Lori Dengler Research risk of Northern California earthquake-scales

This week was the North California Workshop (NCEHW). I have joined the other three -day seismology professionals of talks and virtual discussions on the latest research and main weaknesses on our side of the state.

I am not a fan of virtual meetings. I like to interact face to face and stare on the computer screen for three days can be backward. I am excluding NCEHW where the organizers do a great job in the sessions with provocative titles such as “I am afraid that I cannot do that Dave: responsible use of machine learning and artificial intelligence”, and keep all conversations with less than 15 minutes.

For me, it is a quick way to reach steam in the current research directions and the most important problems in my field. There were a lot of conversations that were above my head, but it was great to taste what the next generation of Earth's scientists was doing. I will summarize many topics that I hope you will find interesting.

In the world of “Over My Head” is artificial intelligence, but I feel a better feeling of how it works, its benefits and restrictions. The best term “machine learning” because technology is neither artificial nor independent of the decisions that people make in creating its structure. The essence of machine learning is to identify patterns and requires this data to train algorithms on what is considered successful and what is wrong.

Computer devices are really good in breaking huge amounts of data at high speed. One of the areas where automated learning has advanced earthquake is to identify very small earthquakes that the human eye is impossible to identify. Doing this requires good data and admitting how the training results. Automated learning here to stay. It is important to understand its basic assumptions and consider it a useful tool with restrictions.

The workshop was not just leading science like machine learning. I took two broad perspective sessions looking for weakness and recovery after the earthquake. Infrastructure such as roads, bridges, power and communications are vulnerable to earthquakes. We all agree that fire, police and medical are listed in the list of the first respondents. I doubt that many of you will put schools in the same list.

Schools do not play a role in responding to the safety of life, but they are necessary for societal response and recovery. We have learned a lot about closing schools during Covid and the harmful effects on the health of the child and academic progress. Unless it is widely published, the influence on parents and their ability to work.

People most affected by the closure of schools are middle -class and low -income workers. These are the people in the food, transport, manufacturing and construction industry. They run medical emergency services such as acute care, physiotherapy, ambulance driving and employee care houses. It is necessary for almost all business and organization. These are the people who work as their shoulders, and if they do not have a safe place at reasonable prices for their children, they will not be able to go to work, and our world cannot work.

There was a great offer in NCEHW by Melanie Gall of Arizona State University on the ALICE (Asset Limited, Entry, Employee) and the extent of many Americans even in a slight disruption in their income. Less than half of the population cannot bear an additional $ 400 of unexpected costs. One of the most common reasons for unexpected costs is children out of school.

Natural disasters are turning points and can quickly slip a middle -class family to poverty. There is a wealth of data from the hurricane, the wild raid, the flood societies and earthquakes are no different. In addition, these are the most needed workers in recovery and reconstruction. It is time to rethink schools as a critical infrastructure for community health and flexibility.

For the pure scientific “Gee Whiz”, the session was placed on Dendrochronology (tree rings) at the top of my list. Trees are important time tools on the windows of seismic interest – when were the last or next earthquake? The strong can be shaken on the trees and affects growth, and appears as unique abnormal cases in the patterns of the loop. It was great to hear Alison Carroll from Cal Polly Humoult, finding evidence of last San Andreas earthquakes in Rudwoods and Jesse Luloueh from the nature of nature on ages for Cascadi and northern San Andreas tearing from the trees that were killed in huge ground expenditures.

NCEHW spotlight on the northern coast. After all, we have dominated the shaking scene over the past four years. Patrosy late our earthquake on December 5 included 16 conversations that ranged in a wide range, including Erithquake, how the earthquake caused a slide on neighboring rift systems.

This earthquake has sparked one of the largest post -event postpartments ever. More than 120 instruments were installed on the beach in the first two days after the earthquake and nine sensors below the ocean abroad in a central area. These matters allow intensive tools a much better discovery for final shocks and post -trauma deformation. It will take months to analyze all the entire information, but this is the most intense scrutiny that the Northern Coast earthquake has ever received.

Sometimes one is really lucky and has tools in place before the earthquake. Voice sensor (DAS) was distributed on the northern coast before December 5, 2024, and Mainshock M7 caught. DAS uses optical fibers for communications as seismic reveals, and we were lucky to cooperate USGs and Cal Poly Humboldt and communications communications to test this new technology. The December 5 sequence has produced a set of data that confirms DAS not only detection of earthquakes but may also reveal new details about the deep structures. This will lead to more information, as the current nine -mile cable will be expanded to a much larger network where more optical fiber lines are installed along the other roads in Humoult Province.

The week's sessions not only confirmed new technology, such as DAS. Several presentations looked back, albeit using a modern lens. I wrote about the earthquake on December 21, 1954, M6.5. We are close to some answers. Peggy Hellweg, which recently retired from Berkeley Laboratory to earthquake, is used, her new spare time to re -invest the earthquake. I found many original recordings and collected a number of experts to transfer the earthquake, the type of rift, and influences on the local community. Signs refer to the location of the Fikkle hill and perhaps on the interface of the CASCADIA division.

Why is this important for people who are not earthquake scientists? This is the data we need to make informed decisions on our earthquake risks and take social measures to reduce them. In December 2022, we have seen how an earthquake could get the wind out of society. Rio Dell is still recovering from the M6.4 insult that took a direct goal in the heart of society. The more details that we can discover about the whereabouts of our mistakes, the frequency of their rupture, the more the ground suggestions they produce, and our societal effects, the more we can plan early.

Almost all the actions have been supported in NCEHW for this week somewhat by the federal government. Usgs is a federal agency and many studies have been funded through the Law of National Earthquake Risk or NSF. Studies provide such data needed to build symbols, seismic design, and land use. They led to Shakilrt and an early warning earthquake. Sarah Menton, geophysical scientist in the United States of America, emitted from NCEHW and closed with observation, “If this happens, this may happen.” I would like to add – and it will happen again.

Lori Dengler is an honorary professor of geology at Cal Polly Humoult, an expert in tsunami and earthquakes. Questions or comments about this column, or do you want a free version of the Living on Shaky Ground? Leave a message on 707-826-6019 or send an email to Kamome@humboldt.edu.

It was originally published: Feb 1 2025 at 1:30 pm Pacific time

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