Editorial: Research to assess earthquake risks has proven to be insufficient

Japan has intensified its scientific efforts to survey active faults and publicly disseminate seismic risk information following the Great Hanshin Earthquake that devastated parts of Kobe and surrounding areas in 1995.

This initiative stemmed from a critical reassessment of the belief that the Kansai region in western Japan, which includes Osaka, Kobe, and Kyoto, was not prone to large earthquakes.

The 7.3-magnitude earthquake, which killed about 6,400 people, was caused by active faults in the fault zone, which experts have acknowledged have existed in the region for a long time. The Rokko Mountain Range stands as a testament to this seismic history as it was formed by the uplifting and tilting of giant masses of rock along these fault lines during repeated past earthquakes.

After the earthquake, the government established a headquarters to promote earthquake research. Its mission is to keep the public informed about earthquake research and to promote its work in a “coordinated and integrated” manner.

Large-scale surveys of active faults have enabled scientists to calculate the likely magnitude of earthquakes arising from these faults at different locations, as well as the probability of earthquakes occurring within a given time frame. This information has been made public.

These increasingly sophisticated surveys now provide a uniform overview of earthquake risk across Japan. These data, along with information on trench-type earthquakes, have been used to develop comprehensive seismic hazard maps.

However, effectively communicating the risk posed by active bugs to the public remains a challenge. Over the past three decades, a series of earthquakes originating from active faults, such as the 2004 Chuetsu earthquake in Niigata Prefecture, the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake in Kumamoto Prefecture, and the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake in Ishikawa Prefecture, have led to unexpectedly severe damage.

The frequent use of terms such as “exceeding expectations” and “unknown active errors” in the wake of these events highlights the limitations of our current understanding.

A series of unexpected challenges arose during this period, including an earthquake triggering another earthquake caused by a nearby active fault, multiple faults interacting in unexpected ways to generate large earthquakes, and even seemingly low-risk faults producing devastating earthquakes.

Compared to trench-type earthquakes, earthquakes caused by single active faults occur less frequently and are less understood. It remains important to continue scanning and searching for these defects.

An interdisciplinary approach, integrating not only seismology, geology and geomorphology but also insights from the humanities and social sciences, is essential for effective research and risk communication. But collaboration that truly values ​​and integrates expertise from these diverse fields is lacking.

Bureaucratic division also hampered progress. For example, active faults in areas in the Sea of ​​Japan that caused the Noto Peninsula earthquake were surveyed by the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology and monitored by the Ministry of Lands for tsunami prediction. But these findings were not incorporated into assessments conducted by the Earthquake Headquarters, whose administrative operations fall under the Ministry of Science.

Serious doubts exist regarding the ability of the Earthquake Headquarters to promote “coordinated and integrated” earthquake research through smooth cooperation among relevant organizations.

Despite recent improvements, current policies appear insufficient to effectively communicate risks to local residents living around active faults. It is time for a comprehensive reform designed to integrate expertise from diverse fields, investigate the root causes of recurring problems and re-evaluate risk assessments and their application to disaster preparedness.

Merely repeating superficial measures without addressing the underlying causes of past failures will not lead to real solutions.

We must once again internalize the hard lessons we learned 30 years ago.

– Asahi Shimbun, January 23

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