Japan fears a catastrophic earthquake could occur in the Nankai region within the next 30 years

Geologists don't have a crystal ball that can predict future earthquakes, but earthquake specialists in the Japanese government believe the odds of a major quake are creeping upward. According to the Japan Earthquake Research Committee, there is an 80 percent chance of a major earthquake occurring in the Nankai Basin within the next 30 years. This is slightly higher than the 70 to 80 percent offered last year.

An official at the Earthquake Research Committee secretariat told AFP: “79 years have passed since the last earthquake, and the probability of another earthquake is increasing every year at a rate of about one percent.”

The Nankai Basin extends about 900 kilometers (559 miles) along the south of Honshu Island, Japan's largest island. It is a subduction zone located where the Philippine Sea plate subducts beneath the Eurasian plate, making it a hotbed of seismic activity.

It's famous for megaquakes, powerful seismic events that occur when one tectonic plate pushes down another, releasing massive amounts of energy.

If the Nankai Basin were to experience a major earthquake, it could be devastating – a risk that the Japanese government takes very seriously. The massive Nankai earthquakes are a top priority for Japan's disaster management strategy, and the government has put forward plans to prepare for a possible explosion.

One of the recent Nankai earthquakes has earned the grim distinction of being one of the world's deadliest earthquakes. In 1946, an 8.1 magnitude earthquake triggered by the Nankai River claimed 1,362 lives. The quake destroyed or damaged more than 36,000 homes in southern Honshu and Shikoku, while another 2,100 homes were swept away by the 6-meter (20-foot) tsunami.

Map of Japan showing the location of the Nankai Basin.

But predicting these events is not easy. According to the USGS, scientists cannot predict earthquakes, noting that no one has ever predicted a major earthquake. However, they point out that it is possible to “calculate the probability of a large earthquake occurring in a given area within a given number of years.”

In other words, it's not like a weather forecast; It's like knowing the odds in a card game – you can't predict your next card, but you can estimate the probability of a particular hand based on the deck of cards.

The new threat level from the Japan Earthquake Research Committee is similar to estimates published in the journal Scientific Reports in 2023, which found there was a 70 to 80 percent chance of a Nankai Trough Megathrust occurring in the next three decades.

Researchers also predicted that the powerful Nankai earthquake would be devastating, potentially causing greater damage than the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, in which the death toll could exceed 320,000.

However, they once again emphasized that their predictions were not consistent at all.

“Statistically speaking, Nankai Trough earthquakes are more likely to occur once every 90 to 150 years based on previous earthquakes,” Professor Yoshioka Shoichi, a professor at the Urban Safety and Security Research Center, said in a 2023 statement.

“Strong earthquake predictions must accurately extrapolate three factors: the location of the earthquake, the time of its occurrence, and the magnitude of the earthquake. Of these three factors, the timing of an earthquake is particularly difficult to predict,” he added.

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