The earthquake patterns reveal a Mamara error that directs a big seismic energy towards Istanbul

Overview of Marmara, with the urban area of ​​Metropolis Istanbul (red contour) and Marmara's main mistake (red line). The orange circles represent the trendy-estimated earthquakes, with CL 1-4 indicating groups of earthquakes. Black stocks represent the preferred rupture direction. Accurate analysis shows that the most frequent trend for the spread of rupture is 85 degrees north, and thus towards Istanbul. Credit: Chiang Chen, GFZ

A new analysis of earthquake rupture directions provides basic visions of assessing risks and earthquakes in urban areas, especially with regard to the main Marmara error near Istanbul in West Torke.

Based on the relationship between the trend of rupture and the trend of seized seismic energy, a team of researchers led by Dr. Xiang Cheng and Professor Patricia Martinez-Garzon from the Hemhlotz Center in GFZ for Geographic Science in Potsdam, Germany, and has shown that Quakes in the Marmara region transmit a large amount of energy in the direction.

Their studies were published in the journal of geophysical research letters. They analyzed 3 3.5 milliliters of earthquakes in this area. The decisive patterns that have been unveiled can affect the willingness of future seismic events in one of the most populated cities in the world.

Earthquakes are a natural phenomenon that can lead to devastating effects, especially in populated areas. In particular, understanding the behavior of these seismic events is very important to relieve risks and enhance readiness.

In recent years, it has become clear that the energy transmitted by seismic waves can be stronger in certain directions – in the direction of rupture – and weakening in others, which have important consequences for the capabilities of damage in populated areas.

Sea Marmara analyzes on the basis of smaller earthquakes and modeling

A team of researchers, led by Dr. Cheng and Professor Martinez-Garzon from the Helmhultz Center in GFZ Earth Sciences in Botsdam, Germany, investigated these directional effects. They analyzed 3 3.5 allocated earthquakes from ML size> 3.5 in the Marmara Sea, west of Istanbul. Smaller earthquakes often occur, and therefore can be studied in greater details, as they are a plan for “big” that occur rare but with greater effects.

In their studies, the research team compared the wavelengths designed and measured to calculate the source mechanisms, then measure the earthquake periods in different directions to estimate the directional effects of moderate earthquakes in the area of ​​Istanbara.

The results reveal that most of the earthquakes studied below the Marmara Sea, west of Istanbul, often shouting. This leads to more energy directed towards the capital. Medium trends at 85 degrees from the north, are closely corresponding to the main Marmara error strike.

“This trend indicates that the earthquake is more clear in Istanbul during such seismic events,” says Dr. Xiang Chen, the first author of the study and the post -DOC world at GFZ.

This information is particularly vital given that the main Marmara error is delayed in its seismic cycle, which means that the large earthquake is late. This study does not reduce concerns about the effects of a large earthquake in the region.

“Depending on the place where a large earthquake in the future may lead to a nucleus, asymmetric rupture patterns may lead to an increase in the movement of the earth towards the urban center in Istanbul,” says Professor Patricia Martinez-Garzon, the leader of the working group in section 4.2, and scientific study and the author opposite the author opposite the study.

Favorite trends of the earthquake rupture using one -sided and asymmetric models of 𝑀𝐿 3.5 earthquakes along MMF. (A) The surface distribution of trends, rupture and source mechanisms. The 3.5 resolved earthquakes with color coding and arrows that indicate the angle of thesmalls appear in the direction of the rupture. Blue lines highlight the four groups analyzed in (B, C). (B) Pink diagrams of the earthquake rupture trends obtained for each group. The accumulated yellow rose charts show the results of the mono -direction that passes the T test. (C) Source mechanisms are approved for events belonging to the opposite groups. (D) A rose scheme of preferential rupture trends for all the earthquakes that have been analyzed. Credit: Geophysical Research letters (2025). Doi: 10.1029/2024gl111460

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Recommended considerations for seismic risks maps

Upon estimating the seismic risk maps of some areas, the preferential trend in which the earthquakes that radiate its energy are not taken into account.

“We want and plan to include the directional effects in the next generation of seismic risk maps used in earthquake engineering, and such results are essential to enable this development,” says Professor Fabrice Couton, co -author of the study and head of seismic danger and danger dynamics.

The data for this study has been partially delivered by the Gonaf Border Observatory (Gonaf), which has been operated in the Marmara region since 2015 by the GFZ Helmholtz Center for Earth Sciences, in cooperation with the Turkish Presidency for Emergency Management and Emergency Management (AFAD). They include different types of devices, including earthquake measuring devices that are installed in pests to accurately monitor and measure the earthquake activity in the region.

“The main goal of our observatory is to better monitor small and moderate earthquakes in the Marra region, to prepare as much as possible when a large earthquake was torn near Istanbul,” added Professor Marco Bounaov, head of the section 4.2, Geological Mechanics and Promotion of Gonaf Geographical.

The effects of urban planning and the protection of the population

The implications of this study emphasize the necessity of urban planners, policy makers and response coordinators of emergency situations to integrate detailed seismic risk assessments into their planning frameworks.

“The evaluation of the effects of potential earthquakes based on improved scientific methodologies can significantly enhance the flexibility of infrastructure in Istanbul and its societies,” Patricia Martinez-Garzon.

This research not only sheds light on the seismic behavior of Marraa's main error near Istanbul, but it is a decisive reminder of the constant threat that earthquakes pose to urban environments around the world. When cities are increasingly at risk due to population density and infrastructure challenges, understanding the nuances of seismic activity are still vital to protecting societies.

More information: Xiang Chen et Al Alt, the trend for moderate earthquakes along the main Marmara error, indicates a larger ground movement towards Istanbul, geophysical search messages (2025). Doi: 10.1029/2024gl111460

Introduction from the GFZ Helmholtz Center for Geological Research

Quote: The earthquake rupture patterns reveal a Mamara error directing a large seismic energy towards Istanbul (2025, March 14) that was recovered on March 14, 2025 from https://phys.org/news

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