A social media post predicts a 'big earthquake' – but is it accurate?

Although the area is prone to earthquakes, an earthquake is unpredictable.

HUNTSVILLE, Ala. – Los Angeles and the Southern California region have been ravaged by fires fanned by fast-moving winds over the past week. The deadly fires are still under investigation, and the last thing residents need is another disaster.

But that's exactly what one social media account is claiming – a “major earthquake possible” between Sunday, January 12 and Monday, January 13, specifically in the Los Angeles and Ventura County areas. The post shared on X on Saturday includes a map showing a “98% probability” of seismic activity in that area.

So let's check – do Los Angeles and other Californians need to be careful in anticipation of an earthquake?

Is a social media post claiming the possibility of a major earthquake in the Los Angeles area a reliable prediction?

No, earthquakes cannot be predicted on any scale, regardless of historical context. Community feedback added to X's initial post stated that the claim is an example of fear mongering.

Earthquakes occur when pressure builds up along fault lines and suddenly releases. But errors don't follow a fixed schedule or pattern. Some remain dormant for centuries while others are repeatedly ruptured.

However, scientists have tools to assess earthquake risk, which is different from forecasting. Hazard analysis looks at historical patterns, geology, and fault activity to identify areas most vulnerable to earthquake exposure. For example, the San Andreas Fault in California is a known hotspot.

Then there are early warning systems. These don't predict earthquakes either, but they can give a few seconds' notice once seismic waves are detected. These crucial seconds can save lives and give people time to take cover or begin critical operations.

Bottom line, posts like the ones we saw this weekend can create unwarranted panic by giving time frames for “potential earthquakes.” While scientists can't predict it yet, ongoing research into fault mechanics and early warning systems continues to improve preparedness.

For now, the best defenses are education, planning, and building resilient infrastructure.

The VERIFY team works to separate fact from fiction so you can understand what's true and what's false. Please subscribe to our daily newsletter, text alerts and our YouTube channel. You can also follow us on Snapchat, Instagram, Facebook and TikTok. He learns more.”

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