Can the Myanmar earthquake help increase the strength of the army?

When the Earth was shook in the center of Myanmar on March 28, many in the country of Buddhist major waited for its effects to undermine the repressive military rule-they stumbled on the belief that natural disasters could indicate a retreat from the advantage of Karmiya for hikers of those in power. Instead they saw it was an enthusiastic system to take advantage of the humanitarian aid of legitimacy amid a continuous civil war.

In hours that followed a fatal earthquake of 7.7, the streets of Mandalay and the epic – which are not far from the earthquake center – were a war zone. Survivors were diluted through debris to their free loved ones, without any sign of the help of the authorities. The capital of Myanmar, NayPyidaw, was alongside the Mandalay and epic areas the most difficult blow. The death toll in Myanmar exceeded 3,600 by April 7, and was still climbing with the start of rescue efforts last week.

In a rare move, JUNTA announced the speedy state of disaster and issued an appeal for international aid after the earthquake. However, despite the subsequent tremors and the injured citizens who fill hospitals, reports from the armed resistance movement indicated that in the days after the earthquake, the army continued air strikes against the resistance groups in several areas – including the epic area, as well as Cashin and Rakhin.

The discussion between some civil society groups and humanitarian networks soon erupted on response strategies – whether to interact with the military council or refuse to cooperate with the regime.

On the one hand, peace makers or moderates who argued that it may be necessary to work with the Military Council for direct human coordination. “We need an immediate ceasefire … to provide humanitarian assistance.

The National Unity Government in Myanmar (NUG), a parallel administration that includes some legislators who have been neglected in the country's 2021 coup, announced a partial endowment in the areas of severe damage in an attempt to facilitate rescue efforts. NUG also offered the publication of its volunteers in the Junta -controlled areas. A few days later, prominent ethnic armed organizations in the states of Rakhine, Shan and Kasheen announced a temporary Trox, and the Military Council received its example on April 2 – a day after its soldiers fired warning footage towards the Chinese Red Cross convoy.

However, by April 10, the military regime had carried out at least 160 air attacks, as nearly half of it occurred after publicly announced its truce.

On the other hand, some of the factions supporting the resistance have rejected it with JUNTA, warning that the system could take advantage of the disaster to tighten its grip on power. Just two days after the earthquake, 265 civil society organizations in Myanmar have published a letter calling for assistance to overcome the military council and instead it will be directed through local communities, and the guns resistant.

They also mentioned the world with the dark history of Myanmar to respond to disasters. During a nargis hurricane in 2008, the former military regime in Myanmar appointed and converted to express general support for a constitutional referendum. While Myanmar faced a wave of Covid-19 infection after the 2021 coup, the regime was restricting, delaying or re-filling out external assistance.

Recently, the United Nations Human Rights recently indicated, the Military Council showed “in preparation for help in weapons” after a hurricane in 2023 and Typhoon Yagi in 2024, which led to the blocking of relief on the areas that are seen as not frightening of the regime.

For a moment after the March earthquake, Myanmar's military and resistance leaders agreed to at least one thing: the country that needed external assistance to the citizens who were already tampered with a continuous crisis was. However, the response to the emergency situation quickly revealed the country's political rift lines and speculation about whether the disaster can stimulate the change of the system.

Although the generals of Naypyidaw may vibrate, they are far from surrendering or curbing their brutality. As the United Nations official indicated that the Myanmar army had previously used crises to strengthen its power. In the past, the military regime prohibited aid to the resistance -controlled areas. Recently, I told the Taiwanese search and rescue team to bend after the earthquake, while allowing the Chinese teams to reach.

The earthquake represents a dark opportunity for the army to drop the control of relief efforts – and thus claim that it is still the legitimate ruling authority. Although Junta does not prevent relief organizations from entering Myanmar, it usually allows those examined. By reducing access, the army can imagine itself as the first capable response and control of the delivery of aid.

Constant armed conflict also constitutes aid decisions. The Military Council blocked the weakening of its opponents, as is the case during a hurricane, which struck the state of Rakhine; The regime has also prevented help to the areas controlled by the Arakan rebel army despite the ceasefire. To date, in challenging the declared Truces, the army continues to conduct bombing and offensive attacks throughout the country.

JUNTA losses may be stimulating to take advantage of the earthquake to enhance its legitimacy. Since the February 2021 coup, control of 95 cities has lost various resistance groups, according to a monitoring peace. As of December, the British Broadcasting Corporation's analysis indicated that the army controls only 21 percent of Myanmar, although it still dominates the densely populated major cities, including some of the most difficult earthquake injury.

JUNTA has also faced diplomatic isolation since it took power in 2021, as she lost appreciation in major international forums and struggling with rejection of global and regional partners. For example, Asian recruited the military government, except for high -level meetings and depriving Myanmar of an opportunity for the heads of the bloc in 2026. The United Nations refused to sit on the military council’s envoys. Some countries have realized a symbol.

In the aftermath of the coup, Western donors freezed the development assistance to Myanmar to avoid financing the army, and fled companies. By late 2022, companies withdrew from 39 countries from Myanmar. Meanwhile, the United States, the European Union and others imposed sanctions on the leaders and institutions of the Military Council, which somewhat curbed its access to financing and weapons.

These pressures left the regime dependent on support from sponsors such as China and Russia, which still provide some weapons and diplomatic arms.

Instead of weakening the military council, the earthquake can help enhance its strength. In part, this is because the decrease in the US participation has removed critical pressure points. The financing of the Trump administration's financing to the American Agency for International Development-and other agencies that support the supportive forces of democracy and not subject to control-left a vacuum filled by the most authoritarian military council partners-China, Russia and even India-with passion. Beijing alone pledged about $ 14 million in aid after the earthquake.

China and Russia in particular will earn with their investments to gain influence and contracts in reconstruction efforts. They may secure exclusive or preferential deals in infrastructure and energy projects, and increase the financial leverage in negotiating resource extraction rights, arms sales opportunities or military cooperation.

On the other hand, the United States and other democracies remain largely margin, and at best money is transferred through the United Nations while hesitating to engage directly with the Pariah system – there is a ground to waive the less accurate actors.

At the same time, the military regime is expected to delay any political compromise. JUNTA's long -term pledge to hold elections by the end of the year was always unconfirmed; Several multiple time schedules have been offered to vote. If Junta looks that the earthquake is a useful opportunity to postpone the elections, then this will be done. But if you think it is still possible to use elections for legitimacy, you may claim that one is happening anyway.

For the people of Myanmar, the situation remains dark. Humanitarian aid cannot be separated from politics in authoritarian countries, even during a natural disaster. If the international community helps in the military council and reaches its average, it may reduce some immediate suffering while strengthening a repressive system. If it exceeds the regime completely, the Military Council may restrict aid and punish those who they provide, as he did before.

There is an average method: for the international community to work with local humanitarian networks-communication groups, monasteries, the Red Cross, and even NUG-relief teams to get helpful in hard-to-reach areas. Foreign actors must pay for the humanitarian corridors or distribution associated with Asyan, which the system can accept without feeling undermining.

Above all, constant international attention is necessary. The earthquake may not bring the system change in Myanmar, but the world's conscience should be concentrated on the plight of the country even as the forms of destruction decreased. The generals may survive this disaster, but their strangling should not go on the future of Myanmar without challenge by those who have the ability to help and influence.

Allowing Punta to convert this disaster, which has not been verified by risks that enable the dictatorship and condemn millions of people to prolonged misery. Despite emergency aid flows, diplomats and United Nations agencies must insist on transparency, distribute fair aid, and continue to pressure for a real political solution.

Myanmar needs more than one charity: it needs constant solidarity and pressure for the freedom in which its people died.

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