View | An earthquake in San Andreas is now unlikely. But we still have to plan to prevent a disaster.

We all want the correct prediction, to determine the time of the big event. But rather than focusing on when a particular disaster will occur, we would be better off thinking about what will happen when it happens – and preparing ourselves accordingly. Would you rather receive a two-hour warning that a building has fallen or a building not collapsed in the first place?

Humans face danger by searching for patterns, and we will create them even when they are not there. Our ancestors survived to pass on their genes by recognizing patterns and using them to avoid danger. Today, all science is about finding the sequences that will allow us to predict the future. And we will tend to believe in these patterns, even when the situation is actually quite random.

But the only pattern we found in earthquake timing is that one earthquake can cause another nearby earthquake. Often, the resulting earthquakes are smaller, and we call them “aftershocks.” About 5 percent of the time, the resulting earthquake is larger than the first earthquake, then we call the first earthquake a “harpoon jolt.” Beyond that, earthquakes are random. We can estimate the number of earthquakes that will occur in a region over the next 100,000 years, but the timing of any single event is still unknown.

However, when a formal advisory report comes out from the USGS, it represents a consensus in the scientific community – a sign that the recent earthquake pattern has passed the necessary statistical tests. What should we do in those cases?

First, realize that the risk of a major event occurring is often very small.

A warning means that a certain risk is higher enough than the regular background risk to be noteworthy – but 99 percent of the time, it will lead to nothing. A warning was issued this week because an earthquake sequence is currently occurring near the San Andreas Fault such that it could cause a major earthquake along the fault line itself. But the sequence is small enough (the largest earthquake was 4.6 magnitude) and far enough from the fault (about eight miles) that the probability of triggering a large earthquake is still negligible.

Yes, the risk of a major earthquake along the fault has risen dramatically this week, from 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 100. But in absolute terms, this is still very low.

Second, know that the risk of a major seismic event rapidly diminishes over time. Although the risk is given as a number 1 for a week (say, 1 in 100), this opportunity quickly fades – and now, a few days after the first event, most of the additional risks are gone.

Third, find and use easily available earthquake scientific information.

When earthquakes occur, their magnitude and potential future impacts are well understood and published in the form of National Seismic Hazard Maps. The newly developed Earthquake Early Warning System uses US Geological Survey data to determine when an earthquake is occurring, and sends that information to those in the affected area, possibly before the vibrations reach their locations. Maps should be used to build a more resilient infrastructure. The warning system could also enable preventive measures to be taken, from a dentist removing a drill from a patient’s mouth to residents sheltering safely under a table.

Finally, we must all begin by asking ourselves why we are so focused on when a particular event occurs, whether it is an earthquake or another natural disaster “occurring once in a lifetime”. What would you do differently? Is that something you should have done anyway?

As a society, we need to accept that floods along the Mississippi River, hurricanes in the Midwest, hurricanes in the South and East and earthquakes in the West are completely inevitable – and we should plan accordingly. We don’t know which cities will be hit by hurricanes this year or when the megacity along San Andreas or the Subduction Zone will hit Cascadia, but we do know that these things are definitely part of our future. How do we create a resilient community that can take them in steps?

It’s hard to imagine any earthquake that could kill many Americans or destroy as many jobs as the 2020 pandemic. But for earthquakes and pandemics, all we really have is the scientific knowledge that tells us that these events are ultimately inevitable. Instead of guessing at the exact time, we should use this information to better prepare and respond.

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