Earthquake Aftershocks Reveal the High Cost of Democracy in Vanuatu – Academia

Among the ruins of the 7.3 magnitude earthquake that struck Vanuatu's capital, Port Vila, on December 17 and snap elections scheduled for January 16, new leadership is needed to reset the country's development path.

Persistent political turmoil has hampered the Pacific nation's ability to deal with a complex set of social and economic shocks in recent years, caused by climate-related and other natural disasters.

The earthquake is conservatively estimated to have caused US$244 million in damage, and the Vanuatu government's ability to pay for the disaster response and elections, as well as to resume the delivery of public services, will require strong, committed and stable leadership.

In 2024, Vanuatu was expected to record economic growth of around 1%, as it struggles to emerge from the red zone and return to pre-pandemic levels.

In contrast, Vanuatu has a more positive, though somewhat contradictory, democratic profile.

According to the State of Global Democracy Initiative, Vanuatu is one of the most democratic countries in the Pacific Islands region, currently ranked 45th in the world.

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But this performance comes at a high price. Leadership changes are frequent, with 28 prime ministerial terms in just 44 years of statehood, 20 of them in the last 25 years, the highest rate of change in Melanesia.

The effects of troubled leadership and political instability are very clear. Government decision-making and service delivery are very slow. In Vanuatu's Parliament, the legislative process is often delayed due to regular motions of no confidence, with several important bills still awaiting MPs' attention.

Last October, for example, Vanuatu's government proposed a 2025 budget that was 10% smaller than the 2024 budget, due to lower economic activity and lower government revenues.

Parliament was unable to approve this year's budget due to its sudden dissolution on November 18, just two and a half years into a four-year political term. This is the second consecutive presidential dissolution of Parliament, as the previous dissolution occurred in 2022 after two and a half years of his term.

The draft law approving the 2025 budget is now awaiting the formation of the next legislative body for approval. Meanwhile, the costs of quake recovery and election administration are piling up under the caretaker government.

As economic hardship worsens and industries face slowing economic growth in multiple sectors, voters are looking for leadership that can stabilize the rising cost of living.

The new government will need to urgently address long-overdue and unresolved issues regarding reliable inter-island transport and air connectivity, premium teacher salaries and greater opportunities for the country's troubled youth.

The youth unemployment rate is 10.7 percent and rising.

Democracy with political stability is the holy grail for Vanuatu. But obtaining this legendary and miraculous award comes with costs.

In response to civic and youth activism calling in late 2023 for political stability and transparency, the last parliament approved a national referendum to make political affiliation more accountable and end party mobility. The rules will come into effect in the next parliamentary session for the first time.

The referendum passed successfully on May 29, 2024, but cost US$2.9 million. The 2022 early elections require $1.4 million, and the 2025 elections are expected to require another $1.6 million.

Whatever the outcome of the 2025 snap elections, the next government will need to refocus attention on stabilizing Vanuatu's economic and development trajectory.

The next legislature, the 14th, will need to commit to stability for the benefit of the people of Vanuatu and the country's development. The most urgent priorities for any new government should be the passage of the 2025 national budget and the implementation of the earthquake recovery and reconstruction plan.

Over the forty-five years that followed throwing off the yoke of British and French colonialism, citizens enthusiastically performed their duty in elections in the hope that a national leadership would emerge capable of moving Vanuatu forward. Now their faith appears to be waning, after the 2022 elections saw voter turnout, a key indicator of the health of a democracy, fall below 50% for the first time since independence.

These elections therefore need to see a return on the significant investment made in Vanuatu's democratic processes, both in terms of the financial cost borne by successive governments and donors, and, above all, political gains for voters.

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The writer is a researcher from Vanuatu and currently a PhD student at the Australian National University. The opinions expressed are personal.

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