can learn from this event is how locations surrounding the earthquake could respond to future earthquake shocks based on how they responded during this earthquake,” she said. “So, for example, did some areas shake more or less than we expected? Did we observe shaking-induced landslides?”

Researchers also look at the human side of earthquake preparedness and are interested in how the response to the Cape Mendocino earthquake impacts their work.

Take, for example, ShakeAlert. It's a relatively new system from the USGS that sent early warnings to at least half a million people last week.

It sends messages to people in potentially affected areas as soon as the earthquake is detected, giving people extra seconds to “land, cover and hold on,” the recommended steps to stay safe in the event of an earthquake.

These alerts are sent through the same process as Amber Alerts, so any phone that receives these alerts will also receive ShakeAlerts.

“ShakeAlert is constantly improving,” said Robert De Groot, ShakeAlert operations coordinator, adding: “These earthquakes are teaching us something new.”

“The system worked as designed and did exactly what we expected it to do,” he said last Thursday.

The Cape Mendocino earthquake was only the second earthquake where the system was activated in both Oregon and California. Not only were notifications sent to phones, but some corporate alarms were set off.

The US Geological Survey reported that the 7.0-magnitude earthquake occurred at 10:44 a.m. on December 5, local time, west of Humboldt County, California.

US Geological Survey

In Medford, alerts were delivered in the Medford School District and at Providence Medford Medical Center, directing people to get down, take cover and hold on, DeGroot said.

However, he said they are always looking for ways to improve the system.

“Every piece of data we get from earthquakes and how the system performs gives us clues on how to improve our earthquake detection algorithms,” De Groot said.

ShakeAlert is part of a much broader system being created to prepare for the actual earthquake, tsunami, and what comes next. Researchers across the Pacific Northwest are looking for ways to improve the chances of as many people as possible surviving the inevitable Cascadia subduction zone earthquake.

Oregon's Department of Geology and Mineral Industries has spent years creating maps of what inundation would look like in the event of different types of earthquakes and tsunamis. They have a tool that allows anyone to put in an address on the Oregon or Washington coast and figure out how to evacuate on foot, noting where bridges might fail and whether they need to run or jog to get to safety.

“The geography of the Oregon coast is such that our tsunami zones are relatively narrow,” said Laura Gable, a coastal geologist with the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries. “There is higher ground that is more accessible to a lot of people on the Oregon coast.”

But, just as with checking a movie theater for fire exits before watching a movie or knowing where to go when an airplane makes an emergency landing, people need to know their routes before disaster strikes.

Kenny Ransbottom walks through debris inside his auto parts store in Rio Del, California, following the earthquake that occurred off the coast of Northern California on December 5.

Godofredo A. Vasquez/The Associated Press

So sociologist Tilt and others are working with the department on ways to make these maps more accessible, especially for people who live on the coast who don't speak English and people who might just be visiting.

In 2020, construction was completed on the Gladys Valley Marine Studies Building, an Oregon State University building constructed not only to withstand an earthquake of magnitude 9 or higher but also as a vertical tsunami evacuation route, accessible 24 hours a day and open to the public.

“There is progress,” Tilt said.

None of these systems or solutions are perfect.

For some people, it was not clear when the warning was issued last week, and how serious the danger was. For some, it was an invitation to get down to the beach and try out the big waves.

Evacuation maps are difficult to find and require knowing your address. In an emergency, you may not know where to look.

Not everyone has a cell phone, a phone that can handle a lot of text, speaks English, reads, sees, or hears.

The most vulnerable people are also the most at risk in any disaster. During the 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan, nearly 60% of those who died were older than 65 years. What happens if you can't receive alerts? What happens if you can't run or walk to safety?

These are the questions officials are working on, with the help of data provided by smaller earthquakes like the Cape Mendocino quake.

But individuals and families need to work on it too.

Last week's earthquake should serve as a reminder to everyone: Even in the most severe earthquakes, the larger version of the “really big earthquake” will be experienced by many people. Officials agree on this point: a Cascadia earthquake is survivable. But you have to be prepared.

Have an emergency kit ready. Make sure you have a plan, wherever you are, for what to do in the event of a disaster and make sure your phone gets alerts. If you are on the coast, know your evacuation route.

“We don't want people to panic,” said research geophysicist Wirth. “We just want people to be prepared.”

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