Probability of M8-M9 Nankai earthquake hitting Japan within 30 years rises to 'about 80％'; Earthquake Committee head urges public to 'stay alert'

Yomiuri Shimbun file photo A Japan Meteorological Agency official discusses the earthquake that struck off Tokyo's Miyazaki prefecture in August.

Yomiuri Shimbun

13:10 Japan time, 16 January 2025

The probability of a magnitude 8 to 9 earthquake occurring in the Nankai Basin within the next 30 years has risen from “70% to 80%” to “about 80%,” according to a report released Wednesday by the state Earthquake Research Committee. .

As for earthquakes expected to occur periodically, the probability of an earthquake increases the longer time passes without it occurring, according to the committee.

A Nankai Basin earthquake is expected to occur approximately once every 100 years, and the probability increases with each year that has passed since the last earthquake.

However, there were no unusual phenomena observed in the Nankai Basin area. As a result, the probability of an earthquake occurring there within the next ten years remained unchanged from the previous year at “about 30%,” and the probability of an earthquake occurring in the next twenty years remained unchanged at “about 60%.”

University of Tokyo Professor Emeritus Naoshi Hirata, who chairs the committee, said: “The numbers [of 70% and 80%] It means that an earthquake can happen at any time, so the things to prepare for remain the same. “I want the public to stay alert.”

The report also included the committee's findings regarding the possibility of earthquakes occurring along active internal faults. Such faults have a relatively long time interval between earthquakes, so the probability of one occurring along those faults is lower than that of the Nankai Trough.

It has been calculated that the earthquake along the fault that caused the Great Hanshin Earthquake of 1995 had a 0.02% to 8% chance of occurring within 30 years before it occurred.

According to the report, there are eight active faults with earthquake probabilities exceeding 8%, including the Itoigawa-Shizuoka-Kozusen Fault Zone and the Hinago Fault Zone, which are believed to be related to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake.

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