CSU study links climate change to earthquake frequency

The results are also important for seismologists trying to reconstruct prehistoric seismic records and determine recurrence periods of active faults. These hydrological processes over geologic time must be taken into account in those calculations, Gallen said.

“This work suggests that the time of recurrence will not necessarily be periodic,” he added. “You can have periods of time where you have a bunch of earthquakes in quick succession and a lot of time where you don't have any earthquakes.”

The Sangre de Cristo Mountains were ideal for showing tectonic rebound from melting ice, the researchers said. The range is located along the Rio Grande Fault, which has an overall backslip rate that can be used as a baseline. Their research revealed intermittent and faster crevasse sliding rates along the range that corresponds to former glaciers. As the glaciers that had been suppressing the fault melted, the rate of slip accelerated to catch up with the base rate.

“It's basically like a little lever that adjusts the rate at which the fault moves, but that long-term rate is determined by the base rate of tectonic processes,” Galen said.

A public database of high-resolution elevation data for the Earth's surface served as the basis for the study. Hurtado and Galen surveyed the fault using high-resolution GPS instruments to augment elevation data and measure the fault's displacement. The timing of displacement was determined based on the age of the surrounding sediment deposits.

The study, titled “Exploring the influence of glacial melt on fault slip in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Colorado, USA,” was published in November in the academic journal Geology. It has been recognized by the Warner College of Natural Resources as a Distinguished Master's Thesis for 2023. Hurtado graduated in 2023 and now works as an air quality and climate consultant.

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