Tibet earthquake highlights seismic risks to dams around the world

BEIJING – A 6.8-magnitude earthquake in Tibet that killed 126 people and destroyed four water reservoirs this week highlights the dangers posed by a hydropower construction spree by Asian giants China and India in one of the world's most remote and earthquake-prone regions, experts say.

Some 68 major dams in the Himalayan region tap the vast hydropower potential of high lakes and rivers – of which only a fifth have been tapped, researchers say, but they face seismic risks.

Another 101 are in the planning or construction stages.

Even before the quake was centered in Tengri County, the northern gateway to the Mount Everest region, experts expressed concern about the two countries' hydropower ambitions there, which was embodied in China's plan to build the largest hydropower dam in the world.

The project, more than three times the size of the Three Gorges Dam, the world's largest, is set to provide 34 gigawatts of clean energy vital to China's goal of reaching peak carbon emissions before 2030.

“A strong earthquake could cause direct damage,” Fan Xiao, a former chief engineer at the Bureau of Geology and Mineralogy in Sichuan in southwest China, wrote in an October 2022 article about the province’s Motu project that was approved in late December 2024.

Fan, who warned that the project is located in an area prone to strong earthquakes, did not respond to questions from Reuters on the messaging app WeChat about the article.

Hydropower projects in the remote, mountainous region highlight the tension between the risks of building there and the huge demand for clean energy in China and India, the world's No. 1 and No. 3 greenhouse gas emitters, respectively.

Earthquakes have caused damage to dams in the past, particularly by landslides and rockslides. Research published in 2018 showed that a massive earthquake that struck Nepal in 2015 knocked out nearly a fifth of its hydropower capacity for more than a year.

Geologist CP Rajendran of India's National Institute for Advanced Studies said building more dams in the Himalayas is not sustainable, citing environmental concerns and earthquake risks caused by the weight of giant reservoirs on fault lines.

Aging tanks

China's Ministry of Water Resources has raised concerns about the aging of the reservoirs, as more than 80 percent of them were built between the 1950s and 1970s.

However, it did not respond to a fax request for comment and did not provide details of the tanks damaged in the Tibet earthquake.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry said that the Motu project has been thoroughly tested for disaster prevention and mitigation.

Dr Wolfgang Schwanghardt, a University of Potsdam expert who studies land formation and changes, said tectonic activity in the area could make the site dangerous, although analysis is needed to identify specific risks at the site on the upper reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River. surface.

His research in 2018 showed that about a quarter of the region's projects were at risk of moderate to severe damage in a future earthquake.

China says the dam will play a key role in reaching carbon peak and neutrality goals, and will stimulate the economy and create jobs.

Hydropower generation is more reliable and flexible than intermittent wind and solar generation, and helps meet the urgent need to transition away from polluting coal.

But Mr Fan said the project was unnecessary, given the low demand for hydropower in sparsely populated Tibet and the high costs of transporting it elsewhere.

He said the construction of some huge dams in China may be driven more by economics than energy needs.

“The GDP generated by large hydropower projects, as well as increased investment and tax revenues, is a great temptation for the government and relevant interest groups,” Fan added. Reuters

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