Question and Answer: Ur -led research and housing quality are determined as dangerous factors in earthquake deaths

Health and Medicine General Health Search | Science UW News Blog

February 3, 2025

Taipei horizon. The Chi-Ci 1999 earthquake struck about 90 miles south of the Taiwanese capital and is still one of the most destructive earthquakes in the history of the island. Credit: Frank Chang via Pixiabay

The vast majority of earthquakes strike inside the ring of the fire, a series of volcanoes and tectonic activity that wraps around the Pacific coast. But when the earthquake strikes, areas with the strongest shaking are not always places that suffer from the greatest damage.

Take the huge Chi-Ci earthquake, which caused extensive damage in Taiwan in the fall of 1999 and killed more than 2,400 people. Distribution of damage follows an uneven pattern: the deaths caused by the earthquake were focused in populated city centers, but on the outskirts of those cities and external margin. A similar pattern occurred after earthquakes in China, Chile and Nepal.

After more than two decades, researchers at the University of Washington have identified a hidden factor behind what they call “suburban syndrome” – immigration. Workers often move from small rural communities to the external edges of cities, which provide greater economic opportunities but often have low -quality housing that are likely to suffer from greater damage during the earthquake. The danger grows more when immigrants come from low or tribal villages.

The results indicate that emergency management organizations should pay more attention to migration and housing quality when developing disaster mitigation and response plans.

UW News spoke with the co-author Tzu-Hesin Karen Chen, an assistant professor in environmental and occupational health sciences and urban planning, to discuss suburban syndrome, “How can migration amplify the differences in the impact of the disaster, and what the United States can tolerate by US officials learning from a Taiwanese disaster.

Your work in this study depends on an existing model that evaluates the risk of the earthquake by considering migration patterns and the movement of the weak population. What is the current model missing, and why is it important to fill these gaps?

Tzu-Hesin Karen Chen: This risk assessment model was used by many organizations at the international level and in the United States. For example, FMA uses a risk model similar to the evaluation of the risks, weaknesses and potential disaster effects. They usually make a comprehensive evaluation of geographical risks within states and provinces, identifying areas with possible largest impacts, then formulating the preparation plan.

In the United States, temporary local immigrants and illegal immigrants are not always officially registered in government systems. One of the common causes is the fear of deportation or other legal repercussions. Thus, when a government agency such as FEMA specializes resources to prepare for disasters or recovery, relying on registered population data can reduce the support required in certain areas.

In Taiwan, the issue of our study, many migrant workers who move from rural areas to urban areas do not update their registered place of residence. They still register them again in their hometown, as in a tribal area. It is not logical to registration, because they have multiple functions within one year in different places. To reduce expenditures, some workers are looking for the lowest possible rent, and their rental housing may not be officially registered. These can be informal residential structures, such as a metal floor added to the top of a concrete building, which does not correspond to safety regulations. Unofficial in this process can help reduce the cost of her living, but it can also leave them more vulnerable to disasters.

How did you start in this research?

TKC: I will share my personal story, but I also want to acknowledge their participating employees for their years of risk assessments. For me, I started in 2010, when I volunteered in a tribal area in Taiwan teaching computer skills. Give this more lessons for me than anything you had taught. I have learned how teenagers often move from their tribal areas to the nearby cities to take over construction functions during the seasons outside the issues. These jobs pay more than agricultural work, but they also require very physically and often lack workers such as career security and health insurance. Seeing it put the seeds in my mind.

When I was a master's student, a team of the National Center for the Slipping and Academic Cinemas in Taiwan was evaluating the risk of the Chi-Ci earthquake using exposure, weakness and danger frame. They have already published a basic assessment of the risks, and they continued to develop an extended study by integrating spatial statistics. This cooperation ultimately developed into studying in this paper.

The Covid-19 epidemic also formed this study. I encountered news about how migrant workers are stuck in urban areas in India. Because of the closure, they were unable to continue their work, and their crowded living conditions left them in greater danger during the epidemic. I started wondering: How can we transform from a pure statistical model to something more feasible? How can we bring immigration to the discussion center?

The final batch came from the work of colleagues in UW. I have noticed initiatives for non -documented students and research efforts on environmental justice and health equality. For example, the research of the participant's authors, Diana Sebalos, was particularly motivated. We read and wrote back and forth to improve the framework and discussion in this paper.

How did you merge the deportation data into the largest exhibition form, and what did you exist?

TKC: At the time of the Chi-CI earthquake in the late 1990s, we had no detailed deportation data. Today, the new search uses mobile phone signals to track people, but these data were not available at that time. So we adapted the radiation model-a model that is widely used to predict human migration-to appreciate the flow of immigration and use it as a new means of estimating migrants from low-income and tribal areas. This introduced new variables to integrate into the great risk model.

Most of our findings support previous studies, where we can see, logically, if there is a stronger terrestrial movement, there is likely to be more deaths. This is a very clear way to think about how disasters occur. However, it is not just a material story. We also confirm that in areas where the income is less, there are more deaths. Income is a known risk factor in weak theory. What is unique in this study is that we experienced whether the increase in immigration flows leads to an increase in deaths, and we found that this is true.

Tell me about the deportation model. What is estimated?

TKC: We have applied and adapted the radiation model to measure the various deportations groups. The basic idea of ​​the radiation model comes from a simple model called gravitational model. In this context, gravity indicates the idea that the larger population has a stronger “clouds” of people in nearby societies. The model assumes that for some place, the number of people who want to migrate to cities near the size of the population of these cities depend. The largest cities tend to attract more people.

If the distance is very far, it costs a lot of travel, so the model will expect a fewer immigrant. But if the city is closer or even far, but it has a very large number of population, it will be a more attractive destination, which increases the flow of immigration.

The radiation model depends on these principles and adds another layer. It is considered competitors along the way. In other words, the flow of migration may also be affected by cities or other opportunities that fall between the starting point and destination.

At first glance, it seems clear that more immigration will lead to a higher death in a specific area, just because there are more people at disaster strikes. Is this the main driver, or are there other factors in play?

TKC: logically, if there are more people, the percentage of deaths is equal, then there must be more people who die from a specific event. But we found it not only about the population. There are two additional workers: when migrant workers are from lower income areas, or when they are from tribal areas, these factors significantly contribute to increasing deaths in the places where you migrate.

Our hypothesis is that it relates to housing safety. Migrant workers tend to move to cities, and when cities are more expensive, wealthy workers may be able to secure housing that provide better disaster protection. However, workers from tribal or low -income tribal areas tend to settle in urban areas where housing options may not meet affordable prices, making them more vulnerable to earthquakes.

Why did you choose to study this earthquake from 1999 in particular?

TKC: The research team that invited me to work in this project was interested in the Chi-Ci earthquake, partly because it was one of the most teams in the history of Taiwan. After 20 years, there is still a conference focusing on the Chi-Ci earthquake that brings local and international researchers to talk about it.

How wide are you applying the results you have reached? Can it help us better understand the risks in other areas exposed to the earthquake in the world, such as, for example, northwest of the Pacific Ocean?

TKC: It is important to consider this risk evaluation as a tool for preparing for future risks. When the next earthquake occurs, migrant societies are likely to face high effects if housing safety policies do not improve.

I think the migration component is globally important, even outside Taiwan. There has always been a paradox, which is a disaster management dilemma: because immigrants are often not visible, they suffer from a little support. But making it visible can sometimes lead to exclusion and discrimination. This model represents migrants in the geographical sense rather than identifying each person individually through government monitoring, which can address this challenge. By protecting his identity while continuing to calculate immigrant population, the model may help ensure that their needs for housing safety and resource allocation.

Among the authors participating in this study are Diana Sibelos from the Ministry of Environmental and Professional Health at the University of California. Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin from the Ordinary National University of Taiwan, Thung-Hong Lin of Academia Sinica in Taiwan; Gee-Yi Liu and Chin-Hsun Yeh from the National Center for Seismic Engineering in Taiwan.

For more information, call Chen on [email protected].

Tags (signs): College of Complied Environments • Department of Environmental and Vocational Health Sciences • Department of Urban Design and Planning • Diana Sebalos • earthquakes • Karen Chen • Public Health School

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