A familiar story or a political earthquake?

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Good morning. I did not write about opinion polls much because, in order to be frank, I do not think that the intention to vote is very important at this stage to the government in what will be a parliament for a period of four or five years.

What should matter the work is the very narrow spending round involved in Rachel Reeves budget plans in the middle of the road through Parliament and the unconfirmed road, frankly, to anything that seems to be a budget at any time in this aspect of the upcoming elections.

It seems that the choice of NHS priorities on reducing the number of people waiting for optional treatment seems to be the wrong measure of chasing when it comes to voter consent and results in NHS. Waiting lists to reach primary care (or in simple English, GP date), I think it's more important.

In addition, the government may explode after its course due to the economic repercussions of Donald Trump's presidency, or through the international coalition, which is actively wished for the “International Governorate” battle in the Robert Shreimsley column this week.

These are great challenges, frankly, how the government does not tell us much. How the opposition tells us about some useful things, and a set of polls in the UK shows that the UK reform is pushing the governors to third and pushing the work to first. Some ideas about what this means to note today.

The policy is liberated within Georgina Quich. Read the previous edition of the newsletter here. Please send gossip, ideas and comments to Insidepolitics@ft.com

You say you want a revolution

Historically, the children supporting the minor parties tended to tell us more about the main opposition party's health more than they had future horizons for the relevant secondary party. At the end of 1981, the SDP/Liberal alliance was exploring approximately 50 percent of the votes and was 20 degrees Celsius before the ruling conservatives. In the summer and early fall of 2019, the liberal democrats in Joe Swinson were conjugating as well as the Reform Party in Nigel Faraj now. The last average repair offers is one point before conservatives and only three points behind the Labor Party.

Below is one of the ways to consider the current polling: The government of work has tried awareness of great and unpopular things early and is still enjoying a small opinion. Even when voters are very satisfied with Keir Starmer, they do not look at Kemi Badenoch, but for small limbs. So we might only say, “This is a familiar story that will end in the same way”: that is, the government will be re -elected and the opposition will do very badly next time.

Although “this time is different” is often dangerous to say in politics as it is in funding, there are moments in politics in which we see real transformations. Conservatives who are replaced as a major party from the right will be a great shock, given the success and success of the Conservative Party. But this will also be in line with what happened to the right parties around the world at the present time.

The biggest problem for conservatives is that their message about reform is essentially “Nigel Farraj is right. Do not vote for him. This message did not succeed with Valerie Pescaric or Ron Desantis in their battles against Marine Le Pen or Donald Trump, respectively. Why will you work with Kimi Padnosh in the UK? Whatever she does, her party will not be convincing with the voice of the rebellious populist right to reform. The Conservative Party is one of the oldest parties in the democratic world: it is the definition of an ancient brand! It is not surprising that the reform is gained in the polls and picks up the previous donors in this environment.

What I think we can say with confidence is that the performance of reform is a bad sign of the current approach to conservatives. But we cannot yet know whether this is the familiar story of “the non -popular government, the weak opposition, or the escalating third -party, or the re -election of the government” or whether the “international governor” will really lead to the re -delivery of British policy.

Now try this

I am going to Sri Lanka next week to attend the wedding of a friend, but inside the politics you will continue with me with a group of great guests. We see you a week on Tuesday, yet you spend it, I wish you a great weekend!

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