Seek to shed light on the major earthquake mechanism

The progress that is made in evaluating the active horizon about researching earthquakes? How much progress has been made in this field?

Yoshuka:

Japan is said to have approximately 2000 active defects, and that the headquarters for the promotion of earthquake research works on assessments of 114 main active errors.

For every active mistake, they study when earthquakes occurred in the past, evaluating the strength of the future earthquake in the future, and they announce the possibility of Megaquake in the next thirty years. They have more or less complete examination of active faults on the ground, and they now apply the same evaluation process to active errors on the sea floor.

The prediction of the earthquake revolves around the prediction of the time, location and size of a future earthquake, but current earthquake research has not yet reached the level in which we can conduct actual predictions. However, the development of the earthquake monitoring network means that we are making progress in creating a system that discovers us and notifying them of any movement.

For example, the Hyuga-Nada earthquake in August 2024 caused the first “Nankai TRIGHIIGI Information”. The possibility of a large earthquake has been estimated within 30 years by 70 % -80 %, so I think this is exactly what happened in this case.

What is the specific knowledge obtained with the dense monitoring network?

Yoshuka:

Hi-Net has been able to discover slight movements of deep low frequency earthquakes; The detailed examination revealed that tremors occur in the depths of tectonic plates, from the northwestern part of Chikoko along the southeastern part of the Ki peninsula to the Tokai region. This is the area where Nankai TRAGAI Megaquake is expected to happen.

As I mentioned earlier, the ongoing GNSS observation network made it possible to monitor the phenomenon of slow slipping. In a regular earthquake, tectonic panels move, the accumulated stress capacity of underground, and the rift slides at a high speed, causing the earth shaking. Meanwhile, the slow slippage event is a phenomenon as the plate's boundaries error slowly turns, and the movement can only be observed through the GNSS continuous control network. It was first confirmed in 1997 with the accumulation of the ocean plate below the Bongo channel between Kyushu and Shikoku. Since then, slow slippage events have also been confirmed in other parts of the Pacific edge, including the United States, Canada, New Zealand and Alaska.

Long -term changes can be long -term changes that occur over several months or years, or short -term changes that occur over two or three weeks. Slow-term sliding events occur at a depth of about 30-40 km, which is practically caused by low low frequency tremors. So this led to the idea that the short -term sliding events cause low frequency tremors.

We hope that the computer simulations of deep tremors in low frequencies and slow events will help us understand the main earthquake mechanism and may allow there to be an idea of ​​the date of its occurrence.

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