Lori Dengler | The story of the 2024 earthquake – Times Standard

With one notable exception, 2024 has been a benign seismic year. The Noto earthquake that struck the Sea of ​​Japan on January 1 killed 504 people, injured more than 1,300 people, and damaged nearly 180,000 buildings in Japanese prefectures along the Sea of ​​Japan. Economic losses range between $7 billion and $17.6 billion (in US dollars). No other earthquake in 2024 will come close to the impact of the Noto earthquake. Only 57 other deaths due to earthquakes were recorded elsewhere in the world last year.

The Noto earthquake has lessons for those of us who live in California. Unlike the Great M9.1 East Japan Earthquake of 2011, it was not caused by a subduction fault and has a magnitude of 7.5, and is not considered a “major” earthquake. Japan, like California, has many non-plate boundary faults that are quite capable of producing magnitude 6-7 earthquakes and causing severe damage.

We tend to focus on the “big one,” the largest earthquakes on the planet. There is reason to be concerned about massive earthquakes in the M8.5 to M9.5 range – they have a much larger footprint to cause seismic damage and are usually accompanied by large tsunamis. But these earthquakes are relatively uncommon compared to those of lesser magnitude, and often do not cause a large number of casualties. It's earthquakes like the Noto earthquake and the 2023 double earthquake in Turkey (M7.8 and 7.7 with about 60,000 deaths), that cause the most carnage year after year.

Japan is known for its advanced seismic engineering and modern building codes. But, as is the case in California, many older buildings, especially in smaller cities and towns, have not been retrofitted and are still vulnerable to collapse in the event of strong ground shaking. There is highly unstable ground in Japan, and the structural collapse has been exacerbated by numerous vibration-induced ground failures.

Like California, most buildings in less urban areas are made of wood, but unlike our homes, traditional Japanese homes are often topped with heavy tile roofs. This construction method developed over hundreds of years as a way to prevent roof damage in hurricanes but makes it very heavy and more vulnerable to collapse in earthquakes. But our shared timber-frame communities make each of us vulnerable to post-earthquake fires.

Fires are a deadly offshoot of many earthquakes and can be caused by broken fuel lines, overhead burners, and electrical sparks. The Noto earthquake was no exception. A large fire broke out 50 minutes after the quake, eventually burning nearly 12 acres on the Noto Peninsula. Firefighters were unable to effectively respond to the fire due to debris blocking roads, disrupted water supplies, and a tsunami threat that prevented responders from entering areas at risk of flooding.

Fire-prone communities are one of the biggest shared vulnerabilities in Japan and California. A similar-sized earthquake that occurred last year in Taiwan starkly points to the problem. On April 3, 2024, a 7.4 magnitude earthquake struck the east coast of Taiwan near Hualien City. The strong tremors affected more than 15 million people in Taiwan, more than three times the number in Japan, yet only 18 deaths were reported. One of the main reasons for the low casualty numbers is the efforts made in Taiwan after the 1999 M7.6 accident that killed 2,400 people, modifying many structures and replacing wooden buildings with concrete and steel.

Another important lesson from the Noto earthquake is how vulnerable people are after the tremors stop. Less than half of the total casualties on January 1 last year were attributable to vibration or fire damage. Two people died in the tsunami, but the remaining 276 deaths are attributed to its effects – deaths from injuries and illness in the days after the earthquake. Evacuation poses risks, and spending days and weeks in temporary housing or shelters carries risks. Planning for safe evacuation and sheltering displaced people is a large part of emergency management.

While tsunami warnings are still fresh in our minds, it is useful to look at the Noto tsunami and compare it to our experience on December 5. The initial magnitude set by the JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) was 7.5, not much larger than 7.3. Estimation made by the National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC) in Alaska after our earthquake. But the JMA's tsunami alert was part of an earthquake early warning message that was sent to millions of cell phones just seconds after the earthquake began rupturing and was updated several times in the following minutes. In the United States, tsunami warnings are not yet part of the ShakeAlert system, and the first tsunami alert was issued five minutes after the earthquake and updated in half-hour increments thereafter.

JMA is also able to estimate the relative threat of a tsunami shortly after an earthquake. Due to the size, location and type of rupture, a major tsunami warning was issued predicting waters of 16 feet or more. A number of sites in the epicenter area met or exceeded that number, including a peak of about 24 feet in the city of Joetsu, about 60 miles from the epicenter.

Why such a large tsunami for an M7.5 earthquake when our M7.0 earthquake on December 5 barely caused a ripple? First difference – the Noto earthquake was due to a reverse fault that caused vertical deformation of the sea floor while our earthquake was due to a strike-slip fault with horizontal slip. The second was a submarine landslide caused by the Noto earthquake.

It is easy to understand these differences in hindsight, now that we have had enough time to delve into the details of the earthquake and the post-earthquake and tsunami investigations have been completed. But when a large earthquake strikes near populated areas, NTWC has only minutes to make a call. We cannot determine the mechanism of the rift rupturing as quickly as the JMA – partly because we do not have available external instrumentation. Current technology at NTWC does not have the ability to quickly predict the size of a potential tsunami.

Underwater landslides are always a concern when a strong tremor occurs near the coast. We know that our coastal cliffs are vulnerable to failure even in the absence of vibrations, and that sea cliffs such as the continental shelf, the Eel River and the Trinidad canyons are similarly vulnerable. This was the main reason why our tsunami warning remained at 70 minutes. The NTWC wanted to ensure that no failure occurred on the sea cliffs.

We share another similarity with Japan. We are both still experiencing aftershocks. The Noto earthquake has produced 160 earthquakes of magnitude 4 or larger since the mainshock, the largest being a magnitude 6.2 on December 31, almost a year later. It will likely continue for several more months before finally returning to a “normal” background level. We can expect our aftershocks to continue for some time as well and not be too surprised if our largest aftershock appears months from now.

The Noto earthquake was not only the deadliest earthquake of 2024, but also the largest. The year 2024 was notable for having very few large earthquakes. Only 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater were reported last year, the third-fewest since 2000, and all those other years saw larger quakes. Fewer major earthquakes mean fewer large tsunamis. Of the 10 tsunamis listed by NOAA's National Environmental Information Center last year, the largest were caused by landslides, not earthquakes.

I do not attach much importance to our low balance for 2024. Earthquakes do not occur on an hourly basis. There have been only six years in the past 25 when no magnitude 8 has been reported, and three of them have been reported since 2021. Between 1946 and 1966, eight earthquakes of magnitude M8.5 or greater were reported, followed by nearly 40 With a strength not exceeding 8.4 degrees. . Since 2004, there have been six earthquakes of magnitude 8.5 and larger. I hope we enter another quieter period of four decades, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Lori Dengler is professor emeritus of geology at Cal Poly Humboldt and an expert in tsunami and earthquake hazards. Questions or comments about this column, or want a free copy of the “Living on Shaky Ground” preparedness magazine? Leave a message at 707-826-6019 or email [email protected].

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