The atmosphere ran out of the 2023 Tarkay earthquake crisis

On February 6, 2023, a strong pair of earthquakes – which starts 7.8 and 7.5 – heads southern Türkiye and northwestern Syria 9 hours, killing 59,000 people and caused catastrophic damage.

While he was in the area that caused the refreshing earthquake the following month, the geomorphor world at Istanbul University, Tolga Gurum and his team, noticed the presence of a river in the atmosphere approaching the disaster area. They found this anxiety, because the earthquake can weaken the surrounding slopes for several months and perhaps years, which makes them vulnerable to heavy rains.

In a recent study of communications, Görüm and its colleagues have documented the characteristics of the atmosphere river and how it caused floods and landslides, and tragicly, more loss in the already destroyed area. According to the team, the case study shows the need for updated risk models that better combine various risks into the atmosphere and earthquakes, especially since climate change is expected to increase in some rivers in some areas.

One storm in 20 years

“This has been the heaviest rains in the region in the past twenty years.”

As for the study, scientists analyzed the global climate data from the European Center for Medium Range weather forecast that V5 (ERA5). The data revealed that the atmosphere, which grew up on the Red Sea, carried the humidity of more than 99.99 % of all events recorded in the region. When this humidity struck the southern bull mountains in Türkiye on March 14 and 15, 2023, the resulting upward air flow along the slopes produced severe rain.

“This has been the heaviest rains in the region over the past twenty years,” said Gurum. In the Turkish city of Tut, the storm delivered up to 183 millimeters (7.2 inches) of rain within 20 hours. In addition, warm temperatures in melting snow in the mountains caused immediately before the arrival of the atmosphere, leaving the soil saturated with water and reducing its stability.

By analyzing the force of shaking, slope in the terrain, and slope position, scientists estimated that the power of the hills – the ability of the soil and rocks to resist the slip when exposed to a force – in the Tut area has weakened by 52 % – 77 %.

A river in the atmosphere struck the town of Tut 36 days after two strong earthquakes, which started the catastrophic landslides. Credit: Tolga Görüm

The consequences were severe. “The atmosphere struck the atmosphere, and it caused a large deposit movement, and more than 20 people were killed,” Gourom said. Twelve of these deaths were inside the study area. The resulting ground collapses, debris flows, and floods have disrupted the continuous recovery efforts of the earthquake.

The disaster was the result of unfortunate time. Using my account model, scientists have played seismic simulations that occur in different seasons and follow the possibility of ground collapse over 5 years. They found that if earthquakes occurred during the summer or autumn instead of winter, the recovery period did not coincide with the river season in the atmosphere, and it would have been a significant reduction in the risk of landslide.

“The study highlights the importance of remembering that there is a legacy of risk. It is extremely important to continue to follow up what is happening so that we can make sure that we are recovering more quickly and to recover in a more disturbing and more flexible way,” said Ben Leschenski, a civil engineer at Oregon State University who studied successive risks but did not participate in the research.

Expect the worst

Preparation of contemporary disasters may become increasingly relevant. Using 40 years of data, the researchers showed that Türkiye has witnessed a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of the atmosphere, most likely to be driven by climate change.

The landslides and floods that followed the atmosphere in the earthquake area that were damaged by roads and bridges, which prevents recovery efforts. Credit: Tolga Görüm

This trend extends beyond Türkiye to other active regions around the world. “On the Pacific Coast [of the United States]Gurum pointed out that the frequency and size of the weather rivers are higher than our region, “adding that Southern California is similar to a Tarkay seismic manner.

“This paper … enhances the argument that we need to think about these simultaneous risks.”

Bruce Malaamoud, a geophysic scientist at Durham University who did not participate in the study, pointed out that it can be dangerous when multiple risks coincide, because government agencies that focus on different risks are operating independently, so their responses are not coordinated in disasters. “What is important in this paper is that it enhances the argument that we need to think about these simultaneous risks,” he said.

After spending time in the disaster area after earthquakes in 2023, Görüm saw damaged cities and conflicts of response teams to save people; He understands more than most of the need to warn societies of additional risks. “It was like a nightmare,” he said.

He said it is a tax to work in these circumstances, but at the same time, it is very important. You have to learn from this type of events. “

-Drew chapman (@Andrewchapman.bsky.social), Science writer

Quote: Chapman, a. (2025), the atmosphere River exacerbated the Türkiye 2023, EOS, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025e250132. Posted on April 8, 2025. Text © 2025. Authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0EEXCEpt where the indication otherwise, images are subject to copyrights. Any reuse without explicit permission from the author of the copyright is prohibited.

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