Advanced artificial intelligence system for rapid epicenter detection and tsunami prediction of Nankai earthquake

Yomiuri Shimbun

21:00 Japan time, 4 January 2025

A team of researchers has developed a system that uses artificial intelligence to more accurately and quickly estimate the focus of a potential earthquake in the Nankai region, reducing the margin of error from 20 kilometers to just a few kilometres.

The Japan Marine-Earth Science and Technology Agency team hopes to use the estimate to determine the height and arrival time of the tsunami, as well as the areas that may experience the most severe tremors, thus facilitating appropriate evacuation measures.

The system is expected to become available to the public in the spring and be used operationally in the future.

The Nankai Basin earthquake refers to seismic events that originate from the Nankai Basin, which extends from off the coast of Shizuoka Prefecture to Miyazaki Prefecture. Historically, earthquakes originating from the trough have occurred at intervals of 100 to 150 years.

According to the state Earthquake Research Committee, there is a 70% to 80% chance of such an earthquake occurring within the next 30 years. The potential impact is severe, and in a worst-case scenario, 231,000 people could be killed or missing.

Immediately after an earthquake, the Japan Meteorological Agency estimates the concentration using seismic waves observed at different locations. This information is necessary to issue emergency earthquake alerts and tsunami warnings. However, as seismic waves travel through complex underground structures, the models used for rapid estimation are simplified, leading to inconsistencies.

For example, in August 2024, an earthquake in the Hyuganada Sea off Miyazaki Prefecture triggered an alert that initially estimated a depth of 20 kilometers. However, it was later corrected to about 30 km.

To address these errors, the team created a system that automatically estimates concentration using a 3D model that reflects the geological features of hypothesized seismic zones in the Nankai Basin. Performing calculations using 3D models usually requires a significant amount of time, but the new system can perform such calculations in seconds through the use of artificial intelligence.

In simulations focused on the Nankai Basin, the system had a much smaller margin of error compared to conventional methods, sometimes up to about 20 km. The calculations also took about five seconds. The time it takes to issue an earthquake emergency warning is expected to remain close to the current average of about 20 seconds.

In order to put it into practical use, it is necessary to show how accurate the system is in making estimates such as earthquake intensity and tsunami heights. The agency plans to let researchers use the system soon and have them test the system using data from previous earthquakes.

“I hope that private companies will use this system to predict tsunamis within a few years,” said Ryuichiro Agata, a research fellow specializing in computational seismology and a member of the research team. “Eventually, we aim to integrate it into the Japan Meteorological Agency's emergency earthquake and tsunami warning systems.”

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