View | A geopolitical earthquake hit the Middle East

The Palestinian Authority, led by Mahmoud Abbas, was also stripped of something under the deal, which would force him to come to the negotiating table. It stripped him of the biggest prize in the hole – the idea that Gulf Arabs would normalize with Israel only after the Israelis satisfy the Palestinian Authority’s demands for a state that would satisfy it.

(Free advice to Abbas: Come back to the table now and say you see the Trump plan as a “floor” rather than a “ceiling” for Palestinian aspirations. You’ll find a lot of support from Trump, Europeans, and Arabs for that position. You still have leverage. Israel still has to deal with you. Because your people in the West Bank will not completely disappear, regardless of what happens with the Emirates and Israel.)

This deal is sure to encourage other Gulf sheikhdoms – Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia – all of which have secret and overt commercial and intelligence dealings with Israel, to follow the example of the Emirates. They will not want to allow the UAE to be able to marry its financial capital with internet technology, agricultural technology, and healthcare technology in Israel, with the potential to make both countries stronger and more prosperous.

Three other big winners here are: 1) King Abdullah of Jordan. He feared that the Israeli annexation would revitalize efforts to turn Jordan into a Palestinian state. This threat has been diffused for now. 2) The American Jewish Community. If Israel had annexed part of the West Bank, it would have divided every synagogue and Jewish community in America, between hardliners and anti-annexation advocates. This was a looming disaster. Now gone. And 3) Joe Biden. If Trump succeeds Trump, Biden will not have to worry about the thorny issue of annexation, and he should have the most powerful pro-American coalition in the region to work with.

The biggest geopolitical losers are Iran and all of its proxies: Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Houthis in Yemen and Turkey. This is for a number of reasons. So far, the UAE has maintained a delicate balance between Iran and Israel, not looking to provoke Iran, and deal with Israel secretly.

But this deal is right in the face of Iran. The implicit message is: “We now have Israel on our side, so don’t mess with us.” The massive damage that Israel has inflicted on Iran through apparent electronic warfare in recent months may have given the UAE more breathing room to do the deal.

But there is another, deeper, more psychological message. These Emirates were telling the Iranians and all their proxies: There are really two alliances in the region today – those who want to allow the future to bury the past and those who want to let the past bury the future. The UAE takes the reins of the first and leaves Iran to be the leader of the second.

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