The probability of a huge earthquake in the Nankai region has risen to 80% after the M6.8 Kyushu earthquake, Japan.

The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP), the earthquake research committee of the Japanese government, has increased the estimated probability of M8 and M9 earthquakes in the Nankai Basin within the next 30 years to about 80% after a M6.8 earthquake struck the nearby area. Kyushu coast on January 13.

The revision was announced on January 16, following an annual recalculation of earthquake probabilities across Japan based on historical seismic activity. The probability was previously estimated at 70 to 80% and was updated based on historical seismic activity trends.

The Nankai Trough, an undersea trench extending about 800 kilometers (500 mi) from Shizuoka Prefecture to the southern coast of Kyushu, is a major subduction zone where the Philippine Sea plate collides with the Eurasian plate. It has produced some of Japan's most destructive earthquakes that often generate powerful tsunamis along the Pacific coast.

HERP recalculates earthquake probabilities based on the time elapsed since the last major event. The probability of a major earthquake in the Nankai area was first given in 2013 at 60 to 70%, then rose to 70% in 2014, then increased to 70 to 80% in 2018. The latest revision has now raised the probability to around 80% .

Naoshi Hirata, chairman of the committee and professor emeritus at the University of Tokyo, explained that the revised probability was not influenced by abnormal seismic activity but was part of a routine annual update.

“This probability is a number that indicates that it would not be surprising for an earthquake to occur at any time,” Hirata said.

“We would ask people to continue to be prepared.”

The M6.8 Kyushu earthquake on January 13 was centered 11 kilometers (7 miles) east-southeast of Miyazaki and affected nearby cities including Saito and Tsuma. The earthquake caused minor structural damage such as a broken window at Miyazaki Railway Station and bottles falling from shelves at a liquor store. Some train services were temporarily suspended and the Kyushu Shinkansen bullet train reduced its speed between Kumamoto and Shinyatsushiro.

The JMA issued a tsunami warning shortly after the earthquake and raised it at 23:50 UTC (14:50 UTC). A 20 cm (7.9 in) tsunami wave was observed in Miyazaki while a 10 cm (4 in) wave was recorded in Kochi. The Sendai Nuclear Power Plant in Kagoshima Prefecture reported no violations, with radiation levels remaining stable.

Yamashita Yusuke, an assistant professor at the Disaster Prevention Research Institute at Kyoto University, analyzed the event, noting that the quake occurred near the site of the M7.1 earthquake in the Hyuganada Sea in August 2024. He suggested that movement in a previously fractured section may have had an impact. It caused the recent earthquake but noted that it was unlikely to affect the possibility of a huge earthquake in the Nankai Trough area in the future. He also noted that the seismic energy released was roughly half that of the August 2024 earthquake.

The JMA and Japan Geospatial Information Authority held a press conference on January 14 and explained that the earthquake originated at a tectonic boundary near the western edge of a potential megaseismic zone in the Nankai Basin. They reiterated that this event was part of ongoing regional seismic activity and urged the public to remain prepared for more potential earthquakes in the coming week.

A M7.1 earthquake in the same area prompted the JMA to issue its first ever additional information warning for the Nankai Trough Earthquake on August 8, 2024, warning of the increased likelihood of a major event. These warnings are designed to inform the public of potential seismic risks under new protocols established in 2019, without necessarily predicting an impending disaster.

The Nankai Basin has a history of producing large earthquakes. The most dangerous event on record occurred in 1707 when all parts of the trough exploded, causing widespread destruction and the last known eruption of Mount Fuji.

Large earthquakes struck in pairs in 1854 and 1944 to 1946.

References:

1 80% chance of a massive earthquake in the Nankai area within 30 years – Asahi Shimbun – January 16, 2025

2 The probability of a huge earthquake in the Nankai region of Japan rises to 80%: government committee – Kyodo News – January 16, 2025

3 The probability of a massive earthquake in the Nankai region is now 80%, according to government committee reports – The Japan Times – January 16, 2025

Article writer profile

Rishika holds a Master's degree in International Studies from Stella Maris College, Chennai, India, where she received a Gold Medal, and an MCA from Mysore University, Karnataka, India. She previously worked as a Research Assistant at the National Institute for Advanced Studies, Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru, India. During her tenure, she contributed as a junior writer to Europe Monitor on the world politics website and as an assistant editor for The World This Week. Her works have also been published in The Hindu, demonstrating her expertise in global affairs. Rishika has also received the District Level Women Empowerment Award in Haryana, India, in 2022.

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