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Written by Gordon Williams

If you live in Washington state, you're likely familiar with the phrase “big.” This indicates the possibility of a catastrophic earthquake occurring along the Cascadia subduction zone, a major geological fault line that runs beneath the Pacific coast of North America. When that happens — and earthquakes occur along a subduction zone every 300 years or so — the loss of life and property can be enormous.

Now, it turns out that the fault line is more complicated than anyone assumed. Instead of a single fault, the area appears to consist of four separate fault lines, each capable of causing an earthquake. This discovery comes from recent studies of the underwater portion of the fault line. These findings increase the pressure on relief agencies to plan a response to a major disaster, when it comes. As a reminder, the last such earthquake occurred in 1700.

To explain the situation, you need to know that the world is located on huge tectonic plates that float on the surface of the Earth. Simply put, earthquakes occur when two such plates rub against each other. The subduction zone works best for this scenario. In the case of the Cascadia Subduction Zone, one plate – the North American Plate – slides over the Juan de Fuca Plate, pushing it downward.

Eventually, the downtrend will reach its limits, the Juan de Fuca plate will stop sliding down and the result will be “big”. What happens next is anyone's guess.

The earthquake could cause severe damage along the coast, with the death toll potentially reaching thousands. Locally, entire portions of Seattle, Tacoma, Portland, and Vancouver would be leveled. An earthquake could trigger a tsunami powerful enough to send a wall of water crashing across Puget Sound. Collapsed bridges and blocked highways will confront rescue forces trying to reach the scene.

New discoveries about the complex nature of a subduction zone add a new level of complexity to the disaster planning process.

Jenny Carkner, who heads the Red Cross disaster response in the Northwest region (Washington and northern Idaho), recognizes that her regional responders will likely need to secure their homes and families. Therefore, the disaster response will be managed and staffed at the Red Cross National Headquarters located in Washington.

Damage is expected to be much less in eastern Washington than near Puget Sound, and there will be a flood of people seeking to escape the worst of the quake by heading east. How successful they are in this regard will depend on road and bridge conditions. Ultimately, many earthquake survivors will be prevented from heading east due to broken highways and collapsed bridges. Help must come from outside.

As for what Western Washington might look like after the quake, look at the plans prepared by the Kitsap County Department of Emergency Management (DEM). The county is located just across Puget Sound from Seattle. Projections show that the province has been divided into 27 small islands due to collapsed bridges and washed-out roads. Plans call for each small island to be equipped with emergency supplies for use in such a situation.

The obvious question is, what plans can you make to survive a major disaster and survive whatever it brings to your area?

The answer is to continue doing what anyone living in Washington should do: prepare to survive an earthquake. The same plans you make to survive a catastrophic earthquake that happens once every 300 years will keep you alive and functioning through the many smaller quakes that hit the state.

Keep emergency supplies of food and water on hand in case an earthquake leaves you isolated and cut off from supplies. Have plenty of flashlights and a battery-powered radio, as well as plenty of extra batteries. Keep extra doses of much-needed medications on hand. Remove heavy items to lower shelves and use heavy-duty latches to prevent cabinet doors from opening suddenly in the event of an earthquake. Remove any heavy objects hanging above the beds.

Ask your fire department and emergency management for the best advice on withstanding an earthquake. What plans do these agencies have for housing and caring for earthquake victims? Since emergency assistance after an earthquake must come from local resources, what plans do these agencies have for providing aid to your community?

The big event may not come for years — maybe not during your lifetime — but the more you plan ahead, the better your chances of getting through the big event, whenever it happens.

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