The quake likely affected 20,000 TSMC tranches – most of which will likely be cancelled

Although the recent 6.4-magnitude earthquake in Taiwan did not cause major damage to TSMC and its factories, it would still require the company to halt production and likely force it to recalibrate its tools. ComputerBase reports that as many as 20,000 chips could be affected during processing.

A 6.4-magnitude earthquake struck southern Taiwan at 12:17 a.m. on Tuesday, with its epicenter in the town of Dabu in Chiayi, at a depth of 9.4 kilometers. TSMC evacuated employees from central and southern production sites and halted production. The strongest tremors were at Level 5 in the Southern Taiwan Science Park and Level 4 in the Central Taiwan Science Park, while the Hsinchu facilities recorded lighter Level 3 tremors.

Key sites affected include TSMC's Fab 18 factory in southern Taiwan's Science Park, a major 3nm production centre; Fab 8, Fab 200mm; and Fab 14, which produces chips with 4nm and 5nm manufacturing technologies, according to a TrendForce report. Apparently, the necessary production outage could affect up to 20,000 wafers processed in these factories. It is possible that the production of some of these chips will be completed. However, most chips will likely be scrapped, which will disrupt chip shipments to at least some companies, meaning lower-than-expected availability for some products.

The 10,000 to 20,000 affected chips represent a small portion of TSMC's production. The company processed 3.418 million 300mm equivalent wafers in the last quarter, and its average daily production is about 37,000. Hence, the earthquake will not significantly affect TSMC's financial situation. However, if Fabless loses a batch of its processors, it could hurt its sales.

Regarding TSMC's factories, inspections revealed no structural problems or outages in utilities such as electricity and water. The buildings are designed to withstand earthquakes of up to 7 magnitude, so the current earthquake does not pose a major problem for TSMC. However, high-precision chip-making tools installed in factories are highly vulnerable. Although the machines are designed to absorb vibrations, they are calibrated to make chips, and in the meantime, they may need to be recalibrated, which will take some time. The good news is that some of the costs will likely be reimbursed by insurance. Despite the disruptions, TSMC is expected to quickly resume full production.

A similar event in April 2024 caused TSMC losses of $92 million. At that time, equipment in areas with tremors greater than magnitude 5 required three days to return to normal, and some of the chips that were being processed were lost.

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